Apertura 2013: General Diaz vs Nacional preview

General Diaz vs Nacional
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
10/06/2013; 16:00 (20:00 BST)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

Nacional can wrap up the Apertura title, their third championship in four years, with a win today against a General Diaz team that was flying high. However, the Aguilas seem to have had their wings clipped as they are currently 12 games without a victory.

Caceres Cañete turns 36 today and is looking for the perfect birthday present – Photo: Club Nacional

Humberto Garcia relies on the normal central midfield pairing of Cristian Sosa and Carlos Segovia and up front will look to the experienced Daniel Ferreira. The team are usually physical and play in a 4-4-2 that can look like a 4-5-1 without the ball, they have profited from set pieces a lot this season.

This week the player’s have spoken about their spiritual unity, shown in the goal celebrations – Photo: Club Nacional Paraguay

Nacional were on the verge of winning the league just over a week ago but slipped up against lowly Luque with pre-title jitters assumedly creeping in. Having said that they should do the job today, Gustavo Moringio’s team have quality and steel especially the spine of Justo Villar in goal (who played on Friday for Paraguay against Chile), captain Raúl Piris who will win his third title with the club and in front of him in midfield Marcos Riveros who will surely want another opportunity abroad having failed to excel in Argentina. The technical quality and flair is provided by playmaker Cesar Caceres Cañete who proves three is the magic number having won titles in 2007 (Sportivo Luqueño), 2010 (Guaraní) and now is set to obtain the “triple crown” on his 36th birthday. Marcos Melgarejo has also been excellent on his return to the club from Libertad and like Raúl Piris will complete a hattrick of titles with the Tricolor assuming they do win today.

Prediction: 1-2

Best Bet: BTTS seems good with General Diaz nearly always managing to find the scoresheet and Nacional with just one cleansheet in their previous 5 games

General Diaz XI (probable): Mario Santilli; Walter Cabrera, Dionisio Mereles, Jorge Cáceres, Diego Vera; Pedro Arce, Cristian Sosa, Carlos Vera Segovia, Roberto Noguera; Alfredo Cano, Daniel Ferreira

Nacional XI (probable): Justo Villar; Ramon Coronel, Raúl Piris, Jose Caceres, David Mendoza; Ricardo Ortiz, Marcos Riveros, Silvio Torales, Marcos Melgarejo; Cesar Caceres Cañete; Julian Benítez

There is a live market of this game available on Betfair

By Ralph Hannah

Apertura 2013 Week 5: Nacional vs Olimpia and Carapeguá vs Libertad preview

A weakened Libertad side travel to Carapeguá in the early kick off which we preview below Saturday’s big match between Nacional and Olimpia.

Nacional vs Olimpia
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
09/03/2013; 19:00 (22:00 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

Gustavo Morinigio’s Nacional are second in the league having won every game but one, a heavy defeat to Cerro de Franco in the east of the country. Today they look to win their third straight game and stretch their ‘no draw’ run to 17 games. Remarkably since the previous meeting between these two in the Arsenio Erico, which Nacional won 4-1, Olimpia have won just two league games from a possible nine. They are on a run of three games without a win having lost to General Díaz before drawing their previous two matches against Rubio Ñu and most recently Deportivo Lara.

Melgarejo has got the winner in the past two games for Nacional – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

The Academia are without Marcos Riveros which is a notable absentee in midfield, up front Ramón Cardozo is still looking for his first competitive goal for the club. Marcos Melgarejo is an excellent player and has proved his class by scoring the winner in the previous two games, both of which ended 1-0 as Moringio tries to impart some of his defensive wisdom onto the squad.

Fredy Bareiro is Olimpia’s form man – Photo: D10.com.py

Ever Almeida must be a bit concerned, three games without a win and four without a cleansheet prove that his team isn’t quite as settled as he had first hoped. Interestingly he continues with Jorge Báez at right-wingback despite the youngster’s defensive frailties, something that Melgarejo will try and expose at every opportunity. The form man has been Fredy Bareiro who can’t stop scoring, the former Libertad and Cerro man has four in four and scored two ‘golazos’ against Lara. In defence Herminio Miranda can’t play against his parent club so Julio Manzur will take his place in the back three.

