Clausura 2012: Cerro Porteño vs Independiente

Cerro Porteño vs Independiente (TV)
La Olla
22/12/2012; 19:00 (22:00)

Cerro Porteño find themselves very much in the title race thanks to their Barrio Obrero neighbours defeat yesterday, Nacional lost 2-0 to Sol meaning Guaraní have re-taken top spot. A win tonight would put Cerro six points behind with a game in hand and with Guaraní still to play Olimpia on Saturday there is still hope for the azulgrana that they achieve the ‘double’ in their Centenary year.

Nanni is the topscorer for Cerro this season – Photo: D10.com.py

With Cerro Porteño publicly stating they are in debt and in need of selling before they can bring any new players in, it might be Fossati’s last few weeks at the club (he doesn’t come cheap). The big Uruguayan would love to wrap up his second title of the year and is very motivated as are his team to take maximum points from the final six games knowing that both Nacional and Guaraní are suffering from the jitters. Diego Barreto, Mariano Uglessich, Jorge Rojas and Ale Da Silva are set to replace Roberto Fernandez, Pedro Benítez, Carlos Bonet and Santiago Salcedo respectively. The rotation is because Cerro have a busy schedule including Libertad on Sunday and Sol de América next Thursday.

Despite those changes there should be no problem for the home side this evening, the midfield trio of Fidencio Oviedo (who according to one local journalist is of interest to Parma), Julio Dos Santos and Jonathan Fabbro remains intact and they will provide the bullets to ‘El Pistolero’ Roberto Nanni.

As for Independiente they keep chopping and changing in search of that elusive second win of the campaign. One change of note is Roque Cardozo who had a torrid time in goal against Rubio Ñu, two mistakes leading to the opponent’s two goals. Attacking right back Víctor Dávalos is replaced by the more orthodox Rody Martinez and there are two further changes expected with Felipe Gimenez and Gabriel Vieira coming into the side.

Prediction: 3-0

Best Bet: If home win doesn’t offer good odds then Over 2.5 goals is a very real possibility given Cerro’s attacking prowess

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Gonzalo Viera, Mariano Uglessich, Luis Cardozo; Jorge Rojas, Fidencio Oviedo, Julio Dos Santos, Mathias Corujo; Jonathan Fabbro; Alejandro da Silva, Roberto Nanni

Independiente XI (probable): Blas Hermosilla; Rody Martínez, José Báez, Michel Godoy, Mario Cáceres; Aldo Vera, Luis Miño, Michel Romero, Felipe Gimenez, Gabriel Vieiral; Luciano Ursino

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco preview plus Wednesday’s other games

Once again we look at the headline game on TV as Guaraní try to keep themselves from falling further off the pace against Cerro de Franco who have conceded 9 goals in their previous two outings. We also look at league leaders Nacional’s trip to Villa Elisa to face Sol de América and Olimpia’s home game against Tacuary. Rubio Ñu vs Libertad and Carapeguá vs Luque are also featured.

Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco (TV)
Dos Bocas
21/11/2012; 18.20 (21.20 GMT)

The aborigen are in trouble, they’ve lost the lead and the momentum has now shifted in favour of Nacional. The big problem has been goals, Diego Centurión is on a drought and while Dante López was bailing him out he has been injured for the previous two games and as such Guaraní have failed to score despite creating plenty of chances in the previous 180 minutes. The good news is that partnership will be restored tonight and as such the goals should flow once more.

Dante is back for Guarani – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro de Franco have also been floundering recently albeit in totally contrasting circumstances. After a gruelling 11 months in which they have garnered an impressive 48 points the players understandably feel it is a case of mission complete and are ready for the summer break. Asunción hasn’t been a happy hunting ground either during the Clausura, Cerro de Franco’s two away wins have come in Luque and Carapeguá both cities outside of the capital.

Fortunately for Guarani they aren’t playing a team fighting for something so they should find this game easier than the battle in the Bettegá on Friday night. The key is goals, if they score early on then there should be no problem and they could go on to win comfortably.

Prediction: 2-0

Best Bet: Home win

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Tomas Bartomeus, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo, Fabian Balbuena, Arnaldo Recalde; Oscar Benítez, Reinaldo López, Leonardo Delvalle, Cristian Andersen; Rogerio Leichtweis, Sergio Samudio

================================

Sol de América vs Nacional
Luis Giagni
21/11/2012; 17.00 (20.00 GMT)

Finally the spotlight is on Nacional, Gustavo Moringio’s team has plugged away for the last five games and harvested fifteen points to lift them up into first place. The goals have been flowing throughout the year, the difference from the Apertura (where they finished fifth) is the defence which has been helped by the protection in midfield offered by Marcos Riveros and the excellent performances of Raúl Piris who brought up his 300th game for the tricolor in the victory against Olimpia.

