Universidad de Chile vs Libertad
Estadio Nacional de Chile
24/05/2012, 21.30 (02.30 BST)
As expected the first leg was a tight and intriguing match in which Libertad took the lead early on only to be pegged back by the quality of Universidad de Chile and in particular Gustavo Lorenzetti. The 1-1 result means that Libertad must score in Santiago to have a chance of progressing, that will suit Sampaoli’s side who can sit back and try and hit the Paraguayans on the counter.
Libertad arrive in Santiago for the game – Photo: D10.com.py
Once again it will be fascinating to see what strategy Burruchaga decides on, earlier in the week Pablo Velázquez spoke of “scoring early and protecting the lead” which leads us to believe that it will be a similar pattern to the first leg. The Guma will come out all guns blazing and try and overpower their opponents in the first 20 minutes before sitting deep. In contrast, Rodolfo Gamarra indicated that the focus was on making the most of any goalscoring opportunities when they arise which is the talk of a counter-attack-side. The Asunción club showed last time they can create chances against La U and are able to stretch them by exploited the flanks but the difficulty will be stopping the Chileans from scoring. Last week Libertad were incredibly disciplined yet switched off for a split second which allowed Lorenzetti the space to work some magic, they simply can’t afford to put a foot wrong or they will be punished.
Angelo Henríquez got two at the weekend – Photo: taringa.net
Universidad de Chile will be wary of the strength of their opponents but must be confident they will triumph at home, currently on a 12 game winning streak at home*. The team are of course brimming with offensive talent and enjoy the wide spaces at the Estadio Nacional, they put six past Deportivo Quito in their last game there having previously knocked five past Colo Colo in a league match. At the weekend they recorded four more goals and the 18-year-old Angelo Henríquez was on the scoresheet twice, he is just one of a host of attacking threats.
Libertad XI (probable): R.Muñoz; C.Bonet, C.Nasuti, I.Benegas, M.Samudio; V.Ayala, S.Aquino, V.Caceres, L.Civelli; P.Velázquez, J.A.Nuñez
Prediction: A brave attempt ultimately ending in defeat for Paraguay’s flag bearer in the competition, 2-1
SELECTED ODDS: Uni. de Chile win 1.45, Draw 4.9, Libertad win 8.8; 2-1 scoreline 9.0, Over 2.5 goals 1.67
BEST BET: The short odds on the home win and Overs is actually because people are expecting a rout, if you believe Libertad can grab goal then 1.8 on both teams to score isn’t bad at all
GAME LIVE ON BETFAIR VIDEO
*La U’s winning streak are for all games where they are nominally at home which includes the ‘Estadio Nacional’ and Estadio Santa Laura where they have played recent league games
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STATS & TRIVIA
Libertad last 5 away in Copa Libertadores
Pld 5 W 2 D 1 L 2 GF 5 GA 6
Universidad de Chile last 5 home in Copa Libertadores
Pld 5 W 4 D 0 L 1 GF 15 GA 5
Previous meetings between Libertad and Uni. de Chile
2012 – Libertad 1-1 Uni. de Chile
1977 – Libertad 3-0 Uni. de Chile
1977 – Uni. de Chile 1-0 Libertad
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FULL SQUAD LIST:
GK: Rodrigo Muñoz, Bernardo Medina
DEF: Joe Bizera, Carlos Bonet, Ismael Benegas, Cristian Nasuti, Miguel Samudio, Gustavo Mencia, Jorge Moreira, Nery Bareiro
MID: Sergio Aquino, Luciano Civelli, Víctor Cáceres, Víctor Ayala, Jonathan Santana, Néstor Camacho, Rodolfo Gamarra
ATT: Pablo Velazquez, Cristian Menendez, José Ariel Nuñez, Maurito Caballero
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By Ralph Hannah
Author’s Note: All odds up to date at the time of writing, vía Betfair