Prediction: 2-1

Best Bet: BTTS with Nacional missing holding midfielder Riveros and Olimpia starting with Báez at wingback

Nacional XI (possible): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Raúl Piris, Leandro Cáceres, David Mendoza; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Silvio Torales, Hugo Cabrera, Marcos Melgarejo; Ramón Cardozo, Julian Benítez

Olimpia XI (possible): Martin Silva; Salustiano Candia, Julio Manzur, Enrique Meza; Jorge Báez, Eduardo Aranda , Richard Ortiz, Sebastián Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Fredy Bareiro, Juan Carlos Ferreyra

There is a live market of this game available on Betfair

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Non-Televised game…

Carapeguá vs Libertad
Estadio Municipal, Carapeguá
09/03/2013; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

Three draws in a row for Carapeguá who know that the wonderful start by General Díaz means the newly-promoted side are no longer a likely relegation contender thus plunging them deeper into the mire. They face a Libertad side also concerned with their points total, they can’t become so enthralled with the chase for continental glory that they forget their ‘bread and butter’. Having said that the Copa Libertadores schedule is unforgiving, they leave for Lima at dawn tomorrow so most of the first team have been given a rest.

With that in mind I’m plumping for a Carapeguá win, they also won this fixture last year and so history is on their side.

Prediction: 2-1

Carapeguá XI (probable): Gustavo Arévalos; Raúl Cáceres, Rubén Maldonado, Robert Aldama, Cristian Martinez; Pedro Chavez, Jorge Britez, Michel Romero, Diego Godoy; David Pereira, Arnulfo Colmán

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Gustavo Gómez, Ismael Benegas, Gustavo Mencia; Nelson Romero, Osmar Molinas, Sebastián Eguren, Néstor Camacho; Rodolfo Gamarra; Mauro Guevgeozián

For other football previews check CaStRoF’s betting tips

By Ralph Hannah

Apertura 2013 Week 1: Sol vs Cerro, Guaraní vs Libertad preview

And so we begin! Sol de América vs Cerro Porteño in Luque kicks off the Apertura 2013 named  ”Don Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb” in honour of Olimpia’s ex-President, the most successful club president in Paraguayan football. We also have a spicy encounter between Guarani and Libertad to round off Saturday with Nacional and Carapeguá sandwiched between the two televised matches.

Sol de América vs Cerro Porteño
Feliciano Cáceres, Luque
09/02/2013; 18:40 (21:40 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

A neutral venue for this game with Sol’s Luis Giagni stadium deemed to small to host the raucous travelling support. It is a stern opening day test for Ricardo Dabrowski’s men who have prepared well with a tour of northern Argentina including two friendlies against Newell’s Old Boys in Rosario. Cerro Porteño’s most recent friendly against Libertad ended in farce when the light’s went out and the game was suspended last weekend, before that they were in Uruguay where they won a friendly tournament.

Cerro’s new signing Paul Ambrosi

Nacional have been sharing the goals r0und well recently, six different scorers in their previous five games, and while Rodrigo Teixeira is the striker leading the line they have goals all over the pitch with midfielders Marcos Melgarejo and Carlos Ruiz Peralta finding the net recently while Javier Gonzalez popped up with a crucial goal to break down Carapeguá in the last game, his first since September.

Historically Sol have done well in recent meetings, losing just one in five and winning the previous two games, so they will go into this match with plenty of confidence. The strongest area of the pitch for the danzarin is midfield with Sergio Escalante, Edgar Orzusa and David Mendieta all providing plenty of creativity.

Cerro Porteño are without Jonathan Fabbro who complained of a niggly injury following a stellar second-half showing against El Salvador in midweek. There will be a debut for Paul Ambrosi, the Ecuadorean veteran will play as left wing back in a 3-4-3 formation. Another starter worth noting is Ocsar Romero one half of the talented ‘Romero Twins’ who could really make an impact this season in the league while major names are rested for the Libertadores.

