Clausura 2012: Relegation battle previews including Cerro Porteño vs Tacuary

Saturday sees four games and while I won’t preview the ‘dead rubber’ of Sol vs Cerro de Franco in Villa Elisa, the other three games are tantalising. Independiente, Tacuary and Carapeguá must take maximum points to have a chance of surviving and they face Nacional, Cerro Porteño and Olimpia respectively – a huge ask.

Two of these three will go down – Photo: D10.com.py

Independiente vs Nacional
Estadio Ricardo Gregor
15/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

The president of Independiente, Mario Paredes, has offered the team a bonus of 250 million guaranies (US$ 55,000) if they manage to stay up. It is a tough ask though against a Nacional side who still have a mathematical chance of winning the league, in fact they will be joint top should they prevail in the Ricardo Gregor. This fixture has traditionally favoured Nacional who have put five goals past their opponents in the previous three encounters! Of course Independiente have also enjoyed a 5-1 win against Nacional just last year but in that instance they were aided by a hattrick from Lorenzo Melgarejo now of Benfica.

I expect Nacional to be good enough to win, they were very offensive against Cerro Porteño last week in a game they lost and will still be stinging from, expect them to go all out against Independiente.

Prediction: 1-3

WHAT IF?

Independiente win – they will stay up if Carapeguá draw or lose

Independiente draw – they will stay up if both Carapeguá and Tacuary lose

Independiente lose – relegated

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Cerro Porteño vs Tacuary
La Olla
15/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

The azulgrana p***ed on Nacional’s parade last weekend and they will hope to spoil Tacuary’s party today with a final win to end a fairly successful centenary year. As Fossati proved in the Barrio Obrero derby he wants to win whether the championship is at stake or not and I think they will take pleasure in relegating a side who have proved a stern opponent in recent years. Tacuary of course are doing their upmost to remain in Primera with the board offering their players a massive survival bonus fo 200,000 dollars. With that kind of incentive there could well be some surprises in La Olla this evening.

Prediction: 2-1

How do…?

Tacuary stay up…if Carapeguá and Independiente draw or lose, if Carapeguá lose and Independiente win but Tacuary also win

Tacuary go down…a Carapeguá win sends them down regardless, an Independiente win would see them relegated if they can’t beat Cerro

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Carapeguá vs Olimpia
Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá
15/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

Carapeguá’s 44th game in the top division could well be their last, such a shame for a side that played very well at times particularly in the Apertura and are now owners of a wonderful stadium and incredible supporters. With football so orientated around the capital Asunción and her surrounding cities it has been great to see a team from the countryside play a part in this year’s tournament. They play the weakest Olimpia team in a long while, lacking direction, players at odds with their outspoken president and a Pepe Cardozo struggling in his third spell as coach. Could that be enough for El Potro to win and secure their spot in the 2013 Primera? Like the other relegation candidates there is a bonus on offer, just 200 million guaranies though which is five times less than what Tacuary are being offered…could that be crucial?

Prediction: 1-1

WIN OR WIN

Carapeguá win - they stay up regardless of other results

Carapeguá draw or lose - they go down regardless of other results

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By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Cerro de Franco vs Libertad preview and more

Cerro de Franco vs Libertad
Estadio Presidente Franco
07/12/2012; 17:15 (20:15 GMT)

Joint league leaders Libertad are first to play in the penultimate weekend of the season, they travel 330 km to the east of the country to face Cerro de Franco who started life under new manager Juan Manuel Battaglia with an impressive draw against Olimpia. While in theory Cerro de Franco have nothing left to play for there is likely to be a big incentive (read win bonus) for the home side coming from Nacional and Guarani.

Cerro de Franco’s stadium – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro de Franco will put out a strong side with players desperate to get a result to improve their points total for next year’s promedio  and get a big win bonus. Top scorer Rogerio Leichtweis is unavailable (he is owned by Libertad) so Samudio and López start up front. Fulvio Duarte is back from suspension and will slot into midfield. The side are on a poor run at the moment, one goal in the previous five games (3 defeats, 2 draws).

Libertad by contrast have won their last four matches scoring 15 goals in the process! The duo of Pablo Velazquez and José Ariel Nuñez has been too hot for most defences to handle with one of the pair scoring in 9 of the previous 11 games, showing their importance to the side. If those two click it could be carnage in Alto Parana!

Prediction: 0-2

Best Bet: Away win, it might be difficult though with the home team playing for money and the heat expected to be around 35c but Libertad have won all three games without conceding against this rival so far in 2012

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Cristhian Rojas, Marcos Pérez, Cristian Ramírez; Fulvio Duarte, Óscar Benítez, Leonardo Delvalle, Miguel Godoy; Francisco López, Sergio Samudio

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz, Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Ismael Benegas, Miguel Samudio; Nelson Romero, Sergio Aquino, Sebastian Eguren, William Mendieta, Pablo Velazquez, José Ariel Nuñez

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Tacuary vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio Roberto Bettega
07/12/2012; 19:00 (22:00 GMT)

Tacuary are involved in a three-way tie at the bottom of the league, the fact they are even in with a slim chance of survival is down to two things: the side finally playing somewhere close to their potential and the amazing scoring form of Nicolas Martinez (who I talked about in more depth here). Being at home and playing a rival that is in horrendous shape  - Rubio Ñu haven’t scored for two games, the last game they did score in they lost 7-2 – this should well be another win for the Tacuary ‘Lazarus’.

