Apertura 2013 Week 5: Guaraní vs General Díaz preview

Guaraní vs General Díaz
Dos Bocas, Asunción
08/03/2013; 19:00 (22:00 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

It is a case of third plays first in Dos Bocas tonight as General Díaz visit Guarani in the opening game of Week 5, this will be the fourth game in Asuncion in consecutive days following the three Copa Libertadores matches and comes in a week when Elton John visited the Paraguayan capital – just so much going on!

Guarani vs Gral Diaz – Photo: D10.com.py

Guaraní have looked good this year, they are pretty much the same side from last year which has brought continuity in team selection and gives the players confidence. Dante López formed a great partnership with Diego Centurión last year and he is now gelling well with Rodrigo Teixeira. López is the more selfless player who makes good runs and creates space for the other striker. In defense the lack of mobility of veteran Julio Cesar Cáceres has yet to be exposed thanks to his own positioning but also the anticipation of Luis Cabral next to him.

Right now General Diaz are in the driving seat – D10.com.py

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me…fool me four times and I’m thinking of packing this in to live on a farm in the Chaco. General Díaz just keep winning and beating both Luque and Olimpia was follwed by last weekend’s comfortable victory against Sol de América. Three cleansheets from the first four games and manager Humberto Garcia must be lauded for the way he has set up this side. Up front Marco Prieto has got the goals and he is usually assisted by Antonio Bareiro although the former Rubio Ñu man misses out with injury.

General Díaz have been so good and although I think their bubble will have to burst eventually I genuinely think Guaraní are title challengers this year and will have enough to break down the Aguilas.

Prediction: 1-0

Best Bet: Neither side has failed to score this year, but both have excellent defences so unsure where value is there, I notice that Guaraní have scored 3/7 goals just before HT so I think Guarani to be winning at HT at 1.86 is the best on offer

Guaraní XI (probable): Alfredo Aguilar; Tomas Bartomeus, Julio Cesar Caceres, Luis Cabral, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Marcelo Palau, Sergio Orteman, Dario Ocampo; Dante Lopez, Rodrigo Teixeira

General Díaz XI (probable): Aristides Florentín; Rolando Sanabria, Walter Cabrera, Lidio Benitez, Marcos Gamarra; Alejandro Bernal, Cristian Sosa, Carlos Vera Segovia, Daniel Ferreira; Marco Prieto, Alfredo Cano

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By Ralph Hannah

Apertura 2013 Week 4: Cerro Porteño vs Libertad and Luque vs Guarani previews

Cerro Porteño vs Libertad is the headline act on Sunday but before the Copa Libertadores competitors face off there is an intriguing match between Sportivo Luqueño and Guarani with Pablo Caballero under great pressure to get a result against his old club. Following last weekend’s derby defeat the Luque coach offered his resignation which wasn’t accepted by the board.

Sportivo Luqueño vs Guarani
Feliciano Cáceres, Luque
03/03/2013; 17:30 (20:30 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

After 270 minutes of football, Luque are yet to register a goal in the Apertura although they have also only conceded once. Guaraní on the other hand are the joint topscorers with seven strikes in three matches and are looking to bounce back from their first defeat of the season. Luque’s last win in this fixture was in March 2011, since then they’ve lost five and drawn two.

Teams in the last game at Feliciano Caceres – Photo: Prensa Club Sportivo Luqueño

Pablo Caballero’s side can’t buy a goal – but it isn’t a new problem – in last year’s Apertura when he managed today’s opponents Guaraní he often struggled to break teams down or find the net. With the departure of last year’s captain and topscorer (from right back!) Claudio David Vargas the auriazul are finding it hard to score. The good news for Caballero is that Benfica have loaned back the extremely talented Claudio Correa who is likely to start today.

Guarani have been looking good this year, even in the defeat to Olimpia they created plenty of chances and threatened to equalise. Luis de la Cruz is doing very well and maturing as a player, Rodrigo Teixeira and Dante López are beginning to gel up front with the Brazilian netting in his last two games. The only injury is to goalkeeper Paulo Aurrecochea who is replaced by Alfredo Aguilar.