Prediction: 1-2

Best Bet: Although I’ve backed the away win it isn’t the best option with Fabbro out and Sol’s good record in these games, safer bet is Over 2.5 goals

Sol de América XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Bruno Valdez, Ricardo Martinez, Adalberto Giori, Diego Arruá; Sergio Escalante, Marcos Duré, Edgar Orzusa, David Mendieta, Alfredo Mazacotte; Diego Vázquez

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Gonzalo Viera, Victor H. Mareco, Luis Cardozo; Carlos Bonet, Julio Dos Santos, Fidencio Oviedo, Paul Ambrosi; Oscar Romero, Santiago Salcedo, Roberto Nanni

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Guaraní vs Libertad
Dos Bocas
09/02/2013; 20:50 (23:50 GMT)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

The evening’s entertainment finishes with what is usually a cracking game between Guarani and Libertad, the latter of course were champions in the Clausura 2012 and are my favourites to win this year’s competition. They have strengthened an already mean defence with the signing of Pedro Benítez from Cerro Porteño and in midfield there is also a return for the experienced Pablo Guiñazú.

Guaraní squad for this year – Photo: ClubGuarani.com

Guaraní also welcome a returning hero, the Brazilian striker Rodrigo Teixeira is back following his stint at Nacional while crucially they have held onto key players from last year such as Diego Centurión, Marcelo Palau and Sergio Orteman. They will be desperate to take advantage of the fact that Libertad, Cerro and Olimpia have the Copa Libertadores to distract them while the aurinegro can concentrate fully on the league.

It isn’t an easy game to call, Libertad have won on their last four visits so if I had to pick a winner it would be them although I could see this being a draw. It is going to be great to see the two ‘pelados’ Orteman and Guiñazú clash in central midfield today. Expect a great atmosphere.

Prediction: 1-2

Best Bet: BTTS could be safer than trying to pick a winner in this one.

Guarani XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Tomás Bartomeus, Julio Cesar Caceres, Luis Cabral, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Marcelo Palau, Sergio Orteman, Jorge Mendoza; Diego Centurion, Rodrigo Teixeira

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Jorge Moreira, Ismael Benegas, Pedro Benítez, Miguel Samudio; Nelson Romero, Sergio Aquino, Pablo Guiñazú, Wili Mendieta; José Ariel Nuñez, Pablo Velázquez

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Non-televised game…

Nacional vs Carapeguá
Defensores del Chaco
09/02/2013; 19:00 (22:00 GMT)
Prediction 2-1

Carapeguá could be exciting this year with Celso Ayala bringing in plenty of players but I think Nacional will be too good for them especially with the signing of Ramon Cardozo who looked very motivated in pre-season. It wouldn’t surprise me if his goal is the difference today.

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Nacional vs Cerro Porteño preview

Nacional vs Cerro Porteño
Estadio Arsenio Erico
09/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

The Barrio Obrero derby will be staged at the compact Arsenio Erico with Nacional keen to keep up their excellent home record, eight wins from their previous nine. In general they have been in formidable shape winning seven of the last eight games to keep up with Libertad a the top of the table. Today only a win will do for Gustavo Moringío’s side, the manager was on the pitch in the corresponding fixture in the 2011 Clausura and scored an equaliser that day.

Nacional hope to rise to the top at the Arsenio Erico – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Nacional line up in their usual 4-4-1-1 with Cáceres Cañete just behind the big Brazilian Teixeira – in defence the key player has been Raúl Piris this season and he will look to win everything in the air, also goalkeeper Ignacio Don has played to his very high standards with Nacional’s defensive record improving greatly in the Clausura. Their biggest opponent going into this match is themselves, they can’t let the pressure get to them and must keep cool heads in the afternoon sunshine in Barrio Obrero today.

Cerro Porteño continue with a mixed team as they look to blood a few youngsters, such as 20-year-old Oscar Romero who scored in the previous game against Luque. Alexis Gonzalez and Iván Torres are also expected to play with Fidencio Oviedo and Jonathan Fabbro taking a rest. The azulgrana are on a three-game winless run with the side demotivated once the chance of more silverware was out of the equation.

Prediction: 2-1

Best Bet: Usually regardless of what side Cerro Porteño put out they score so Both Teams To Score might be better than the home win

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Leonardo Cáceres, Raúl Piris, Marcos Miers; Derlis Orué, Marcos Riveros, Silvio Torales, Marcos Melgarejo; César Cáceres Cañete; Rodrigo Teixeira.