Teixeira in training, he has been in good form – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Sol, like Cerro de Franco, are kicking their heels already as they wait for their holidays – an excellent Apertura dispelled any relegation doubts and put them in contention for a Copa Sudamericana place. The failure to win more than three games in the Clausura has put them out of the continental race so these last few games are very much a formality. Undoubtedly they will be less motivated than their title-chasing opponents.

Prediction: 0-1

Best Bet: Saw amazing odds on the away win, anything over 1.7 is good value in my opinion

Sol de América XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Robert Bonet, Ricardo Martinez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Arrua; Alfredo Mazacotte, Angel Enciso, Edgar Orzusa, David Mendieta; Esteban Rivas, Diego Vázquez

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Raúl Piris, David Mendoza, Marcos Miers; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Silvio Torales, Marcos Riveros, Marco Melgarejo; Cesar Cáceres Cañete, Rodrigo Teixeira

================================

Olimpia vs Tacuary (TV)
Para Uno
21/11/2012; 20.20 (23.20 GMT)

After their humiliation in the Arsenio Erico the side return to the comfort of familiar standings and hope to win their fifth consecutive match in the ‘Bosque’. They play a Tacuary team that has finally won two games in a row for the first time in almost a year. Like Olimpia they prefer to be at home, their form on the road in 2012 is horrendous – Pld 20 W 1 D 4 L 15 – hardly inspires confidence ahead of tonight’s match.

Olimpia, even without suspended Richard Ortiz, and Tacuary, even with the topscorer and comeback-kid Nicolas Martínez, should hold true to their respective form in home and away matches.

Prediction: 3-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals better value than home win

Olimpia XI (probable): Martin Silva; Salustiano Candia, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Enrique Meza; Alejandro Silva, Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Paredes, Sebastian Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Gregor Aguayo, Deigo Viera, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Reinaldo Ocampo, Pablo Espinoza, Edward Villalba, Juan Nuñez; Nicolas Martínez, Ramón Cardozo

================================

Rubio Ñu vs Libertad
La Arboleda
21/11/2012; 16:50 (19:50 GMT)

Owing to the timing of this game the Guma will go top of the league for at least ten minutes if they can win by three goals, they are very much still in the running with the crunch match coming on Sunday against Cerro Porteño. This game should be a formality with Rubio Ñu on an awful run, José Ariel Nuñez back from suspension and Libertad’s historic dominance in this fixture (won the previous nine games).

Prediction: 0-2

Best Bet: Away win

Rubio Ñu XI (probable): Osvaldo Cabral; Arnaldo Rodriguez, Derlis Riveros, Jorge Britez, Nelson Ruiz; Aldo Paniagua, Robert Piris, Roberto Acuña, Diego Chamorro; Alberto Contrera, Lauro Cazal

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Ismael Benegas, Miguel Samudio; William Mendieta, Sebastian Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nestor Camacho; José Ariel Nuñez, Pablo Velázquez

================================

Carapeguá vs Luque
Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá
21/11/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

Proverbial six-pointer as these two clash in what is a very unpredictable game. The maths states that a Carapeguá win will take them out of the relgation zone at their opponents expense, if Luque were to take all the points then El Potro would be in serious trouble. A draw keeps both of them on the precipice.

Prediction: 1-1

Best Bet: Hard to call this one, probably Under 2.5 goals

Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Celso Gonzalez Fleitas, Marcos Arce, Ruben Maldonado; Raúl Cáceres, Michel Valenzuela, Diosnel Almirón, Rodrigo Soria; Ricardo Ortiz; Imanol Iriberri, David Pereira

Luque XI (probable): Tobias Vargas; Gerzon Chacón, Gonzalo Maulella, Rolando Bogado, Sergio Vergara; Cristian Santacruz, Claudio Vargas, Edgar Robles, Juan Abente, Juan Pablo Raponi; Guido di Vanni

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Cerro de Franco vs Cerro Porteño preview

Cerro de Franco vs Cerro Porteño
Estadio Cerro de Franco
18/11/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

Cerro Porteño visit their namesake in Presidente Franco for the first time since 1994 with the APF allowing the game to go ahead here rather than 3 de Febrero’s stadium in Ciudad del Este, it means eveyr single side will have played in their home stadium this weekend which I hope is a sign of things to come. It is the third visit by the Barrio Obrero side, winning that previous encounter 4-2 and drawing 1-1 back in 1993.

Cerro de Franco’s stadium will receive their namesakes – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro de Franco have the second-longest serving manager in the league in Eduardo Rivera and their stability has allowed them to all but secure primera status for another year. The negative of doing so well means the player’s were guilty of taking their eye of the ball last week and were thumped 4-0 by lowly Tacuary. With that in mind Rivera is expected to make a host of changes, in defence for example the return of Gustavo Velázquez and Cristian Ramirez is expected.

