Apertura 2012: Week 5 Preview

Another Friday start with Guaraní  hosting Tacuary. The big boys Olimpia and Cerro play on separate days (them’s the rules) specifically Saturday and Sunday respectively, the round finishes off with Luque trying to overhaul Cerro PF in the promedio standings. Remember that all games have predictions and the odds mentioned on selected games are via Betfair.

Guaraní vs Tacuary
Estadio Rogelio Livieres a.k.a Dos Bocas
02/03/2012, 19.00
Prediction: 1-0

Guaraní's Dos Bocas kicks off Week 5

Guaraní should welcome back key players in Luis Cabral and Nelson Romero back from suspension and injury respectively. The fight back from two goals down in the last game has given Guaraní a much needed confidence boost and should mean the supporters are with them from the onset. Tacuary have relied heavily on goalkeeper Carlos Servín to earn them two consecutive draws but look like a team withou ideas going forward and barring another super-human display in goal this should be a home win.

SELECTED ODDS: Guaraní win 1.9, Draw 3.1, Tacuary win 4.1; 1-0 scoreline 6.2

BEST BET: Home win looks good value considering the strength of the opposition

Sol de América vs Libertad
Estadio Luis Giagni
03/03/2012, 17.15
Prediction: 0-1

Libertad have now slipped up in their last two games (both draws) while Sol lost their 100% record last weekend losing to Nacional. Libertad should welcome back José Ariel Nuñez upfront but central defenders Joe Bizera and Gustavo Gomez are still injured, this could leave them exposed against Sol de América’s in form striker José Ortigoza. Libertad are by far the stronger side on paper so should win but they have seemed a bit distracted in the league recently with their main focus the Copa Libertadores, the away win is by no means a banker.

SELECTED ODDS: Market yet to develop

BEST BET: A hard one to call, safest call is Libertad (Draw No Bet)

Olimpia vs Nacional
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
03/03/2012, 19.45
Prediction: 1-0

Marín last week's hero Photo: http://www.D10.com.py

Olimpia have been gritting their teeth and grinding out victories recently, they should have a full strength squad and fully rested with only goalkeeper Martin Silva involved in the midweek internationals. Nacional on the other hand have a Copa Libertadores game next week and one the week after which means they will rotate some players for Saturday’s game which could upset their recent winning form. All the signs point to a home win, albeit a hard fought one.

SELECTED ODDS: Olimpia win 1.99, Draw 3.45, Nacional win 4.2; 1-0 scoreline 7.4, Under 2.5 goals 1.69

BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals is worse value than I expected so worth plumping for the home win

Sportivo Carapeguá vs Independiente
Estadio Juan Canuto Pettengill
04/03/2012, 17.30
Prediction: 1-1

A game on neutral ground with both sides ‘homeless’ and winless at the moment with just one point each after four games. Carapeguá welcome new coach Mario Jacquet having parted ways with Eradio Espinoza but with little time to prepare his side this could be Independiente’s chance to record a maiden victory. They played well against Olimpia but were torn apart by Cerro Porteño, if they can re-focus they could grab all three points.

Cerro Porteño vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio General Pablo Rojas a.k.a La Olla
04/03/2012, 18.30
Prediction: 3-0

La Olla is the venue for Saturday's game

Cerro Porteño were excellent in their last game winning 4-1 and with team harmony restored and players performing to the best of their abilities they should beat Rubio Ñu who are starting to go off the boil following a strong start. Rubio Ñu are good going forward and when in possession but the speed of Cerro on the counter attack and the quality of the roving Uruguayan full backs (Matias Corujo and Walter Lopez) will cause problems when they lose the ball. Definitely a home win.

SELECTED ODDS: Cerro Porteño win 1.55, Draw 4.4, Rubio Ñu win 7; 3-0 scoreline 15, Over 2.5 goals 1.91

BEST BET: A home win is about right and just a bit better value than Overs which is a bit short

Luque vs Cerro PF
Estadio Feliciano Caceres
04/03/2012, 19.00
Prediction: 1-0

Luque's stadium

The win by Cerro PF last week plunged Luque into the relegation zone making this a classic ‘6-pointer’ – so far Cerro PF have been organised defensively and Luque have only conceded two goals themselves so expect a tight game. If anything Luque, with home advantage should win this one they have been relatively unlucky to draw the last two games having dominated.

TV GAMES: As usual the ‘big four’ are on TV, Guaraní, Libertad, Olimpia and Cerro Porteño’s games can be seen on local TV and online just check the Where to Watch section

By Ralph Hannah

7 responses to “Apertura 2012: Week 5 Preview

  1. Voy a regalar una remera del albirro (trucha pero bueno no soy un futbolista profesional) a la persona que acierta más resultados en esta fecha…

    Hagan sus pronósticos abajo en los comentarios…

    The person who gets the most scores right will win a Paraguay shirt (fake but better than nothing)…

    Make your predictions in the comments section below…

  2. Guaraní 0 Tacuary 0

    SATURDAY

    Sol 1 Libertad 2
    Olimpia 1 Nacional 0

    SUNDAY

    Carapeguá 0 Independiente 1 – ITAGUA
    Cerro Porteño 3 Rubio Ñu 1
    Luque 2 Cerro PF 2

  3. Guaraní 1 Tacuary 2
    Sol de América 0 Libertad 2
    Olimpia 1 Nacional 1
    Cerro Porteño 1 Rubio Ñu 2
    Luque 0 Cerro PF2

    • Guaraní 1 Tacuary 2
      Sol de América 0 Libertad 2
      Olimpia 1 Nacional 1
      Cerro Porteño 1 Rubio Ñu 2
      Luque 0 Cerro PF2
      Sportivo Carapeguá 0 Independiente 1

  4. Guarani 1 – Tacuary 1.. (Tacuary defense is very hard to beat and they can beat you in the very last minute).

    Sol de America 0 – 1 Libertad (Agree with you)

    Sp. Carapegua 1 – 0 Independiente (Strong feeling about this jajaja)

    Cerro Porteño 2 – 0 Rubio Ñu (Cerro has grown a lot since the first match, but i think 3 goals are too much for a very strong team, Rubio Ñu)

    Sp Luqueño 2 – 1 Cerro PF (this one is going to be tight, Luqueño is playing very well, i think they will win this time)

  5. Nobody got a correct result but Marcelo picked five of the six winners so he wins the shirt! Marcelo can you follow me on Twitter @paraguayralph so I can send you a private message with my phone number or you can add me on facebook, my name is Ralph Hannah!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s