This could be yet another win for the aurinegro and more problems for Luque.

Prediction: 0-1

Best Bet: The away win looks like good odds at 2.36

Luque XI (probable): Ever Caballero; Victor Dávalos, Gonzalo Maulella, Denis Caniza, Ariel Coronel; William Schuster, Reinaldo Ocampo, Juan Abente, Juan Pablo Raponi; Ariel Bogado, Claudio Correa

Guarani XI (probable): Alfredo Aguilar; Tomas Bartomeus, Julio Cesar Caceres, Luis Cabral, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Marcelo Palau, Miguel Paniagua, Ivan Gonzalez Ferreira; Dante Lopez, Rodrigo Teixeira

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Libertad vs Cerro Porteño
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
03/03/2013; 19:40 (22:40 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

Arguably the last thing either side wanted before crucial home Copa Libertadores games next week is what is an ‘unofficial clásico’ between the most successful Paraguayan sides this century, Cerro and Libertad have picked up 14 of the 18 domestic titles on offer since 2000. Both managers are treating this fixture with the respect it deserves so expect full strength sides in what promises to be a full-blooded contest.

Oviedo and Velazquez battle it out in a previous meeting – Photo: D10.com.py

Libertad have been so good this year, the only belmish a defeat to Nacional last week, but they bounced back immediately with a fabulous victory over Palmeiras. See my previous blogs for what I think of Guiñazu, but also the best partnership in Paraguayan football is undoubtedly José Ariel Nuñez and Pablo Velázquez – the two complement each other so well. To complete the set let’s look at the defence, by far the best backline in the division, they are so strong in all areas.

Cerro are full of plenty of talent themselves, the Oviedo-Dos Santos-Fabbro trinity is so destructive when it clicks and the recent incorporation up front Angel Romero looks like a fantastic talent. He is full of clever runs and can make the space that Fabbro needs to work his magic. The defence is going to be tested today with a lot of pressure on young Teodoro Paredes shoulders who plays at centre-back.

It could well be a draw, but if anybody is going to snatch this I think Libertad have the edge.

Prediction: 2-1

Best Bet: BTTS seems good because although Libertad are strong defensively they’ve only one cleansheet in 8 meetings with Cerro

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Carlos Bonet, Teodoro Paredes, Luis Cardozo, Sergio Vergara; Mathias Corujo, Fidencio Oviedo, Julio dos Santos; Jonathan Fabbro; Angel Romero, Santiago Salcedo

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Jorge Moreira, Pedro Benítez, Ismael Benegas, Gustavo Mencia; Nelson Romero, Pablo Guiñazú, Osmar Molinas, William Mendieta; Pablo Velázquez, José Ariel Nuñez

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Non-televised matches

Gral Díaz vs Sol de América
Ricardo Gregor, Asunción
03/03/2013; 17:30 (20:30 GMT)
Prediction: 1-0

The league leaders look unstoppable at the moment, well organised and with the ability to score at least once each game. Sol de América deceived us with a fantastic win on the opening day but haven’t been as impressive since. The momentum is with the aguilas and I really think this could be their fourth straight win.

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Capiatá vs Nacional
Estadio de Capiatá, Capiatá
03/03/2013; 17:30 (20:30 GMT)
Prediction: 1-3

Nacional did very well in the previous game against Libertad and have been finding the net in each game which is bad news for the home side who have been leaking goals. Even in the Intermedia they didn’t manage to string together a lot of back-to-back wins which makes me think the points will go to the away side in this one.

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Cerro de Franco vs Carapeguá
Estadio Felipe Gimenez, Presidente Franco
03/03/2013; 17:30 (20:30 GMT)
Prediction: 2-1

Last year’s promoted sides face off in the eastern border of the country, the home advantage is likely to be enough in this one with Carapeguá always struggling outside of Paraguarí department. In fact Cerro de Franco have won all four meetings between these two teams in Primera. If anything there should be goals from both sides with neither defence very strong.