Santiago Salcedo (left) and Roberto Nanni should be too much for their rivals – Photo: Golazo.com.py

Jorge Fossati, yet to decide if he will stay at the club in 2013, will also make a few changes in defence from the side that won against Rubio Ñu last weekend. Expect to see Gonzalo Viera, Mathias Corujo and Luis Cardozo today. Importantly the trio of Jonathan Fabbro, Santiago Salcedo and Roberto Nanni will all start and that kind of firepower is likely to be too much for the side from Presidente Franco.

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Francisco Olmedo; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo, Fabián Balbuena, Cristian Ramirez; Oscar Benítez, Reinaldo López, Arnaldo Recalde, Leonardo Delvalle, Rogerio Leichtweis, Francisco Solano López

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Roberto Fernandez; Luis Cardozo, Gonzalo Viera, Pedro Benítez; Carlos Bonet, Mathias Corujo; Fidencio Oviedo, Julio Dos Santos, Jonathan Fabbro; Roberto Nanni, Santiago Salcedo

Prediction: 1-2

Selected Odds: Cerro PF win 3.1, Draw 3.4, Cerro Porteño win 2.3; Over 2.5 goals 2.1

Best Bet: Those odds for Cerro Porteño look great value, away win

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Tacuary vs Guaraní preview

Tacuary vs Guaraní
Estadio Roberto Bettega
16/11/2012, 19:00 (22:00 GMT)

A few weeks ago this would have been a nailed-on away win for a rampant Guaraní against a rudderless Tacuary, but tonight’s clash has converted itself into a tricky trip to Tacuary for the visitors. The league leaders have gone four games without a win as Diego Alonso’s men start to feel the pressure as they enter the home straight. On the other hand Tacuary are showing glimpses of a revival led by the talented attacking midfielder Nicolas Martínez who has scored seven goals in the last five games helping his side to two wins and a credible draw against Libertad.

Centurión takes on his old club Tacuary – Photo: D10.com.py

Guaraní are expected to go 4-4-2 with 19-year-old Nildo Viera partnering topscorer Diego Centurión up front and another youngster, 21-year-old Luis de la Cruz earning a starting place on the right hand side. Those three along with the stylish Dario Ocampo present the main goal threats for the away team although it is worth noting that overlapping full backs are also a feature of their play as they try to take advantage of Centurión’s aerial ability.

Zeballos Cue’s Roberto Bettega is the scene for tonight’s game

Tacuary are traditionally a defensive side, this year they have been utterly woeful for long periods but in patches they have shown signs of life including last week’s 4-0 drubbing of Cerro de Franco. The attacking potency of ex-West Ham Utd player Brian Montenegro and the aforementioned Martínez is going to test the Aborigen backline that has kept just one cleansheet in the previous nine games. With relegation almost certain they might throw everything at Guaraní knowing that only a series of wins will save them from the Paraguayan Intermedia. From the probable XI below I’m assuming they line up in a narrow 4-2-2-2 with two holding midfielders and two attacking midfielders who roam in the space.

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gómez, Gregor Aguayo, Diego Viera, Marcos Acostas Rojas; Pablo Espinoza, Juan Nuñez; Reinaldo Ocampo, Nicolas Martínez; Ramón Cardozo, Brian Montenegro

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Nildo Viera, Diego Centurión

Prediction: 1-2

Selected Odds: Tacuary win 4.8, Draw 3.8, Guarani win 1.8; 1-2 scoreline 8.6; Over 2.5 goals 2.04

Best Bet: Although I’ve predicted an away win and over 2.5 goals I wouldn’t call either a tip, Guaraní are stuttering and Tacuary are improving, I think a combination of BTTS and Guarani DNB would be best here

Clausura 2012: Week 15 preview

The black and white clásico is Saturday’s only game as Olimpia and Libertad renew their rivalry, then on Sunday we are treated to five games with Guarani hoping to bounce back.

Libertad vs Olimpia (TV)
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
03/11/2012, 19:00
Prediction: 2-1

Castorino came through the Libertad youth system but plays for Olimpia – Photo: Club Olimpia Prensa

A game in which the pressure is certainly on Olimpia, they sit a point behind Libertad in the Copa Libertadores race and know that a four-point gap could be unassailable. The Guma however have their sights set on the league title, a win wouldn’t only give them breathing space from Olimpia but it would also close the gap (at least temporarily) on Guaraní to just two points. Ruben Israel’s men have been on great form recently and I think their attack and central midfield will be too strong for Olimpia.  Pepe Cardozo’s team could go with three at the back and Miguel Amado is set to return following Fabio Caballero’s injury. The positive is the form Olimpia’s strikers, Fredy Bareiro’s scoring run came to an end two games ago but in that time Arnaldo Castorino has contributed with three of his own.