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Roberto Fernández; Gonzalo Viera, Mariano Uglessich, Luis Cardozo; Carlos Bonet, Julio Dos Santos, Alexis González, Iván Torres, Walter López; Santiago Salcedo, Óscar Romero

Clausura 2012: Rubio Ñu vs Nacional and Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Luqueño preview

The football fixtures for Saturday in the Paraguay Clausura involve two teams with nothing to play for and two teams with everything at stake at either ends of the table. Nacional travel to Rubio Ñu hoping to emulate Libertad (who won 5-0 last night away to Independiente) and go joint top of the table while Luque are hoping to take something from their game against bitter rivals Cerro Porteño in La Olla to all but guarantee safety.

Rubio Ñu vs Nacional
La Arboleda
01/12/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

The tranquil area around La Arboleda will be all noise and colour on Saturday afternoon as Nacional fans descend from the South of the city to cheer on Gustavo Morinigio’s side. The 35-year-0ld has moulded a fine side that used their excellent home form to keep them in the chase and have risen to the challenge in the second half of the season with seven wins from their previous eight. They face Chiqui Arce’s Rubio Ñu side that has been a shadow of their former selves, greatly feeling the loss of players such as Derlis Gonzalez, Eric Ramos and Neri Cardozo who went to Europe with just the latter returning but seriously injured.

Nacional beat Carapeguá in their last game and are on a great run – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Nacional have been sharing the goals r0und well recently, six different scorers in their previous five games, and while Rodrigo Teixeira is the striker leading the line they have goals all over the pitch with midfielders Marcos Melgarejo and Carlos Ruiz Peralta finding the net recently while Javier Gonzalez popped up with a crucial goal to break down Carapeguá in the last game, his first since September.

Rubio Ñu have struggled so much in the offensive department, their average of 0.951 goals per game during 2012 is the lowest in the country (Tacuary have edged up to 0.952) and it is a direct result of losing Derlis Gonzalez and Carlos Correa to Benfica while the excellent Neri Cardozo suffered a serious injury while on-loan to Viking in Norway and has been recovering for most of the Clausura. One positive is the return of young goalkeeper Jorge Chena from a cruciate knee ligament injury, I was there in February when he suffered the injury just a routine goal kick and very happy to see him back in the albiverde side.

Nacional slipped up against Sol in their previous away game but they’ve always been strong playing ‘catch-up’ and knowing they need a win to stay in touch with Libertad should spur them on to yet another win.

Prediction: 0-2

Best Bet: Away win

Rubio Ñu XI (probable): Jorge Chena; Arnaldo Rodriguez, Oscar Velazquez, Oscar Ayala, Nelson Ruiz; Angel Lucena, Roberto Piris, Jorge Britez, Diego Chamorro; Lauro Cazal, Juan Maldonado

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramon Coronel, Raul Piris, Leonardo Caceres, Marcos Miers; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Marcos Riveros, Silvio Torales, Marcos Melagerjo; Javier Gonzalez, Rodrigo Teixeira

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Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo Luqueño
La Olla
01/12/2012; 19:15 (22:15 GMT)

Cerro Porteño have lost the previous two  gamesas they are left with nothing to play for in their centenary year, already qualified for the Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana and without a chance of winning the league they are just going through the motions. The most significant decision will be after the final whistle when Jorge Fossati confirms if he is to extend his contract or not. For Luque this  a bonus opportunity to grab the precious points they need to confirm survival. Thanks to Independiente’s defeat they can’t fall into the relgation zone this weekend anyway and that might just take the pressure off an allow them to play even more freely against their old rival.

Hard game to call, Cerro are the better side, they are strong at home but as we saw against Sol de América when there is nothing to play for they can quite easily take their foot off the pedal and get beaten.

Prediction: 1-2

Best Bet: BTTS

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Diego Viera, Pedro Benítez, Luis Cardozo; Carlos Bonet, Alexis Gonzalez, Julio Dos Santos, José Domingo Salcedo; Jonathan Fabbro; Roberto Nanni, Santiago Salcedo

Luque XI (probable): Tobías Vargas; Luciano Vera, Gonzalo Mauluella, Sergio Vergara, Claudio Vargas; Juan Pablo Raponi, William Schuster, Edgar Robles, Juan Abente; José Burgos, Guido di Vanni

By Ralph Hannah

Week 19 Wrap: Cerro and Olimpia fall off the pace with defeats to Libertad and Guarani

With three games to go it is a three-horse race for the championship as Guaraní lead Libertad and Nacional by one point. The former two have fairly easy run ins having seen off Olimpia and Cerro Porteño respectively this weekend, Nacional await Cerro in the penultimate week.