By Ralph Hannah

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Apertura 2013 Week 3: Guaraní vs Olimpia preview

Saturday sees two clásicos the clásico añejo between Guaraní and Oimpia, the oldest rivalry in Paraguayan football, and the clásico Luqueño between Gral. Díaz and Sportivo Luqueño which hasn’t been played in decades.

Guaraní vs Olimpia
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
23/02/2013; 19:00 (22:00 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

The clásico añejo will take place in Sajonia this week, Guarani who scored five in their previous league game face an Olimpia side that are yet to concede a goal in their three matches played on Paraguayan soil in 2013. The aborigen have won the previous two games although before that Olimpia were on a run of 8 games without defeat in this fixture including five wins.

Guarani fans – Photo: Club Guarani

Unsurprisingly Guarani are set to field the same eleven that thrashed Capiatá last week and keep an eye out on Luis De La Cruz who has been in excellent form, he celebrates his 23rd birthday today. Dante López and Rodrigo Teixeira are an interesting partnership with the both fairly phsyical strikers but the former arguably more intelligent in his build up play and movement off the ball. Both Sergio Orteman and Julio César Cáceres, Copa Libertadores winners with Olimpia, are expected to play against their former teammates.

There is a bit of doubt of El Decano’s team selection, it could be a 4-4-1-1 with Alejandro Silva on the right-side of midfield and Jorge Baez in at full back. However if ex-Guarani defener Manzur starts instead of Baez then it will be the more familiar line of three defenders with Silva and Ariosa the wing backs. It seems Salgueiro will partner Fredy Bareiro up front, obviously he is a playmaker by trade so expect him to be operating in the hole and dropping back when they lose the ball to form an extra man in midfield.

Olimpia fans – Photo: Club Olimpia

So far I’ve been impressed with both sides this year, but I think Olimpia are stronger defensively and that could be the difference in this evening’s game.

Prediction: 0-1

Best Bet: I think an Olimpia win is a decent shout today, neutral venue and they have built up good momentum this year.

Guarani XI (possible): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Julio César Cáceres, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos; Iván G.Ferreira, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Luis De La Cruz; Dante LopezTeixeira

Olimpia XI (possible): Martin Silva; Jorge Baez (Julio Manzur), Salustiano Candia, Herminio Miranda, Sebastián Ariosa; Alejandro Silva, Wilson Pittoni, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz; Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro

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Non-televised game

Gral. Díaz vs Sportivo Luqueño
Estadio Juan Canuto Pettengill, Itauguá
23/02/2013, 18:00 (21:00 GMT)
Prediction: 1-2

Luque’s two largest clubs face off in Itauguá with General Diaz’s stadium stll not fit for Primera football. To date Luque have drawn both their matches 0-0 while General Diaz have played just once, a 2-1 win against Capiatá in the opening round of fixtures. On paper the auriazul are stronger so I can see them winning and finally their fans should be able to cheer some goals!

By Ralph Hannah

Paraguay Clausura 2012 title decider – Libertad vs Luque and Rubio Ñu vs Guaraní

Libertad vs Luque
Tuyucuá
16/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

Libertad can win their sixth title since 2006 by beating a Luque team with nothing to play for having secured survival last week. Ruben Israel’s side have scored the most goals and conceded the least so far in the Clausura so they seem worthy candidates of the title. The key two up front have been José Ariel Nuñez and Pablo Velázquez, the former quick and hard-running the latter more physical with a great ability to hold up the ball.

Just one more win needed – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

Luque have relied heavily on captain Claudio David Vargas for his goals but it has been their strong defence that has brought results and a fifth-placed finish that helped keep them up. Pablo Caballero will feel revindicated having had a great 2011 with Independiente before struggling at Guaraní during the Apertura.

Libertad know the championship is within their grasp and I would be surprised if they were to let this slip.