Prediction: 2-1

Best Bet: Home win

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Gregor Aguayo, Diego Viera, Marcos Acostas Rojas; Reinaldo Ocampo, Pablo Espinoza, Juan Nuñez, Brian Montenegro, Nicolas Martínez, Ramón Cardozo

Rubio Ñu XI (probable): Blas Valenzeula; Arnaldo Rodriguez, Oscar Ayala, Oscar Velazquez, Nelson Ruiz; Angel Lucena, Gustavo Viera, Robert Piris, Diego Chamorro; Lauro Cazal, Francisco Vera

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Luque vs Independiente
Estadio Feliciano Cáceres
07/12/2012; 19:15 (22:15 GMT)

Martinez is the key for Tacuary – Photo: d10.com.py

Another relegation battle with two sides in danger still of dropping into the Intermedia. Independiente have been in freefall and even the unprecedented managerial-loan of Humberto Garcia from Gral. Diaz for two games (move over Alan Shearer!) probably won’t save them. Luque have a better side on paper, the players will be paid a bonus of 100 million guaranies if they win this game (and much more if they stay up) so I think that will prove sufficient motivation.

Prediction: 1-0

Best Bet: Home win

Luque XI (probable): Tobias Vargas; Luciano Vera, Gonzalo Maulella, Sergio Vergara, Claudio Vargas; Juan Pablo Raponi, William Schuster, Juan Abente, Edgar Robles; José Burgos, Guido di Vanni

Independiente XI (probable): Roque Cardozo; Victor Davalos, Michel Godoy, Sergio Almirón, Mario Cáceres; Michel Romero, Luis Miño, José Baez, Francisco Garcia; Gabriel Avalos, Gabriel Vieira

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By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco preview plus Wednesday’s other games

Once again we look at the headline game on TV as Guaraní try to keep themselves from falling further off the pace against Cerro de Franco who have conceded 9 goals in their previous two outings. We also look at league leaders Nacional’s trip to Villa Elisa to face Sol de América and Olimpia’s home game against Tacuary. Rubio Ñu vs Libertad and Carapeguá vs Luque are also featured.

Guaraní vs Cerro de Franco (TV)
Dos Bocas
21/11/2012; 18.20 (21.20 GMT)

The aborigen are in trouble, they’ve lost the lead and the momentum has now shifted in favour of Nacional. The big problem has been goals, Diego Centurión is on a drought and while Dante López was bailing him out he has been injured for the previous two games and as such Guaraní have failed to score despite creating plenty of chances in the previous 180 minutes. The good news is that partnership will be restored tonight and as such the goals should flow once more.

Dante is back for Guarani – Photo: D10.com.py

Cerro de Franco have also been floundering recently albeit in totally contrasting circumstances. After a gruelling 11 months in which they have garnered an impressive 48 points the players understandably feel it is a case of mission complete and are ready for the summer break. Asunción hasn’t been a happy hunting ground either during the Clausura, Cerro de Franco’s two away wins have come in Luque and Carapeguá both cities outside of the capital.

Fortunately for Guarani they aren’t playing a team fighting for something so they should find this game easier than the battle in the Bettegá on Friday night. The key is goals, if they score early on then there should be no problem and they could go on to win comfortably.

Prediction: 2-0

Best Bet: Home win

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Tomas Bartomeus, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Dante López, Diego Centurión

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo, Fabian Balbuena, Arnaldo Recalde; Oscar Benítez, Reinaldo López, Leonardo Delvalle, Cristian Andersen; Rogerio Leichtweis, Sergio Samudio

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Sol de América vs Nacional
Luis Giagni
21/11/2012; 17.00 (20.00 GMT)

Finally the spotlight is on Nacional, Gustavo Moringio’s team has plugged away for the last five games and harvested fifteen points to lift them up into first place. The goals have been flowing throughout the year, the difference from the Apertura (where they finished fifth) is the defence which has been helped by the protection in midfield offered by Marcos Riveros and the excellent performances of Raúl Piris who brought up his 300th game for the tricolor in the victory against Olimpia.

Teixeira in training, he has been in good form – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Sol, like Cerro de Franco, are kicking their heels already as they wait for their holidays – an excellent Apertura dispelled any relegation doubts and put them in contention for a Copa Sudamericana place. The failure to win more than three games in the Clausura has put them out of the continental race so these last few games are very much a formality. Undoubtedly they will be less motivated than their title-chasing opponents.