Guaraní vs Olimpia
Defensores del Chaco
(1-1) 2-1 – Diego Centurión, Dante López; Fredy Bareiro

Guarani showed their fortitude to come back from a goal down and win, the sixth time they’ve done so in 2012 (only Libertad have a better record, winning 7). While Olimpia’s goal was fortunate, Pablo Aurrecochea fumbling the ball to allow Fredy Bareiro to head in, they will feel aggreived at not being awarded a penalty for a clear foul.

Guaraní for their part relied on the dynamic duo of Diego and Dante, Centurión scoring the first goal after a corner was brought down well by López who found his strike partner in the six yard box. It was Dante López who scored the winner, good work by Dario Ocampo who beat his man and although he went for the one-two, López decided to shoot from distance and it took a slight deflection of his teammate who had continued his run to beat Martin Silva.

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Libertad vs Cerro Porteño
Defensores del Chaco
(1-0) 1-0 – Pablo Velázquez

Unlike Saturday’s match the other big game in Sajonia was won by the team in black and white, Libertad with a solid defensive display to shut out their freescoring rivals in blue and red. Pablo Velázquez got the only goal of the game anticipating Nelson Romero’s cross from the right to get in front of Cerro’s dithering defenders and poke the ball past Barreto.

Velazquez celebrates his winning strike – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

The encounter had plenty of controversy – Jorge Rojas was convinced he was fouled in the area but Cerro Porteño weren’t given a penalty, later on Fidencio Oviedo saw red for what replays indicate was a forearm smash to the back of his rival’s head. In stoppage time Carlos Amarilla and his assistant combined to produce a veritable howler that could cost Libertad dear. Pablo Velázquez was onside as he took one touch to control a through ball before scoring – the linesman flagged him offside and then the icing on the cake he was shown a second yellow by Amarilla for ‘kicking the ball away’ (i.e. scoring). Reminiscent of the crazy decision that went against Arsenal and Robin Van Persie against Barcelona.

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Nacional vs Carapeguá
Arsenio Erico
(0-0) 2-0 – Javier Gonzalez, Carlos Ruiz Peralta

The other title challengers had won earlier in the day by notching up their fourth consecutive win at the Arsenio Erico and seventh home victory in their previous eight mathces. For the most part Carapeguá had plenty of chances but in the final 17 minutes Nacional wrapped up the victory having bombarded their opponents with crosses.

Javier Gonzalez profited from a cross from the left, brought down by Rodrigo Teixeira and while Carapeguá’s goalkeeper denied him the ball trickled into the path of the 32-year-old who smashed home. Carlos Ruiz Peralta headed in a centre from the right to seal the win.

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Other results: Tacuary 2-1 Sol de América; Cerro de Franco 1-1 Independiente; Luque 2-0 Rubio Ñu

ALL THE GOALS HERE

Week 18 Wrap: Guaraní return to summit while Libertad and Cerro keep up chase

Quick round-up today as Week 18 is quickly followed by Week 19 on Saturday with the huge clash between Olimpia and Guarani followed by Cerro Porteño vs Libertad on Sunday – look out for those previews on the mornings of the games.

Below you can see all 24(!) goals in a round where three sides were top at one point (Nacional – Libertad – Guaraní).

Cerro Porteño 2-0 Independiente

Fabbro and Nanni with the goals as the team gave Fossati something to celebrate on his 60th birthday!

Olimpia 2-2 Tacuary

A last gasp equaliser for Tacuary effectively ended Olimpia’s title hopes, Fredy Bareiro’s goal was a great strike

Other results

Rubio Ñu 2-7 Libertad – a monster win for Israel’s team as they stay just one point behind Guaraní

Sol de América 2-0 Nacional – The Academia were the latest side to feel the pressure of first place, a limp performance in Villa Elisa

Guaraní 1-0 Cerro de Franco – Finally Diego Centurión ended his drought which conicided with an end to the aborigen’s winless run, they are top of the league once more

Carapeguá 5-1 Luque – speechless…

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco preview plus Wednesday’s other games

Once again we look at the headline game on TV as Guaraní try to keep themselves from falling further off the pace against Cerro de Franco who have conceded 9 goals in their previous two outings. We also look at league leaders Nacional’s trip to Villa Elisa to face Sol de América and Olimpia’s home game against Tacuary. Rubio Ñu vs Libertad and Carapeguá vs Luque are also featured.

Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco (TV)
Dos Bocas
21/11/2012; 18.20 (21.20 GMT)

The aborigen are in trouble, they’ve lost the lead and the momentum has now shifted in favour of Nacional. The big problem has been goals, Diego Centurión is on a drought and while Dante López was bailing him out he has been injured for the previous two games and as such Guaraní have failed to score despite creating plenty of chances in the previous 180 minutes. The good news is that partnership will be restored tonight and as such the goals should flow once more.

Dante is back for Guarani – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro de Franco have also been floundering recently albeit in totally contrasting circumstances. After a gruelling 11 months in which they have garnered an impressive 48 points the players understandably feel it is a case of mission complete and are ready for the summer break. Asunción hasn’t been a happy hunting ground either during the Clausura, Cerro de Franco’s two away wins have come in Luque and Carapeguá both cities outside of the capital.

Fortunately for Guarani they aren’t playing a team fighting for something so they should find this game easier than the battle in the Bettegá on Friday night. The key is goals, if they score early on then there should be no problem and they could go on to win comfortably.

Prediction: 2-0

Best Bet: Home win

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Tomas Bartomeus, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo, Fabian Balbuena, Arnaldo Recalde; Oscar Benítez, Reinaldo López, Leonardo Delvalle, Cristian Andersen; Rogerio Leichtweis, Sergio Samudio

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Sol de América vs Nacional
Luis Giagni
21/11/2012; 17.00 (20.00 GMT)

Finally the spotlight is on Nacional, Gustavo Moringio’s team has plugged away for the last five games and harvested fifteen points to lift them up into first place. The goals have been flowing throughout the year, the difference from the Apertura (where they finished fifth) is the defence which has been helped by the protection in midfield offered by Marcos Riveros and the excellent performances of Raúl Piris who brought up his 300th game for the tricolor in the victory against Olimpia.

Teixeira in training, he has been in good form – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Sol, like Cerro de Franco, are kicking their heels already as they wait for their holidays – an excellent Apertura dispelled any relegation doubts and put them in contention for a Copa Sudamericana place. The failure to win more than three games in the Clausura has put them out of the continental race so these last few games are very much a formality. Undoubtedly they will be less motivated than their title-chasing opponents.

Prediction: 0-1

Best Bet: Saw amazing odds on the away win, anything over 1.7 is good value in my opinion

Sol de América XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Robert Bonet, Ricardo Martinez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Arrua; Alfredo Mazacotte, Angel Enciso, Edgar Orzusa, David Mendieta; Esteban Rivas, Diego Vázquez

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Raúl Piris, David Mendoza, Marcos Miers; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Silvio Torales, Marcos Riveros, Marco Melgarejo; Cesar Cáceres Cañete, Rodrigo Teixeira

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Olimpia vs Tacuary (TV)
Para Uno
21/11/2012; 20.20 (23.20 GMT)

After their humiliation in the Arsenio Erico the side return to the comfort of familiar standings and hope to win their fifth consecutive match in the ‘Bosque’. They play a Tacuary team that has finally won two games in a row for the first time in almost a year. Like Olimpia they prefer to be at home, their form on the road in 2012 is horrendous – Pld 20 W 1 D 4 L 15 – hardly inspires confidence ahead of tonight’s match.

Olimpia, even without suspended Richard Ortiz, and Tacuary, even with the topscorer and comeback-kid Nicolas Martínez, should hold true to their respective form in home and away matches.

Prediction: 3-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals better value than home win

Olimpia XI (probable): Martin Silva; Salustiano Candia, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Enrique Meza; Alejandro Silva, Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Paredes, Sebastian Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Gregor Aguayo, Deigo Viera, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Reinaldo Ocampo, Pablo Espinoza, Edward Villalba, Juan Nuñez; Nicolas Martínez, Ramón Cardozo

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Rubio Ñu vs Libertad
La Arboleda
21/11/2012; 16:50 (19:50 GMT)

Owing to the timing of this game the Guma will go top of the league for at least ten minutes if they can win by three goals, they are very much still in the running with the crunch match coming on Sunday against Cerro Porteño. This game should be a formality with Rubio Ñu on an awful run, José Ariel Nuñez back from suspension and Libertad’s historic dominance in this fixture (won the previous nine games).