Head-to-Head last five: Olimpia 2 wins (2-1, 1-0), Libertad 2 wins (2-1, 2-0), 1 draw (2-2)

Libertad XI (probable): 

Olimpia  XI (probable): Martín Silva, Salustiano Candia, Julio César Cáceres, Enrique Meza; Eduardo Aranda, Sebastián Ariosa; Miguel Amado, Richard Ortíz; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro.

BEST BET: BTTS (Both Teams to Score)

=============================

Cerro de Franco vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio Juan Eudes Pereira
04/11/2012, 16:30
Prediction: 1-0

Only Tacuary have failed to score in more games than these two sides in 2012 so don’t expect and epic in the East. Cerro de Franco and Rubio Ñu suffered defeats in midweek and both will want to pick themselves up immediately. The visitor’s have never won this fixture in the Primera and their last three trips to Presidente Franco have been fruitless losing 3-1, 1-0 and drawing 0-0. Cerro de Franco will be relying on the services of Rogerio Leichtweis for goals and the striker usually delivers, at the other end they shouldn’t be troubled much by a fairly toothless albiverde attack.

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals

=============================

Independiente vs Sol de América
Ricardo Gregor
04/11/2012, 17:00
Prediction: 1-1

The draw specialists, Sol de América, who have tied seven of their 13 games this season face the losers, Independiente, who have lost 8 of their last ten. So bad is the home side’s run that they have managed to undo much of Pablo Caballero’s good work in 2011 and are in a precarious position on the edge of the relegation zone. One thing both teams can take heart from is their habit of scoring with Sol averaging 1.6 goals per game this year and Independiente with five in their previous four games. The question is can either side keep a cleansheet, Independiente have kept two in their 36 meetings this year, the least of any side in Primera.

BEST BET: Both teams to score

=============================

Nacional vs Tacuary
Arsenio Erico
04/11/2012, 17:00
Prediction: 3-0

The Brazilian Teixeira has been in good form – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Nacional have been one of the most consistent sides this year and are on course to better their 33 points in the Apertura (currently on 26 with 8 games to play). They were comfortable in Wednesday’s game at the Arsenio Erico against Cerro de Franco and expect Sunday to go much the same way. Guarani and Libertad are the only sides to have won in this stadium in the previous ten fixtures and the only other team to come away with a point is Luque in a goalless draw. Tacuary are unlikely to provide much opposition, they’ve lost to nil in their previous 3 games against the Academia (0-2, 0-1, 0-3).

Best Bet: Nacional 2 goals or more

=============================

Luque vs Guaraní (TV)
Feliciano Cáceres
04/11/2012, 17:30
Prediction: 1-1

Luque will look for goals from those two – Photo: Prensa Sportivo Luqueño

Is the pressure getting to these two? Guaraní have gone two games without winning for the first time in the Clausura while Luque have lost their last three games in the Feliciano Cáceres. Both sides need all three points for different reasons but they might just settle for the draw if it means avoiding a defeat that would be devastating at this crucial stage of the season. If any team was going to snatch the victory it is more likely to be Guaraní with their potency up front. Luque have beaten Guaraní just once in the last seven games at this stadium.

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals at a push although this is a hard one to call

=============================

Cerro Porteño vs Carapeguá (TV)
La Olla
04/11/2012, 19:30
Prediction: 3-1

Fabbro may be rested – Photo: Cerro Porteño Twitter Feed

The second leg with Tigre is the only thing on Cerro’s mind, this game is little more than a distraction but that might cause the players to relax and be at their freeflowing best. Fossati will certainly rest players but he is aware of the importance of not upsetting rhythm so expect a handful of changes rather than a ‘B’ team. Carapeguá have the interesting stat of only failing to score 8 times this year, a more positive record than Guarani, Nacional and Olimpia amongst others. Back-to-back wins is probably a little too much to ask having beaten Rubio Ñu on Wednesday, but worth bearing in mind that they beat Libertad this Clausura just a few days after securing three points against Independiente.

BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals

By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at time of writing via Betfair for more betting tips check out CaStRoF betting tips

Copa Sudamericana 2012: Cerro Porteño vs Tigre preview

Cerro Porteño vs Tigre
Estadio Gral. Pablo Rojas a.k.a La Olla
01/11/2012, 19.15 (22.15 GMT)

Fresh from their superclásico mauling of Olimpia on Saturday, Cerro Porteño take on Tigre in the 1st leg of their Copa Sudamericana Quarter Final tie. Just over a week ago in the same stadium the azulgrana progressed against another Argentine side, Colón de Santa Fe, winning both games 2-1. The Buenos Aires club, managed by Néstor Gorosito, are relative newcomers to the international fold, in fact the 2009 Copa Sudamericana was their first ever appearance on the international stage.