Prediction: 3-0

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Rubio Ñu vs Guaraní
La Arboleda
16/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

A ‘no-pressure’ game in theory for Guaraní, they just need to win and hope that by some miracle Libertad fail to overcome Luque. Guaraní’s season has hinged on the goalscoring form of Diego Centurión and the much-improved creativity thanks to the signing of Sergio Orteman, the pick up in form of Dante López. Of course, Diego Alonso should be credited for the improved organisation and better team selection such as giving Iván Gonzalez Ferreira a starting place.

Guarani and Rubio Ñu meet again – Photo: D10.com.py

Rubio Ñu just want this year to be over, they’ve leaked goals and since Derlis Gonzalez and Claudio Correa headed off to Benfica the albiverde have also had trouble finding the net. They picked up a surprise win against Tacuary but you have to go back to April to find a victory against a non-relegated side.

My feeling is that Guaraní won’t have a problem getting the win, but will it be enough?

Prediction: 1-2

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Championship permutations

Libertad win league if:

• They win
• They draw and Guarani lose or draw
• They lose and Guarani draw causing a three-way tie at the top, Libertad have the best goal difference

Guarani win league if:

• They win and Libertad draw or lose

There will be a playoff if:

• Both Libertad and Guarani lose (playoff between Nacional and Libertad)

 

 

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Sol de América vs Guaraní preview

Sol de América vs Guaraní
Estadio Luis Giagni
02/12/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

Nacional and Libertad’s wins have heaped pressure on Guaraní who must win in Villa Elisa to return to the top. They face a Sol de América side that has only lost once at home this season on a crucial afternoon in the Clausura season. It promises to be a fascinating contest and another test of Guaraní’s ability to shake off the pressure and get a result.

Sol and Guarani go head-to-head – Photo: D10.com.py

The danzarín can’t make the Copa Sudamericana and they have garnered more than enough points under Ricardo Dabrowski this year to be safe from relegation next year. In many respects they have nothing to play for yet they’ve beaten both Nacional and Cerro Porteño in their previous two home games. Diego Vázquez and Alfredo Mazacotte have been particularly good and the reappearance of David Mendieta has also helped with their creativity.

Guaraní have struggled on their travels, unable to win the previous three matches, although their hard fought win over Cerro de Franco and last week’s victory on neutral ground against Olimpia will have raised moral. Importantly Diego Centurión has started to find the net again with two strikes in his previous two outings, something they’ll be relying on again today if they are to get a win.

Prediction: 1-1

Best Bet: BTTS

Sol de América XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Bruno Valdez, Ricardo Martínez, Alberto Goiri, Diego Arrúa; Adolfo Valdez, Edgardo Orzuza, Sergio Rojas, David Mendieta; Alfredo Mazacotte, Diego Vázquez.

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Tomás Bartomeus, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Édgar Aranda; Sergio Orteman, Jorge Mendoza, Marcelo Palau, Darío Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

By Ralph Hannah

Week 19 Wrap: Cerro and Olimpia fall off the pace with defeats to Libertad and Guarani

With three games to go it is a three-horse race for the championship as Guaraní lead Libertad and Nacional by one point. The former two have fairly easy run ins having seen off Olimpia and Cerro Porteño respectively this weekend, Nacional await Cerro in the penultimate week.

Guaraní vs Olimpia
Defensores del Chaco
(1-1) 2-1 – Diego Centurión, Dante López; Fredy Bareiro

Guarani showed their fortitude to come back from a goal down and win, the sixth time they’ve done so in 2012 (only Libertad have a better record, winning 7). While Olimpia’s goal was fortunate, Pablo Aurrecochea fumbling the ball to allow Fredy Bareiro to head in, they will feel aggreived at not being awarded a penalty for a clear foul.

Guaraní for their part relied on the dynamic duo of Diego and Dante, Centurión scoring the first goal after a corner was brought down well by López who found his strike partner in the six yard box. It was Dante López who scored the winner, good work by Dario Ocampo who beat his man and although he went for the one-two, López decided to shoot from distance and it took a slight deflection of his teammate who had continued his run to beat Martin Silva.