Prediction: 0-1

Best Bet: Saw amazing odds on the away win, anything over 1.7 is good value in my opinion

Sol de América XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Robert Bonet, Ricardo Martinez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Arrua; Alfredo Mazacotte, Angel Enciso, Edgar Orzusa, David Mendieta; Esteban Rivas, Diego Vázquez

Nacional XI (probable): Ignacio Don; Ramón Coronel, Raúl Piris, David Mendoza, Marcos Miers; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Silvio Torales, Marcos Riveros, Marco Melgarejo; Cesar Cáceres Cañete, Rodrigo Teixeira

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Olimpia vs Tacuary (TV)
Para Uno
21/11/2012; 20.20 (23.20 GMT)

After their humiliation in the Arsenio Erico the side return to the comfort of familiar standings and hope to win their fifth consecutive match in the ‘Bosque’. They play a Tacuary team that has finally won two games in a row for the first time in almost a year. Like Olimpia they prefer to be at home, their form on the road in 2012 is horrendous – Pld 20 W 1 D 4 L 15 – hardly inspires confidence ahead of tonight’s match.

Olimpia, even without suspended Richard Ortiz, and Tacuary, even with the topscorer and comeback-kid Nicolas Martínez, should hold true to their respective form in home and away matches.

Prediction: 3-1

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals better value than home win

Olimpia XI (probable): Martin Silva; Salustiano Candia, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Enrique Meza; Alejandro Silva, Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Paredes, Sebastian Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Gregor Aguayo, Deigo Viera, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Reinaldo Ocampo, Pablo Espinoza, Edward Villalba, Juan Nuñez; Nicolas Martínez, Ramón Cardozo

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Rubio Ñu vs Libertad
La Arboleda
21/11/2012; 16:50 (19:50 GMT)

Owing to the timing of this game the Guma will go top of the league for at least ten minutes if they can win by three goals, they are very much still in the running with the crunch match coming on Sunday against Cerro Porteño. This game should be a formality with Rubio Ñu on an awful run, José Ariel Nuñez back from suspension and Libertad’s historic dominance in this fixture (won the previous nine games).

Prediction: 0-2

Best Bet: Away win

Rubio Ñu XI (probable): Osvaldo Cabral; Arnaldo Rodriguez, Derlis Riveros, Jorge Britez, Nelson Ruiz; Aldo Paniagua, Robert Piris, Roberto Acuña, Diego Chamorro; Alberto Contrera, Lauro Cazal

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Joe Bizera, Ismael Benegas, Miguel Samudio; William Mendieta, Sebastian Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nestor Camacho; José Ariel Nuñez, Pablo Velázquez

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Carapeguá vs Luque
Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá
21/11/2012; 17:00 (20:00 GMT)

Proverbial six-pointer as these two clash in what is a very unpredictable game. The maths states that a Carapeguá win will take them out of the relgation zone at their opponents expense, if Luque were to take all the points then El Potro would be in serious trouble. A draw keeps both of them on the precipice.

Prediction: 1-1

Best Bet: Hard to call this one, probably Under 2.5 goals

Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Celso Gonzalez Fleitas, Marcos Arce, Ruben Maldonado; Raúl Cáceres, Michel Valenzuela, Diosnel Almirón, Rodrigo Soria; Ricardo Ortiz; Imanol Iriberri, David Pereira

Luque XI (probable): Tobias Vargas; Gerzon Chacón, Gonzalo Maulella, Rolando Bogado, Sergio Vergara; Cristian Santacruz, Claudio Vargas, Edgar Robles, Juan Abente, Juan Pablo Raponi; Guido di Vanni

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Tacuary vs Guaraní preview

Tacuary vs Guaraní
Estadio Roberto Bettega
16/11/2012, 19:00 (22:00 GMT)

A few weeks ago this would have been a nailed-on away win for a rampant Guaraní against a rudderless Tacuary, but tonight’s clash has converted itself into a tricky trip to Tacuary for the visitors. The league leaders have gone four games without a win as Diego Alonso’s men start to feel the pressure as they enter the home straight. On the other hand Tacuary are showing glimpses of a revival led by the talented attacking midfielder Nicolas Martínez who has scored seven goals in the last five games helping his side to two wins and a credible draw against Libertad.

Centurión takes on his old club Tacuary – Photo: D10.com.py

Guaraní are expected to go 4-4-2 with 19-year-old Nildo Viera partnering topscorer Diego Centurión up front and another youngster, 21-year-old Luis de la Cruz earning a starting place on the right hand side. Those three along with the stylish Dario Ocampo present the main goal threats for the away team although it is worth noting that overlapping full backs are also a feature of their play as they try to take advantage of Centurión’s aerial ability.