La Olla will be bubbling over come kick off…

As always Fossati will want to attack and will play his usual 3-4-1-2 formation with Jonathan Fabbro the playmaker, so far at home Cerro Porteño have won all three games in the competition but this is the first time they are in La Olla for the 1st leg. It means there might be more of an onus on keeping a cleansheet than in the previous rounds. There are no surprises in the first XI, those of you watching Cerro this year will be accustomed to seeing Julio Dos Santos in a deep-lying role to allow Fabbro space, the ‘true’ defensive midfielder is Fidencio Oviedo who was so important against Colón in breaking up the play and starting swift counter-attacks.

Fabbro is the key man as ever – Photo: Twitter @taroba

Tigre used to employ a similar system to Cerro, one that brought a 2nd-place finish in the Clausura earlier this year. However with personnel and a managerial change they are no longer the same side and will probably set up in a standard 4-4-2. They have one Paraguayan in their ranks, former Guaraní and Racing striker Federico Santander could start up front, he once scored against El Ciclón in a 5-4 defeat back in 2009 although don’t expect that many goals today!

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Mariano Uglessich, Pedro Benítez, César Benítez; Carlos Bonet, Fidencio Oviedo, Julio Dos Santos, Walter López; Jonathan Fabbro; Roberto Nanni, Santiago Salcedo

Prediction: 2-0

Selected Odds: Cerro win 1.79, Draw 3.7, Tigre win 5.4, 2-0 scoreline 9.0, Under 2.5 goals 1.8

Best Bet: Tigre have failed to score in their previous three away games making the Over 2.5 less tempting – Cerro win to nil or just the straight win for me

For more betting tips visit CaStRoF betting tips

====================================

Stats and Trivia

Cerro Porteño last 5 home (Copa Sudamericana)

Pld 5 W 3 D 1 L 1 GF 12 GA 4

Tigre last 5 away (all competitions)

Pld 5 W 0 D 3 L 2 GF 3 GA 8

====================================

FULL SQUAD LIST

GK: Roberto Junior Fernandez, Diego Barreto

DEF: Cesar Benitez, Pedro Benitez, Mariano Uglessich, Carlos Bonet, Gonzalo Viera, Victor Hugo Mareco, Luis Cardozo

MID: Julio Dos Santos, Fidencio Oviedo, Jonathan Fabbro, Jorge Rojas, José Domingo Salcedo, Alexis Gonzalez, Juan Manuel Lucero

ATT: Rodrigo Lopez, Alejandro da Silva, Santiago Salcedo, Roberto Nanni

By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at the time of writing via Betfair

Clausura 2012: Guaraní vs Libertad preview

Guaraní vs Libertad
Estadio Rogelio Livieres a.k.a Dos Bocas
30/10/2012, 19.30 (22.30 GMT)

Prensa Club Guarani promoting the game

First plays second in this intriguing battle at Dos Bocas – the previous meeting at this ground was a fantastic end-to-end game which Libertad won 3-2. The home team will be desperate to make amends in this match in what has evolved into arguably the biggest game in Paraguay not involving Cerro and Olimpia.

Guarani’s last fixture with Libertad at Dos Bocas

Diego Alonso was annoyed at dropping points in the previous and let his players know, however there are unlikely to be changes from his standard eleven that has brought so much success this season. The Palau/Orteman double in central midfield are so important and will have to control the ball against their advesaries Eguren/Aquino – the winner of that battle could well determine the result. Up front Dante López has been playing especially well and got the goal against Independiente at the weekend, his partnership with Centurión is likely to bring at least one goal.

Libertad prepare for the game – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

Libertad also slipped up on Friday night and there are three doubts over the starting line up for this match. Does Israel go for Lucho Cáceres or Nelson Romero in midfield and in defence it could be Gustavo Mencia to left back and Ismael Benegas comes back in as centre half. If the latter happens it is likely Miguel Samudio will lose his place unless he goes in midfield at the expense of Nestor Camacho, that would offer the away side more solidity on the flank with Guaraní favouring width. Up front the pace of Nuñez will test Guaraní’s Luis Cabral who has been excellent recently.

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Luís Cabral, Robert Aldama, Édgar Aranda; Luís de La Cruz, Marcelo Palau, Sergio Órteman, Darío Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión.

Libertad XI (possible): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Gustavo Mencia; Miguel Samudio/Ismael Benegas; Nelson Romero/Luis Cáceres, Sebastián Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Néstor Camacho; José Ariel Núñez, Pablo Velázquez

Prediction: 2-1 – time for Guaraní to get their own back

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals – during the Clausura on average Guarani games go under but Libertad’s go over, have a feeling this one is going to be the latter.

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Week 13 Preview

It is the Paraguay superclásico this weekend between Cerro Porteño and Olimpia – that game of sufficient importance to have its own preview. The other five games are right here including three on Friday night!