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Libertad vs Cerro Porteño
Defensores del Chaco
(1-0) 1-0 – Pablo Velázquez

Unlike Saturday’s match the other big game in Sajonia was won by the team in black and white, Libertad with a solid defensive display to shut out their freescoring rivals in blue and red. Pablo Velázquez got the only goal of the game anticipating Nelson Romero’s cross from the right to get in front of Cerro’s dithering defenders and poke the ball past Barreto.

Velazquez celebrates his winning strike – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

The encounter had plenty of controversy – Jorge Rojas was convinced he was fouled in the area but Cerro Porteño weren’t given a penalty, later on Fidencio Oviedo saw red for what replays indicate was a forearm smash to the back of his rival’s head. In stoppage time Carlos Amarilla and his assistant combined to produce a veritable howler that could cost Libertad dear. Pablo Velázquez was onside as he took one touch to control a through ball before scoring – the linesman flagged him offside and then the icing on the cake he was shown a second yellow by Amarilla for ‘kicking the ball away’ (i.e. scoring). Reminiscent of the crazy decision that went against Arsenal and Robin Van Persie against Barcelona.

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Nacional vs Carapeguá
Arsenio Erico
(0-0) 2-0 – Javier Gonzalez, Carlos Ruiz Peralta

The other title challengers had won earlier in the day by notching up their fourth consecutive win at the Arsenio Erico and seventh home victory in their previous eight mathces. For the most part Carapeguá had plenty of chances but in the final 17 minutes Nacional wrapped up the victory having bombarded their opponents with crosses.

Javier Gonzalez profited from a cross from the left, brought down by Rodrigo Teixeira and while Carapeguá’s goalkeeper denied him the ball trickled into the path of the 32-year-old who smashed home. Carlos Ruiz Peralta headed in a centre from the right to seal the win.

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Other results: Tacuary 2-1 Sol de América; Cerro de Franco 1-1 Independiente; Luque 2-0 Rubio Ñu

ALL THE GOALS HERE

Clausura 2012: Guaraní vs Olimpia preview

Guaraní vs Olimpia
Dos Bocas
24/11/2012; 19:00 (22:00 GMT)

The oldest rivalry in Paraguayan football takes on added significance this evening with the home team holding just a one-point lead with Libertad, Nacional and even Cerro Porteño waiting in the wings. This will be the 280th clásico añejo with Guaraní winning 88 games, Olimpia victorious in 108 and 83 draws. Interestingly under this referee, Antonio Arias, Olimpia have suffered winning just 2 out of 9 meetings, Guaraní have won twice as many and there were 3 draws.

The guys at UH are always creative with their cartoons! – Photo: D10.com.py

Guarani make just one alteration from the win over Cerro de Franco, Eduardo Filippini has recovered from an injury so replaces Bartomeús, other than that it is the usual 4-4-2 formation. Diego Centurión and Dante López lead the line and their partnership has been so important in their upturn in fortunes providing 8 of their 14 goals in Dos Bocas. Olimpia remain unchanged from the side that drew with Tacuary, like their rivals hoping their strike partnership (Fredy Bareiro and Arnaldo Castorino) continues to deliver.

Guaraní have a great record at home in the Clausura 2012

This is a tough game to call, my leaning is towards Guarani who have a slightly stronger defence and a home record not to be sniffed at (7 wins out of 9). But it is worth noting their two defeats came against Libertad and Nacional so they have struggled against the bigger sides and of course there is the pressure which has definitely got to the players in recent weeks. They were five games without a win until Wednesday and Olimpia will hope to capitalise on those nerves in the early stages of the game.

Prediction: 2-1

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Luís Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Édgar Aranda; Juan Aguilar, Sergio Órteman, Marcelo Palau, Darío Ocampo; Diego Centurión, Dante López

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Salustiano Candia, Julio Cáceres, Enrique Meza; Alejandro Silva, Sebastián Ariosa; Eduardo Aranda, Fabio Caballero, Juan Salgueiro; Fredy Bareiro, Arnaldo Castorino

Best Bet: BTTS is tempting although Olimpia keep a lot of cleansheets so the 0-1 is a possibility, maybe small stake on the home win is a better option

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco preview plus Wednesday’s other games

Once again we look at the headline game on TV as Guaraní try to keep themselves from falling further off the pace against Cerro de Franco who have conceded 9 goals in their previous two outings. We also look at league leaders Nacional’s trip to Villa Elisa to face Sol de América and Olimpia’s home game against Tacuary. Rubio Ñu vs Libertad and Carapeguá vs Luque are also featured.

Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco (TV)
Dos Bocas
21/11/2012; 18.20 (21.20 GMT)

The aborigen are in trouble, they’ve lost the lead and the momentum has now shifted in favour of Nacional. The big problem has been goals, Diego Centurión is on a drought and while Dante López was bailing him out he has been injured for the previous two games and as such Guaraní have failed to score despite creating plenty of chances in the previous 180 minutes. The good news is that partnership will be restored tonight and as such the goals should flow once more.

Dante is back for Guarani – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro de Franco have also been floundering recently albeit in totally contrasting circumstances. After a gruelling 11 months in which they have garnered an impressive 48 points the players understandably feel it is a case of mission complete and are ready for the summer break. Asunción hasn’t been a happy hunting ground either during the Clausura, Cerro de Franco’s two away wins have come in Luque and Carapeguá both cities outside of the capital.

Fortunately for Guarani they aren’t playing a team fighting for something so they should find this game easier than the battle in the Bettegá on Friday night. The key is goals, if they score early on then there should be no problem and they could go on to win comfortably.

Prediction: 2-0

Best Bet: Home win

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Tomas Bartomeus, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo, Fabian Balbuena, Arnaldo Recalde; Oscar Benítez, Reinaldo López, Leonardo Delvalle, Cristian Andersen; Rogerio Leichtweis, Sergio Samudio

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Sol de América vs Nacional
Luis Giagni
21/11/2012; 17.00 (20.00 GMT)

Finally the spotlight is on Nacional, Gustavo Moringio’s team has plugged away for the last five games and harvested fifteen points to lift them up into first place. The goals have been flowing throughout the year, the difference from the Apertura (where they finished fifth) is the defence which has been helped by the protection in midfield offered by Marcos Riveros and the excellent performances of Raúl Piris who brought up his 300th game for the tricolor in the victory against Olimpia.

Teixeira in training, he has been in good form – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Sol, like Cerro de Franco, are kicking their heels already as they wait for their holidays – an excellent Apertura dispelled any relegation doubts and put them in contention for a Copa Sudamericana place. The failure to win more than three games in the Clausura has put them out of the continental race so these last few games are very much a formality. Undoubtedly they will be less motivated than their title-chasing opponents.

Prediction: 0-1

Best Bet: Saw amazing odds on the away win, anything over 1.7 is good value in my opinion

Sol de América XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Robert Bonet, Ricardo Martinez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Arrua; Alfredo Mazacotte, Angel Enciso, Edgar Orzusa, David Mendieta; Esteban Rivas, Diego Vázquez

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Raúl Piris, David Mendoza, Marcos Miers; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Silvio Torales, Marcos Riveros, Marco Melgarejo; Cesar Cáceres Cañete, Rodrigo Teixeira

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Olimpia vs Tacuary (TV)
Para Uno
21/11/2012; 20.20 (23.20 GMT)

After their humiliation in the Arsenio Erico the side return to the comfort of familiar standings and hope to win their fifth consecutive match in the ‘Bosque’. They play a Tacuary team that has finally won two games in a row for the first time in almost a year. Like Olimpia they prefer to be at home, their form on the road in 2012 is horrendous – Pld 20 W 1 D 4 L 15 – hardly inspires confidence ahead of tonight’s match.

Olimpia, even without suspended Richard Ortiz, and Tacuary, even with the topscorer and comeback-kid Nicolas Martínez, should hold true to their respective form in home and away matches.