Zeballos Cue’s Roberto Bettega is the scene for tonight’s game

Tacuary are traditionally a defensive side, this year they have been utterly woeful for long periods but in patches they have shown signs of life including last week’s 4-0 drubbing of Cerro de Franco. The attacking potency of ex-West Ham Utd player Brian Montenegro and the aforementioned Martínez is going to test the Aborigen backline that has kept just one cleansheet in the previous nine games. With relegation almost certain they might throw everything at Guaraní knowing that only a series of wins will save them from the Paraguayan Intermedia. From the probable XI below I’m assuming they line up in a narrow 4-2-2-2 with two holding midfielders and two attacking midfielders who roam in the space.

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gómez, Gregor Aguayo, Diego Viera, Marcos Acostas Rojas; Pablo Espinoza, Juan Nuñez; Reinaldo Ocampo, Nicolas Martínez; Ramón Cardozo, Brian Montenegro

Guaraní XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea; Eduardo Filippini, Luis Cabral, Elvis Marecos, Edgar Aranda; Luis de la Cruz, Sergio Orteman, Marcelo Palau, Dario Ocampo; Nildo Viera, Diego Centurión

Prediction: 1-2

Selected Odds: Tacuary win 4.8, Draw 3.8, Guarani win 1.8; 1-2 scoreline 8.6; Over 2.5 goals 2.04

Best Bet: Although I’ve predicted an away win and over 2.5 goals I wouldn’t call either a tip, Guaraní are stuttering and Tacuary are improving, I think a combination of BTTS and Guarani DNB would be best here

Week 11 Wrap: Form is temporary, class is permanent as big teams take maximum points

Not a single draw in the league this weekend as the favourites won every game and for the first time in a long time Olimpia, Cerro Porteño and Libertad all recorded wins to nil. Here we go through each game briefly.

Nacional vs Independiente
5-1 – Teixeira (2), Cáceres Cañete, Ruiz Peralta, D. Orué; E.Biancucchi

Nacional kept up their good record in the Estadio Arsenio Erico and are going through a good period at the moment, with three wins in their last four games. They also maintained their remarkable run against Independiente and have now put five past them in the previous three games having won 5-2 and 5-0 earlier in the year.

Guaraní vs Rubio Ñu
2-0 – Dante López, Diego Centurión

Nice collage of Guaraní’s game – Photo: Prensa Club Guaraní

The aurinegro’s wonderful campaign continues, they are eight in front of second place at the halfway stage having taken 28 from a possible 33 points. Diego Centurión has been the star scoring nine goals in eleven games with four of them, like his goal against Rubio Ñu, coming from headers. The away team’s problem has been goals, just seven so far as Chiqui Arce really misses a striker.

Luque vs Libertad
0-2 – Romero, Nuñez

Wasn’t an easy debut for the Luque keeper – Photo: Prensa Sportivo Luqueño

Luque lost their first game at home this season, which says a lot about how well Libertad are playing right now. In the preview I also mentioned the pressure on their 20-yr-old keeper who was at fault for the opening goal. The result sees Libertad join Luque in second place as they continue their chase for a spot in the 2013 Copa Libertadores.

Cerro de Franco vs Sol de América
0-1 – Cecilio Dominguez

A very good win for the danzarín who compounded Cerro de Franco to their fifth winless game the kind of form that could put them back in the danger zone. The only goal of the game was by 18-year-old Cecilio Dominguez who had come on as a sub. The teenager has already caught the eye with the Paraguay U20s side in a recent tournament.

Olimpia vs Carapeguá
3-0 – Richard Ortiz, Maxi Biancucchi, Fredy Bareiro

A win after three consecutive draws gave Olimpia fans something to cheer about, the first goal was a ‘rocket’ from Richard Ortiz who is one of the brightest young hopes in the country. Biancucchi scored a rare header while Fredy Bareiro notched the third which incidentally is his third goal in as many games. If they are to get a spot in the Copa Libertadores next year they will need ‘zorro’ Bareiro  to keep this run going.

Tacuary vs Cerro Porteño
0-2 – Nanni (2)

The Argentine veteran Roberto Nanni was the hero as El Ciclón finally ended a sequence of four consecutive league draws. He was handed an opportunity to open the scoring on the stroke of halftime when Ronald Huth inexplicably stuck out an arm in the penalty area to bring down a cross. The second goal came soon after the break, a good move involving Walter López and Julio Dos Santos culminating in Nanni’s finish. Tacuary are in freefall, they are surelty going to be relegated and in the wake of this latest result have sacked three players and sent three more to train with the youth teams.

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OFF THE BALL

Johnny Fabbro did a Mike Ashley (sort of) last night at the game, eating ice cream and posing for photos amongst Cerro fans at La Olla t – he wasn’t eligible for the game having been called up to the national team.

Staying with Cerro Porteño and they are the only team in action on international weekend, a friendly against Boca Juniors for their centenary celebrations.