Cerro de Franco vs Carapeguá
Estadio Juan Eudes Pereira
26/10/2012, 16:30
Prediction: 2-1

Rogerio Leichtweis (Cerro PF) has been in great form – Photo: Cronica

Both promoted sides got important away wins last week and will be full of confidence ahead of Friday afternoon’s clash. Home advantage and the fact that Cerro de Franco usually get the better of El Potro are the reasons I’m backing a home win here. Add to that the form of Rogerio Leichtweis, his last minute winner against Luque puts him as one of the topscorers over the calendar year a great feat in a side that isn’t famed for scoring many goals.

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Francisco Olmedo; Christian Rojas, Nelson Figueredo, Fabian Balbuena, Fulvio Duarte, Miguel Godoy, Reinaldo López, Cristian Andersen, Rogerio Leichtweis, Francisco López

Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Raul Cáceres, Derlis Correa, Marcos Arce, Christian Martinez, Diego Benitez, Michel Valenzuela, Diosnel Almiron, Rodrigo Soria, Ricardo Ortiz, Arnulfo Colmán

BEST BET: Home win

=============================

Independiente vs Guaraní (TV)
Defensores del Chaco
26/10/2012, 18:00
Prediction: 1-3

Guaraní’s win last Friday night against Cerro was a huge stride as they look for their first title since the 2010 Apertura, that year they needed 49 points and they are currently on 31 with ten fixtures left. Diego Centurión has been the star with ten goals so far this season but it is worth mentioning his strike partner, Dante López, the former Genoa man has been excellent with his approach play and clever runs into the channels to make space for Centurión. Independiente hit rock bottom last week, losing to Tacuary which spelled the end of Mario Grana’s brief tenure at the Ricardo Gregor – the new coach Pedro Fleitas has a tough start on his hands. Guarani have never lost to Independiente in their history.

Independiente XI (probable): Roque Cardozo; Rody Martínez, Silvio Borjas, Miguel Almirón, Mario Cáceres; Victor Dávalos, Luis Miño, Michel Romero, Aldo Vera; Emanuel Biancucchi, Luciano Ursino

Guaraní XI (confirmed): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Robert Aldama, Luis Cabral, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Órteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals

=============================

Libertad vs Tacuary (TV)
Tuyucuá
26/10/2012, 20:00
Prediction: 3-0

Libertad have been so strong in the Nicolas Leoz this year

Libertad got off to a lighting start to down Nacional away last weekend and at home they are on top form, winning their last three games in Tuyucuá 3-0. In fact Nacional’s consolation goal was the only they’ve conceded in their previous four matches. Tacuary scored three themselves against Independiente in what was their second victory of the campaign, however against an organised and pacey Libertad side it looks unlikely they’ll come away with anything here.

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Gustavo Mencia, Miguel Samudio; Nelson Romero, Sebastián Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Néstor Camacho; José Ariel Núñez, Pablo Velázquez.

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Gregor Aguayo, Diego Viera, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Jorge Ortega, Pablo Espinoza, Edgar Villalba, Juan Nuñez, Brian Montenegro, Nicolas Martinez

BEST BET: Libertad win to nil

=============================

Cerro Porteño vs Olimpia (TV)
Defensores del Chaco
27/10/2012, 16:30
Prediction: SEE PREVIEW

As mentioned above, this one gets its own preview!

=============================

Rubio Ñu vs Sol de América
La Arboleda
27/10/2012, 16:30
Prediction: 1-1

These two have the bad luck of playing at the same time as the clásico – expect a crowd below three figures. Having picked up a credible draw against Olimpia and away win against Cerro de Franco, Sol slipped up at home last weekend to Carapeguá. That result may well have knocked confidence and a draw could be the best call here even if they are stronger on paper. Rubio Ñu will have been pleased by their attacking performance against Olimpia and especially the form of Diego Chamorro, however he can’t play against his parent club.

BEST BET: Both teams to score

=============================

Luque vs Nacional (TV)
Feliciano Cáceres
27/10/2012, 18:00
Prediction: 1-0

Luque fans will be baying for a win – Photo: Prensa Sportivo Luqueño

A really important game for Luque who still aren’t out of the danger zone, especially after last week’s results that saw them lose at home while the two sides below them picked up three points. There will be plenty of pressure from the fanatical home supporters who have seen two consecutive losses in the Feliciano Cáceres and will be furious at a third. Nacional’s good run was halted by a rampant Libertad last week and although they are a better side than Luque, the last two games here have gone the way of the locals. Necessity is why they should snatch this game on Sunday which rounds off Week 13.