Prediction: 3-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals better value than home win

Olimpia XI (probable): Martin Silva; Salustiano Candia, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Enrique Meza; Alejandro Silva, Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Paredes, Sebastian Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Gregor Aguayo, Deigo Viera, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Reinaldo Ocampo, Pablo Espinoza, Edward Villalba, Juan Nuñez; Nicolas Martínez, Ramón Cardozo

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Rubio Ñu vs Libertad
La Arboleda
21/11/2012; 16:50 (19:50 GMT)

Owing to the timing of this game the Guma will go top of the league for at least ten minutes if they can win by three goals, they are very much still in the running with the crunch match coming on Sunday against Cerro Porteño. This game should be a formality with Rubio Ñu on an awful run, José Ariel Nuñez back from suspension and Libertad’s historic dominance in this fixture (won the previous nine games).

Prediction: 0-2

Best Bet: Away win

Rubio Ñu XI (probable): Osvaldo Cabral; Arnaldo Rodriguez, Derlis Riveros, Jorge Britez, Nelson Ruiz; Aldo Paniagua, Robert Piris, Roberto Acuña, Diego Chamorro; Alberto Contrera, Lauro Cazal

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Ismael Benegas, Miguel Samudio; William Mendieta, Sebastian Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nestor Camacho; José Ariel Nuñez, Pablo Velázquez

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Carapeguá vs Luque
Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá
21/11/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

Proverbial six-pointer as these two clash in what is a very unpredictable game. The maths states that a Carapeguá win will take them out of the relgation zone at their opponents expense, if Luque were to take all the points then El Potro would be in serious trouble. A draw keeps both of them on the precipice.

Prediction: 1-1

Best Bet: Hard to call this one, probably Under 2.5 goals

Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Celso Gonzalez Fleitas, Marcos Arce, Ruben Maldonado; Raúl Cáceres, Michel Valenzuela, Diosnel Almirón, Rodrigo Soria; Ricardo Ortiz; Imanol Iriberri, David Pereira

Luque XI (probable): Tobias Vargas; Gerzon Chacón, Gonzalo Maulella, Rolando Bogado, Sergio Vergara; Cristian Santacruz, Claudio Vargas, Edgar Robles, Juan Abente, Juan Pablo Raponi; Guido di Vanni

By Ralph Hannah

Week 17 Wrap: Nacional win number five, Cerro Porteño score five as title race hots up

What a difference a  month makes, towards the end of October this blog was extolling the virtues of the ‘black and yellow machine’ as Guaraní came from behind to win (for the second time this season) against Cerro Porteño. That same weekend Nacional lost to Libertad in a game that was seen as important for the Libertad/Olimpia Copa Libertadores race, the Academia losing wasn’t really considered as important.

Five games later and Guaraní have forgotten what it is like to win (or score for that matter with just one goal in 390 minutes of football) while Nacional have come good at the right time, a quintuple of victories including back-to-back wins over their direct rivals Guaraní and on Saturday Olimpia. Gustavo Moringio’s side are now top of the league by two points and the 35-year-old is on course to win a title in his first year of management having previously won four Primera trophies as a player (including the 2009 Clausura and 2011 Aperturas with Nacional).

Nacional fans were few yet vociferous – Photo: D10.com.py

Against Olimpia they were excellent, blowing El Decano away with two goals in a 15 minute spell with the visitor’s unaccustomed to the small confines of the Arsenio Erico stadium and the sparse yet hostile crowd. With just 2 minutes on the clock Cesar Cáceres Cañete netted his 90th goal in domestic football, the veteran with a cute left-foot finish. Marcos Melgarejo headed in a second after another move that had seen Rodrigo Teixeira lift the ball over Martin Silva in the Olimpia goal. Even after Juan Manuel Salgueiro pulled one back, a stunning free kick, the side from Barrio Obrero didn’t get the jitters. Once the away side lost Richard Ortiz to a red card midway through the second half the result wasn’t in doubt, Teixeira and Carlos Ruiz Peralta put gloss on the scoreline with two more goals in a 4-1 rout.