By Ralph Hannah

Clausura 2012: Week Seven Preview

Tacuary take on Olimpia on Saturday while the rest of the round’s games take place on a Super Sunday, we’re expected warm temperatures this weekend which (in my opinion but no scientific fact) usually means tighter games with less goals. I’ve recently done my homework on average goal times which I’m sharing with you all this week.

Tacuary vs Olimpia (TV)
Roberto Bettega
01/09/2012, 18:15
Prediction: 0-2

The Bettega will be used to host Olimpia

Olimpia are hoping to bounce back after their disappointing defeat to Emelec in midweek, Gergorio Perez has made several changes to that starting line up and looks to be going for an ultra offensive 4-2-1-3 formation with Biancucchi joining Castorino and Fredy Bareiro in attack. Tacuary have been dragged into the relegation zone following Carapeguá’s back-to-back wins and are 288 minutes without a goal and five games without a win. This could well be another defeat for the home side.

Olimpia XI (confirmed): Martín Silva; Alejandro Silva, Julio César Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza; Eduardo Aranda, Richard Ortiz, Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Maxi Biancucchi, Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro

Olimpia most likely to score: 31-45 mins or 76-90 mins

Tacuary most likely to score: 45-60 mins

SELECTED ODDS: Tacuary win 4.1; Draw 3.45, Olimpia win 1.65

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals could be a good cover for the Olimpia win as this fixture has finished 0-0 in 3 out of last 6

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Cerro de Franco vs Guaraní
Estadio Cerro de Franco
02/09/2012, 15:00
Prediction: 1-1

Cerro de Franco await the league leaders – Photo: D10.com.py

Guaraní have to travel to the east of the country following their loss to Millonarios and it could be a difficult game for them if the defeat weighs heavily on their mind. Cerro de Franco have been looking good at home (3 wins in last 5) and always feel they have a chance of scoring with Rogerio Leichtweis in the team. It was Leichtweis who got the winner in the previous meeting between the sides in Presidente Franco and he is part of a full strength XI. At the time of writing Guaraní hadn’t decided who would travel to the game, they have one training session on Saturday afternoon before confirming.

Cerro de Franco most likely to score: 31-45 or 76 to 90 mins

Guaraní most likely to score: 76-90 mins

Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo,Fabián Balbuena; Cristian Ramírez , Reinaldo López, Óscar Benítez, Miguel Godoy, Arnaldo Recalde; Christian Andersen, Rogerio Leichtweis

SELECTED ODDS: Libertad win 1.51; Draw 3.9; Sol win 6.2

BEST BET: Both team to score

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Luqueño vs Carapeguá
Estadio Feliciano Cáceres
02/09/2012, 15:00
Prediction: 2-0

Both sides were involved in midweek action with Luque drawing a thriller in Villa Elisa against Sol de América and Carapeguá recording their first ever victory in their new stadium against Libertad. Juan Arce was so impressed by that performance he will keep the same team to take on Luque with Ricardo ‘Tom’ Ortiz playing particularly well in the creative role recently. Luque took the lead in their previous game against Sol but were blown away in a five minute spell in the first half, they did have chances to win towards the end and look good going forward. They should be good enough for a win here.

Luque most likely to score: 61-75 mins

Carapeguá most likely to score: 31-45 mins

Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Raúl Cáceres, Rubén Maldonado, Marcos Arce, Cristian Martínez; Esteban Ramírez, Diosnel Almirón, Rodrigo Soria; Ricardo Ortiz; Diego Benítez, Marco Prieto

BEST BET: Home win

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Nacional vs Sol de América (TV)
Estadio Arsenio Erico
02/09/2012, 15:00
Prediction: 2-1

Nacional in training looking for a home win – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

Nacional took the lead only to lose at home last weekend as they are yet to find a win in the Arsenio Erico in the Clausura. However, that stat is misleading as the two sides they’ve face in Barrio Obrero are the league’s top two Guaraní and Luque. They won three in a row at the end of the Apertura and I think they have what it takes to beat Sol in Sunday’s first televised match. It is worth noting that the left hand side is weakened with Marcos Miers (injured) and Marcos Melagrejo (suspended) and combined with Sol’s attacking potential that could spell goals for both sides. The away team are missing David Mendieta who is a creative force although the form players have been right midfielder Sergio Escalante and striker Diego Vázquez who both start having scored against Luque.