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals with both sides not big scorers and Luque good defensively

By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at time of writing via Betfair for more betting tips check out CaStRoF betting tips

Clausura 2012: Week 12 Preview

The ‘vuelta’ begins with the second round of games starting on Friday night, Cerro Porteño looking for revenge for their first day defeat against Guaraní. Another intriguing clash follows as Libertad travel across town to Barrio Obrero to play Nacional on Saturday while Olimpia play on Sunday at home to Rubio Ñu.

Guaraní vs Cerro Porteño
Defensores del Chaco
19/10/2012, 19:30
Prediction: 2-1

Diego Centurion vs Jony Fabbro – Photo: D10.com.py

Both teams are putting out strong sides, Cerro Porteño have their Copa Sudamericana game on Tuesday night but Fossati has stated he would like to use this as a warm up for that crunch 2nd leg and is expected to put out the same XI in both matches. With the game on neutral ground, Cerro will fancy their chances if they can get the ball in space however the aurinegro know that with Diego Centurión on form they will be a danger if they can get the ball into the penalty box by any means. This game could well be decided by the first goal, not that I expect a 1-0 but that both teams have great conversion rates this year having scored first (Guaraní win 82% of games having scored first, Cerro 79% of games).

Guaraní XI (confirmed): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Robert Aldama, Luis Cabral, Edgar Aranda; Iván González Ferreira, Sergio Órteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

Cerro Porteño XI (probable): Diego Barreto; Mariano Uglessich, Pedro Benítez, Cesar Benítez; Carlos Bonet, Julio Dos Santos, Fidencio Oviedo, Domingo Salcedo; Jonathan Fabbro; Roberto Nanni, Santiago Salcedo

BEST BET: Both teams to score a good bet here as the final result could go either way.

=============================

Nacional vs Libertad (TV)
Arsenio Erico
19/10/2012, 16:30
Prediction: 1-2

The Arsenio Erico awaits! – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Nacional have been strong at home but they face a revitalised Libertad side who have 2013 Copa Libertadores firmly in their sights. It promises to be a good game with both sides making up the chasing pack behind league leaders Guaraní. The Gumarelo have come out on top in the last three meetings by a single goal and I see a repeat on Saturday with the strength of Pablo Velazquez and the pace of José Ariel Nuñez unsettling Nacional’s backline. The one difference to the Nacional XI below could be the inclusion of Marcos Riveros in central midfield who is fighting to recover from a muscle strain.

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Raul Piris, Leonardo Caceres, David Mendoza; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Derlis Orué, Silvio Torales, Marcos Melgarejo; César Cáceres Cañete, Javier Gonzalez

Libertad XI (possible): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Ismael Benegas, Gustavo Mencia; Nelson Romero, Sebastián Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Néstor Camacho; José Ariel Núñez, Pablo Velázquez.

BEST BET: Away win

=============================

Sol de América vs Carapeguá
Estadio Luis Gigani
19/10/2012, 16:30
Prediction: 3-0

Sol welcome Carapeguá to Villa Elisa where they are unbeaten in seven matches with the visitors winless in three games on the road conceding 8 goals. The danzarín have mixed news in midfield, starting with the positive and the return of topscorer Sergio Escalante from injury but countered by the loss of David Mendieta (suspended) who will be replaced by Carlos Recalde. Hard to see the away side getting anything from this match.

Sol de América XI (probable): oberto Acosta; Roberto Bonet, Ricardo Martínez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Ciz; Sergio Escalante, Ángel Enciso, Marcos Duré, Carlos Recalde; Esteban Rivas, Enzo Prono

BEST BET: Sol to score at least 2 goals (they average 1.63 per game, Carapeguá concede 1.42 on average)

=============================

Tacuary vs Independiente
Roberto Bettegá
19/10/2012, 18:00
Prediction: 1-0

Finally a chance for Tacuary to win a game as they face the equally uninspiring Independiente. This really is a basement battle with both sides on just five points after 11 games and with goal differences of -12 and -14 respectively. Tacuary at home could have enough to defeat Independiente especially with their strength from set pieces. Also they’ve welcomed back some of the ‘pariah players’ such as Gregor Aguayo who was relegated to the youth teams for poor performance but has since been welcomed back. Independiente have made wholesale changes following their 5-1 thrashing by Nacional, expect around six changes with three coming in defence!

Tacuary XI (possible): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Giménez, Gregor Aguayo, Diego Viera, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Reinaldo Ocampo, Pablo Espinoza, Edward Villalba, Juan Núnez; Jorge Ortega, Nicolás Martínez

Independiente XI (probable): Roque Cardozo; Rody Martínez, Milciades Portillo, Miguel Almirón, Marcos Giménez; Aldo Vera, Luis Miño, José Báez, Richard Lugo; Emanuel Biancucchi, Luciano Ursino

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals

=============================

Luque vs Cerro de Franco
Feliciano Cáceres
18/10/2012, 18:00
Prediction: 2-0

Edgar Robles is back in the starting line-up – Photo: Prensa Sportivo Luqueño

Luque should be too strong at home in this clash with Cerro de Franco who are still fighiting to stay up. They’ve made a few changes with Edgar ‘Pikachu’ Robles back in midfield also Diego Godoy returns on the left-hand side bringing more pace and creativity. Up front Adrian Duarte makes way for Christian Ovelar. Cerro de Franco also make a triple change with Ramirez (suspended), Miguel López (injured) and Reinaldo López preferred to Oscar Benítez. I expect a home win, Luque have only slipped up in the Feliciano Cáceres to Cerro Porteño and Libertad.