Prediction: 0-2

Best Bet: Away win

Rubio Ñu XI (probable): Osvaldo Cabral; Arnaldo Rodriguez, Derlis Riveros, Jorge Britez, Nelson Ruiz; Aldo Paniagua, Robert Piris, Roberto Acuña, Diego Chamorro; Alberto Contrera, Lauro Cazal

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Ismael Benegas, Miguel Samudio; William Mendieta, Sebastian Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nestor Camacho; José Ariel Nuñez, Pablo Velázquez

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Carapeguá vs Luque
Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá
21/11/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

Proverbial six-pointer as these two clash in what is a very unpredictable game. The maths states that a Carapeguá win will take them out of the relgation zone at their opponents expense, if Luque were to take all the points then El Potro would be in serious trouble. A draw keeps both of them on the precipice.

Prediction: 1-1

Best Bet: Hard to call this one, probably Under 2.5 goals

Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Celso Gonzalez Fleitas, Marcos Arce, Ruben Maldonado; Raúl Cáceres, Michel Valenzuela, Diosnel Almirón, Rodrigo Soria; Ricardo Ortiz; Imanol Iriberri, David Pereira

Luque XI (probable): Tobias Vargas; Gerzon Chacón, Gonzalo Maulella, Rolando Bogado, Sergio Vergara; Cristian Santacruz, Claudio Vargas, Edgar Robles, Juan Abente, Juan Pablo Raponi; Guido di Vanni

By Ralph Hannah

Week 17 Wrap: Nacional win number five, Cerro Porteño score five as title race hots up

What a difference a  month makes, towards the end of October this blog was extolling the virtues of the ‘black and yellow machine’ as Guaraní came from behind to win (for the second time this season) against Cerro Porteño. That same weekend Nacional lost to Libertad in a game that was seen as important for the Libertad/Olimpia Copa Libertadores race, the Academia losing wasn’t really considered as important.

Five games later and Guaraní have forgotten what it is like to win (or score for that matter with just one goal in 390 minutes of football) while Nacional have come good at the right time, a quintuple of victories including back-to-back wins over their direct rivals Guaraní and on Saturday Olimpia. Gustavo Moringio’s side are now top of the league by two points and the 35-year-old is on course to win a title in his first year of management having previously won four Primera trophies as a player (including the 2009 Clausura and 2011 Aperturas with Nacional).

Nacional fans were few yet vociferous – Photo: D10.com.py

Against Olimpia they were excellent, blowing El Decano away with two goals in a 15 minute spell with the visitor’s unaccustomed to the small confines of the Arsenio Erico stadium and the sparse yet hostile crowd. With just 2 minutes on the clock Cesar Cáceres Cañete netted his 90th goal in domestic football, the veteran with a cute left-foot finish. Marcos Melgarejo headed in a second after another move that had seen Rodrigo Teixeira lift the ball over Martin Silva in the Olimpia goal. Even after Juan Manuel Salgueiro pulled one back, a stunning free kick, the side from Barrio Obrero didn’t get the jitters. Once the away side lost Richard Ortiz to a red card midway through the second half the result wasn’t in doubt, Teixeira and Carlos Ruiz Peralta put gloss on the scoreline with two more goals in a 4-1 rout.

That result came the day after Guaraní had been beaten by a slowly improving Tacuary side led by the very technically-gifted Nicolas Martinez who registered a late goal in the 2-0 win to join Guaraní’s own Diego Centurión at the top of the scoring charts. The away team had dominated possession for long periods of the game but missed the presence of Dante López up front with Carlos Hidalgo unable to unbalance the defence with the intelligent runs we often see the Paraguayan make. Admittedly the first goal was desperately unlucky as  Pablo Espinoza’s shot cannoned off Elvis Marecos to wrong foot Aurrecochea and open the scoring.