Nacional most likely to score: 31-45 or 61-75 mins

Sol most likely to score: 0-15 mins

Nacional XI (probable): Oscar Aguero; Ramón Coronel, Matías Perez, Raúl Piris, David Medoza; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Marcos Riveros, César Cáceres Cañete, Silvio Torales; Rodrigo Teixeira, Javier Gonzalez

Sol XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Roberto Bonet, Ricardo Martínez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Ciz; Sergio Escalante, Ángel Enciso, Marcos Duré, Carlos Recalde; Diego Vázquez, Lorenzo Frutos

BEST BET: Both teams to score

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Independiente vs Cerro Porteño (TV)
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
02/09/2012, 17:20
Prediction: 0-1

Fossati will make changes, don’t expect him to start himself though – Photo: Club Cerro Porteño

Independiente won the corresponding fixture last season with an excellent display from Emanuel Biancucchi and their head-to-head with Cerro isn’t bad (Pld 6 W 2 D 1 L 3). Take into account Cerro’s trip to and from Venezuela and the likely changes (although no confirmation as yet) to the first team and you might be tempted to think Independiente can get something out of this game. Nevertheless I think the azulgrana will be good enough to eek out a result, Inde are on a poor run of form and have been unable to keep a cleansheet in the Clausura and pressure is mounting on their coach Carlos Jara Saguier to get them out of the rut or he could be replaced by his predecessor Alicio Solalinde. Narrow win to Cerro (who aren’t playing away, the game is at a neutral venue).

Independiente most likely to score: 61-75 mins

Cerro most likely to score: 76-90 mins

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals

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Libertad vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio Nicolas Leóz
02/09/2012, 18:00
Prediction: 1-0

Libertad are on a bad run of form, culminating in the defeat by Carapeguá on Wednesday which ended a run of four draws. Rubio Ñu picked up their first win in fifteen against Independiente but it was hardly convincing and Chiqui Arce has plenty of problems as he looks for some better results. Ruben Israel seems to have his defence and attack set but he is still finding the right balance in midfield (not easy for a side that was reliant on Topo Cáceres for so many years). The doubt is on the left wing (see below) and there is even a chance that Nestor Camacho plays to offer them more pace. Whatever the starting formation they are considerably stronger than Rubio Ñu on paper and they should win, it is unlikely to be a classic.

Libertad most likely to score: 61-75 mins

Rubio Ñu most likely to score: 76-90 mins

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Jorge Moreira, Ismael Benegas, Joe Bizera, Miguel Samudio; Luis Cáceres, Sebastián Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nelson Romero or Gustavo Cristaldo; José Ariel Núñez, Pablo Velázquez

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals

By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at time of writing via Betfair for more betting tips check out CaStRoF betting tips

Copa Sudamericana round-up: Cerro Porteño and Olimpia progress with wins

The two Paraguayan powerhouses have negotiated passage to the second round, Olimpia as ever suffered on the way while Cerro Porteño coasted to an excellent win. Guaraní have a tough game in Bolivia tonight, needing to overturn a one-goal deficit which was something Tacuary couldn’t do in Chile on Tuesday night and as predicted they crash out in the first round.

Cerro Porteño vs O’Higgins
Estadio Gral. Pablo Rojas a.k.a La Olla
(2-0) 4-0 – Fabbro, Oviedo, S. Salcedo, A.Da Silva
Agg: 7-3

The rout began after 14 minutes with Jonathan Fabbro showing his strength that sets him apart from a classic playmaker to shrug off the attentions of a defender a fire home from outside the box. Straight from kick off they doubled the lead, Fidencio Oviedo pickpocketed the O’Higgins midfield before playing a one-two with Rodrigo López and shooting low across the goalkeeper.

In the second half Cerro made sure of victory with a third goal from substitute Santiago Salcedo who slotted home following a slick move. The fourth goal came on the stroke of full time, another replacement Alejandro Da Silva, profited from another unselfish pass by Julio Dos Santos to put the cherry on top.

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Olimpia vs Danubio
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
(2-1) 2-1 – Aranda, De León (0.g.); Carboni
Agg: 2-1

Fortune smiled on El Decano as their progression was down to a deflected own goal. Things started badly when the Uruguayans took the lead despite having only arrived that day via bus due to complications with their connecting flight and departure from Montevideo.

But Eduardo Aranda turned the hero equalising with a wonderful goal after 42 minutes, and the victory was completed just before halftime when Salegueiro’s deflected cross struck Gabriel de León’s back and flew into the net.

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Cobreloa vs Tacuary
Estadio Municipal de Calama
(1-0) 2-2 – Canío, Pol; Cardozo, Suarez (o.g.)
Agg: 3-2

An end-to-end game saw Tacuary go two goals down before bouncing back and almost snatching a third. It was the second time in three games that the Paraguayans scored twice in a match having previously gone 15 contests without managing more than a single goal.

The comeback was started by Ramón Cardozo who now has two goals in as many games, he was too strong for the defender on reception of Acosta Rojas’ pass and then was too clever as he beat his man, cut inside, and fired low under the goalkeeper. It was completed by a comic own goal, Cristian Suarez seemed to be trying to duck out of the way of the corner only for the ball to strike him and creep into his own net.

By Ralph Hannah

Week Two Wrap: Clásico a bore draw as Guaraní consolidate top spot

There were no goals in the clásico and little chances either end as once again Diego Centurión of Guaraní grabbed the headlines scoring two more goals to take his tally to four for the season and put his team at the summit. Here is a round-up of the main games.

Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
(0-0) 0-0

A strange clásico amidst the backdrop of black and white as the away team Cerro Porteño had only been offered 30 tickets which were refused by the azulgrana board. There were no goals to speak of and little incident in a game that probably came too early in the season and too soon after the recent clash, these two ended up cancelling each other out. Cerro will be more pleased with a point, they were after all the visiting side and played the last 15 minutes with ten men as Fidencio Oviedo was sent off for a second bookable offence.

Fabbro gets the better of Candia – Photo: D10.com.py

El Ciclón were definitely the best team in the first half, under siege from the boisterous home fans but putting Olimpia under the cosh on the pitch, Jonathan Fabbro was excellent and unlocked the black and white defence several times with some excellent passes. The strategy was to get the ball behind the defence to Rodrigo López or Jorge Rojas as much as possible, it worked but the players were unable to capitalise. In the second half El Decano improved, they stopped giving the ball away as cheaply and began to gain territory although they were mostly limited to long shots or set pieces. Any chance of Cerro Porteño nicking a goal ended with Oviedo’s sending off and they sat back as the Benitez’s (Pedro and Cesár) along with Luis Cardozo repelled everything that came their way.

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Tacuary vs Libertad
Estadio Roberto Bettega
(0-0) 1-1 – Ramón Cardozo (pen) 88′, José Ariel Nuñez 75′

A frustrating Friday night for the Libertad fans who saw their team work so hard to break the deadlock before handing the draw to their opponents. More to the point it was 17-year-old substitute Maurito Caballero who was at fault, needlessly sticking his arm up in the box which gave away the penalty. Ramon ‘Tacuarita’ Cardozo announced his return to Paraguayan football with a coolly taken spot kick.

Before that Libertad had deservedly taken the lead through José Ariel Nuñez, set up by Pablo Velázquez for the second week running. In fact it was Caballero who started the move heading back a poor clearance into the ‘mixer’ and Velázquez cushioned a header into the path of Nuñez, the striker chested the ball down and volleyed home in style. The draw keeps Tacuary floating above the relegation zone  and on four points with a host of sides including Libertad.

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Other results: Guaraní go top of the league as the only team with a 100% record, it was that man Diego Centurión on fire with two goals in the 3-1 victory. On Sunday Sol and Rubio Ñu played out a 1-1 draw while Nacional and Luque couldn’t find the net in the Arsenio Erico. As predicted in the preview the winners of Carapeguá vs Cerro de Franco was decided by their respective goalscorers Jorge Ayala and Rogerio Leichtweis. The latter scored twice in the 2-1 away win with his adversary getting the consolation for Carapeguá who are yet to win in their new stadium.

The team from Alto Parana are the only azulgrana to record a victory thus far – Photo: D10.com.py

Bad Odours: The Cerro Porteño players were forced to sit outside the changing rooms before the game and during halftime due to an unusual smell. Olimpia said it was the fresh paint used just before the game, personally sounds like …

Fossati rumbled: Jorge Fossati was spotted communicating with his assistant from the stands by the TV broadcaster just after kick off, although he wasn’t rumbled by the referee until well into the second half. Fossati’s assistant was sent to join him in the stands.

Team of the Week:  Carlos Servín (Tacuary); Gustavo Gimenez (Tacuary), Pedro Benítez (Cerro Porteño), Enrique Meza (Olimpia), Marcos Miers (Nacional); Sergio Escalante (Sol de América), Carlos Paredes (Olimpia), Jonathan Fabbro (Cerro Porteño), Iván Gonzalez Ferreira (Guaraní); Diego Centurión (Guaraní), Rogerio Leichtweis (Cerro de Franco)

Player of the Week: Diego Centurión was unlucky to miss out last week but the former Roma trainee who nearly saw his career ended by injury (before Tacuary last year he was a street vendor while playing part time for Atlético Caaguazú) is now showing his true talent. A strong header and cute left foot curler doubled his goal tally and he is currently the topscorer in the league with four in two games.

Centurión was plucked from obscurity – Photo: D10.com.py

Goal of the Week:  Not many to choose from but it is Diego Centurion’s second of the game (you can find it in the link below) – a lovely team move started by Palau who found Ocampo, the Argentine exchanged passes with Mendoza before feeding the ball to Centurion who curled in a first time effort with his left foot.

Stat of the Week: 3  - is the magic number for Guaraní, the side had gone 19 games since they last notched up a treble in a game

ALL THE GOALS

By Ralph Hannah

Copa Sudamericana 2012: Olimpia and Tacuary unable to find the net

It was a mixed night for the Paraguayan sides who both failed to score, the difference being Olimpia earned a credible draw in Montevideo while Tacuary slumped to a 1-0 loss at home. The likelihood that the latter will progress to the next round is very low considering they will be playing in Calama at 2600 metres altitude. Olimpia on the otherhand can be pleased with a solid result, riding their luck at times, and will expect to overcome Danubio in Asunción.