Luque XI (probable): Tobías Vargas; Rolando Bogado, Gonzalo Maulella, Sergio Vergara; Claudio Vargas, Juan Abente, Juan Raponi, Égdar Robles, Diego Godoy; Cristhian Ovelar, Guido Di Vanni

BEST BET: Home win

=============================

Olimpia vs Rubio Ñu (TV)
Para Uno
19/10/2012, 19:00
Prediction: 1-0

Rubio Ñu train in the Arboleda – Photo: Prensa Club Rubio Ñu

Chiqui Arce was a constant thorn in Olimpia’s side in his previous spell as manager losing once in his previous eight meetings against El Decano including a couple of memorable wins (3-1 in the 2011 Apertura and 4-1 in the 2010 Clausura). Unfortunately for the albiverde Neri Cardozo is still injured, the striker has a great scoring record against Olimpia. It is likely that Roberto Gamarra will start up front with Jorge ‘Mono’ Benítez also hoping for a return to the side. Olimpia have a few concerns in defence, both Kike Meza and Julio Cesar Cáceres are injured so veteran midfield Carlos Humberto Paredes will fill in as a centre-back. The Biancucchi/Bareiro double act continues up front with ‘Zorro‘ looking in good form and would be my tip to get the winner in what will probably be a close contest.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Alejandro Silva, Carlos H. Paredes, Salustiano Candia, Eugenio Montiel; Eduardo Aranda, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz, Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Maxi Biancucchi, Fredy Bareiro

BEST BET: Statisitcally an Olimpia cleansheet looks a good bet, they’ve kept 17 in 43 games this year and Rubio Ñu average under a goal a game (0.94)

By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at time of writing via Betfair for more betting tips check out CaStRoF betting tips

World Cup Qualifiers: Colombia vs Paraguay Stat Pack

As with all the World Cup Qualifiers before the preview we give you some stats and head-to-heads between Paraguay and their opponent, in this case Colombia. As you can see it isn’t great reading for the albirroja who also boast the worst Goals per Game average and have conceded more than anybody else in the qualifiers to date.

Form Guide

Paraguay last 5 games

Pld 5 W 1 D 1 L 3 GF  6 GA 11

Paraguay last 5 away games (neutral venue not included)

Paraguay training in Ypané – Photo: Prensa Selección Paraguaya de Fútbol

Pld 5 W 1 D 0 L 4 GF 5 GA 11

Paraguay last 5 World Cup Qualifiers

Pld 5 W 1 D 0 L 5 GF  4 GA 11

Paraguay last 5 away World Cup Qualifiers

Pld 5 W 1 D 0 L 4 GF 4 GA 11

Head-to-Head

Paraguay vs Colombia Overall

Pld 39 W 17 D 7 L 15 GF 47 GA 45

Paraguay vs Colombia World Cup Qualifiers

Pld 20 W 10 D 4 L 6 GF 25 GA 20

Paraguay vs Colombia World Cup Qualifiers in Barranquilla

Pld 4 W 0 D 2 L 2 GF 2 GA 4

Scoring

Paraguay results having scored the first goal (since June 2010)

Pld 18 W 15 D 3 L 0 – the last time Paraguay scored first and lost was WCQ away to Brazil in 2009

Paraguay results  having conceded the first goal (since June 2010)

Pld 15 W 0 D 3 L 12 - the last time Paraguay conceded first and won was WCQ at home to Uruguay in 2003

Paraguay’s goal scorers in World Cup Qualifiers since 2007

Salvador Cabañas x 6

Nelson Haedo Valdez x 5

Crisitian Riveros x 5

Roque Santa Cruz x 3

Oscar Cardozo x 2

Nelson Haedo will be hoping to find the net – Photo: Prensa Selección Paraguaya de Fútbol

Paulo da Silva x 2

Richard Ortiz

Dario Verón

Edgar Benitez

Néstor Ayala

Jonathan Fabbro

Paraguay’s goalscorers in last ten matches

Edgar Benitez x 3

Jonathan Fabbro x 2

Cristian Riveros x 2

Oscar Cardozo

Dario Veron

Julio Manzur

José Ortigoza

Ariel Bogado

Jonathan Santana

Ricardo Mazacotte

Hernan Perez

By Ralph Hannah