Guaraní were defeated by Tacuary – Photo: D10.com.py

Sunday’s solitary game was the battle of the Cerro Porteños as Cerro Porteño played their namesakes in Presidente Franco, the first visit by the azulgrana from Asunción since 1994. A bumper crowd (over 3,000 fans raising gate receipts of 12o miliion guaranies or 25,000 dollars) were treated to five goals as the visitor’s ran riot. Roberto Nanni was excellent once again and scored twice, the first a towering header between two defenders. Jonathan Fabbro provided the cross for that goal and scored one of his own in another magisterial performance. The last goal of the game was from Angel Romero, the 20 year old’s third goal in senior football a vicious shot towards the near post that was too good for Cerro de Franco’s goalkeeper.

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In other results it was a case of fourth time lucky for Libertad who beat Carapeguá 2-1, their first ever win against El Potro in their fourth meeting. Luque gave their home fans a win through Guido di Vanni’s strike as Sol de América wave goodbye to any hopes of a Copa Sudamericana place. Finally two goalkeeping errors from Independiente’s Roque Cardozo were cancelled out by Aldo Vera who grabbed a brace in their 2-2 draw with Rubio Ñu

ALL THE GOALS

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By Ralph Hannah

Paraguay Clausura 2012: Title race fixtures

Just 6 games to go and the title race is wide open following Guaraní’s home defeat to Nacional on Sunday, although Cerro and Olimpia aren’t included in this post it is worth bearing in mind they are only two points further back from 3rd-placed Libertad so still have a faint glimmer of hope. Here is the run-in for the top three and a few thoughts on how it will go and who will lift the hotly-contested Clausura title. Appreciate comments below as to your thoughts on the 2012 Clausura winner!

The top 3 with six games to play

The kick off times/dates are never confirmed until a week before so for now these are just a simple home or away, (n) stands for neutral with some games likely to be played at the Defensores del Chaco.

GUARANI

vs Tacuary (A)

vs Cerro de Franco (H)

vs Olimpia (H)

Guaraní are top of the pile for now – Photo: Prensa Club Guaraní

vs Sol de América (A)

vs Carapeguá (H)

vs Rubio Ñu (A or N)

The Olimpia game stands out as the most difficult, instead of playing at the Defensores to maximise profits they will keep the game in Dos Bocas to have the sporting advantage. The other five games are all winnable – the final day of the season against Rubio Ñu could be interesting, last season they played at La Arboleda and Rubio Ñu blew them away within 30 minutes. Again the game might be played at a neutral venue if the albiverde decide to sell the rights to the game to somebody in Ciudad del Este or play at the Defensores. Overall I think Guaraní will take at least 12 points from these six games.

NACIONAL

vs Olimpia (H)

vs Sol de América (A)

vs Carapeguá (H)

Will Nacional’s fans celebrate a title win? – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

vs Rubio Ñu (A)

vs Cerro Porteño (N)

vs Independiente (A)

A slightly tougher run-in considering they play Olimpia and Cerro Porteño, although the Academia have a great record against their Barrio Obrero neighbours so they could well nick a win especially if Cerro are out of the title race by then. The key game is really this weekend with Olimpia, if they lose that then even 15 points from the final five games might not be enough to catch Guaraní. Like their rivals they’ve decided to turn down the big money on offer by not selling tickets to Olimpia fans and hosting the game at the Arsenio Erico rather than go across Colón to Defensores del Chaco – Nacional mean business.  I think they can take around 13 points.

LIBERTAD

vs Carapeguá (H)

vs Rubio Ñu (A)

Another epic victory over Cerro will be needed – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

vs Cerro Porteño (N)

vs Independiente (A)

vs Cerro de Franco (A)

vs Luque (H)

The Libertad vs Cerro Porteño game will be an almighty clash, it always is, and the trip to Cerro de Franco could be key with Libertad usually travelling well. They have never played particularly well against Carapeguá and will be missing Nuñez for this game but assuming they have enough firepower in this weekend’s match they could well take 18 points, they have the quality.

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CONCLUSION

So Libertad for the title? It isn’t as outlandish as you would think, even though they sit four points behind right now. My gut tells me Guaraní will be able to hold out, but come the last day of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if these three teams are all in with a shout as Guaraní sit on 45 points, Nacional and Libertad on 44 points.

What are your thoughts?

By Ralph Hannah