That result came the day after Guaraní had been beaten by a slowly improving Tacuary side led by the very technically-gifted Nicolas Martinez who registered a late goal in the 2-0 win to join Guaraní’s own Diego Centurión at the top of the scoring charts. The away team had dominated possession for long periods of the game but missed the presence of Dante López up front with Carlos Hidalgo unable to unbalance the defence with the intelligent runs we often see the Paraguayan make. Admittedly the first goal was desperately unlucky as  Pablo Espinoza’s shot cannoned off Elvis Marecos to wrong foot Aurrecochea and open the scoring.

Guaraní were defeated by Tacuary – Photo: D10.com.py

Sunday’s solitary game was the battle of the Cerro Porteños as Cerro Porteño played their namesakes in Presidente Franco, the first visit by the azulgrana from Asunción since 1994. A bumper crowd (over 3,000 fans raising gate receipts of 12o miliion guaranies or 25,000 dollars) were treated to five goals as the visitor’s ran riot. Roberto Nanni was excellent once again and scored twice, the first a towering header between two defenders. Jonathan Fabbro provided the cross for that goal and scored one of his own in another magisterial performance. The last goal of the game was from Angel Romero, the 20 year old’s third goal in senior football a vicious shot towards the near post that was too good for Cerro de Franco’s goalkeeper.

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In other results it was a case of fourth time lucky for Libertad who beat Carapeguá 2-1, their first ever win against El Potro in their fourth meeting. Luque gave their home fans a win through Guido di Vanni’s strike as Sol de América wave goodbye to any hopes of a Copa Sudamericana place. Finally two goalkeeping errors from Independiente’s Roque Cardozo were cancelled out by Aldo Vera who grabbed a brace in their 2-2 draw with Rubio Ñu

ALL THE GOALS

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By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Tacuary vs Guaraní preview

Tacuary vs Guaraní
Estadio Roberto Bettega
16/11/2012, 19:00 (22:00 GMT)

A few weeks ago this would have been a nailed-on away win for a rampant Guaraní against a rudderless Tacuary, but tonight’s clash has converted itself into a tricky trip to Tacuary for the visitors. The league leaders have gone four games without a win as Diego Alonso’s men start to feel the pressure as they enter the home straight. On the other hand Tacuary are showing glimpses of a revival led by the talented attacking midfielder Nicolas Martínez who has scored seven goals in the last five games helping his side to two wins and a credible draw against Libertad.

Centurión takes on his old club Tacuary – Photo: D10.com.py

Guaraní are expected to go 4-4-2 with 19-year-old Nildo Viera partnering topscorer Diego Centurión up front and another youngster, 21-year-old Luis de la Cruz earning a starting place on the right hand side. Those three along with the stylish Dario Ocampo present the main goal threats for the away team although it is worth noting that overlapping full backs are also a feature of their play as they try to take advantage of Centurión’s aerial ability.

Zeballos Cue’s Roberto Bettega is the scene for tonight’s game

Tacuary are traditionally a defensive side, this year they have been utterly woeful for long periods but in patches they have shown signs of life including last week’s 4-0 drubbing of Cerro de Franco. The attacking potency of ex-West Ham Utd player Brian Montenegro and the aforementioned Martínez is going to test the Aborigen backline that has kept just one cleansheet in the previous nine games. With relegation almost certain they might throw everything at Guaraní knowing that only a series of wins will save them from the Paraguayan Intermedia. From the probable XI below I’m assuming they line up in a narrow 4-2-2-2 with two holding midfielders and two attacking midfielders who roam in the space.

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gómez, Gregor Aguayo, Diego Viera, Marcos Acostas Rojas; Pablo Espinoza, Juan Nuñez; Reinaldo Ocampo, Nicolas Martínez; Ramón Cardozo, Brian Montenegro

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Nildo Viera, Diego Centurión

Prediction: 1-2

Selected Odds: Tacuary win 4.8, Draw 3.8, Guarani win 1.8; 1-2 scoreline 8.6; Over 2.5 goals 2.04

Best Bet: Although I’ve predicted an away win and over 2.5 goals I wouldn’t call either a tip, Guaraní are stuttering and Tacuary are improving, I think a combination of BTTS and Guarani DNB would be best here