Danubio vs Olimpia
Estadio Luis Franzini
(0-0) 0-0

Danubio nor Olimpia couldn’t warm up the crowd with a goal – Photo: D10.com.py

Gregorio Perez got his second spell at Olimpia underway with a decent draw in Montevideo against Danubio that puts them in the driving seat for the return leg. The Uruguayans had the better chances, hitting the woodwork three times, and the best player on the pitch was undoubtedly 21-year-old Leonardo Melazzi who looked the most likely source of a goal. For most of the game El Decano were restricted to shots from distance, Richard Ortiz and Maxi Biancucchi both forcing saves, but their best chance came with nine minutes to go. Substitute Arnaldo Castorino broke at pace and fed the ball through to Julio Santa Cruz but Roque’s younger brother was unable to make the difference as his shot was saved by the outstretched leg of goalkeeper Goicoechea.

Olimpia XI: Martín Silva; Alfredo Rojas, Julio César Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Sebastián Ariosa; Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Humberto Paredes, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz; Maximiliano Biancucchi, Julio Santa Cruz

Subs: Miguel Amado for Fabio Caballero, Arnaldo Castorino for Maxi Biancucchi, Osvaldo Hobecker for Eduardo Aranda

Return Leg: 07/08/2012, 20.45 (01.45 BST) in Para Uno, Asunción

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Tacuary vs Cobreloa
Estadio Roberto Bettega, Asunción
(0-0) 0-1 – Patricio Troncoso

The Chileans got the better of Tacuary – Photo: EFE

As expected a defensive-minded affair between two sides looking to capitalise on a mistake by the other side, Tacuary were strong in defence for the most part and as ever their dependable goalkeeper Carlos Servín made some excellent saves when called upon. However, even he couldn’t stop Patricio Troncoso’s ferocious shot which broke the deadlock and looks certain to have earned the Chileans passage into the next round.

Tacuary XI: Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Ronald Huth, Diego Viera, Gregor Aguayo; Reinaldo Ocampo, Gustavo Noguera, Marcos Gimenez, Marcos Acosta Rojas, Raúl Román; Jorge Ortega

Subs: Juan Nuñez for Gregor Aguayo, Nicolas Martinez for Gustavo Noguera, Fabian Caballero for Raúl Román

Return Leg: 07/08/2012, 18.15 (23.15 BST) in Estadio Municipal de Calama, Calama

By Ralph Hannah

Copa Sudamericana 2012: Tacuary vs Cobreloa preview

Tacuary vs Cobreloa
Estadio Roberto Bettega
24/07/2012, 20.30 (01:30 BST)

The team that finished bottom of the Apertura table are in continental action for the first time since 2007 and will be desperate to try and spring a surprise against their Chilean opponents in the first leg of their first round tie. Tacuary have brought back striker Ramon Cardozo after a successful stint in Perú but it is their defence that will be key. Remember the preview to the other game tonight involving Olimpia is here. 

Tacuary look forward to their first continental game in 5 years – Photo: Futgol3D.radio970am.com.py

Gonzalo Ocampo usually prefers a 4-5-1 formation but is expected to go for a 4-4-2 to partner Cardozo with Jorge Ortega, also on the right-hand side of midfielder is Reinaldo Ocampo a talented winger. The defence’s key component is Carlos Servín, an outstanding young goalkeeper, and also includes ex-Liverpool central defender Ronald Huth. Expect Tacuary to be organised and attempt to score via a set piece or on the counter attack.

Cobreloa were unable to register all of their players in time for this game but still come with a strong team and with ex-Cerro Porteño, Nacional & Libertad coach Javier Torrente at the helm, Tacuary’s defensive style will pose no surprises. My gut feeling says this will be a fairly stale affair with Torrente happy to set his team up defensively to avoid getting hit on the break and waiting for the return leg in Calama where

Tacuary XI (probable): Carlos Servín; Gustavo Gimenez, Ronald Huth, Diego Viera, Gregor Aguayo; Reinaldo Ocampo, Juan Nuñez, Edgar Fernandez, Marcos Acosta Rojas; Jorge Ortega, Ramón Cardozo

Prediction: 0-0 or 1-1

Selected Odds: Tacuary win 2.44, Draw 3.25, Cobreloa win 3.35, 1-1 scoreline 7.0, Under 2.5 goals 1.72

Best Bet: I think Unders seems a pretty safe bet in this one

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Stats and Trivia

Tacuary’s first game against Chilean opposition

Tacuary last 5 home (All Competitions)

Pld 5 W 0 D 4 L 1 GF 3 GA 6

Tacuary results in Continental Competitions

Tacuary 1-1 Defensor Sporting – Copa Sudamericana 2007

Defensor Sporting 3-0 Tacuary – Copa Sudamericana 2007

Tacuary 2-2 Palmeiras – Copa Libertadores 2005

Palmeiras 2-0 Tacuary – Copa Libertadores 2005

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By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at the time of writing via Betfair