Another Friday start with Guaraní hosting Tacuary. The big boys Olimpia and Cerro play on separate days (them’s the rules) specifically Saturday and Sunday respectively, the round finishes off with Luque trying to overhaul Cerro PF in the promedio standings. Remember that all games have predictions and the odds mentioned on selected games are via Betfair.
Guaraní vs Tacuary
Estadio Rogelio Livieres a.k.a Dos Bocas
Guaraní should welcome back key players in Luis Cabral and Nelson Romero back from suspension and injury respectively. The fight back from two goals down in the last game has given Guaraní a much needed confidence boost and should mean the supporters are with them from the onset. Tacuary have relied heavily on goalkeeper Carlos Servín to earn them two consecutive draws but look like a team withou ideas going forward and barring another super-human display in goal this should be a home win.
SELECTED ODDS: Guaraní win 1.9, Draw 3.1, Tacuary win 4.1; 1-0 scoreline 6.2
BEST BET: Home win looks good value considering the strength of the opposition
Sol de América vs Libertad
Estadio Luis Giagni
Libertad have now slipped up in their last two games (both draws) while Sol lost their 100% record last weekend losing to Nacional. Libertad should welcome back José Ariel Nuñez upfront but central defenders Joe Bizera and Gustavo Gomez are still injured, this could leave them exposed against Sol de América’s in form striker José Ortigoza. Libertad are by far the stronger side on paper so should win but they have seemed a bit distracted in the league recently with their main focus the Copa Libertadores, the away win is by no means a banker.
SELECTED ODDS: Market yet to develop
BEST BET: A hard one to call, safest call is Libertad (Draw No Bet)
Olimpia vs Nacional
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
Olimpia have been gritting their teeth and grinding out victories recently, they should have a full strength squad and fully rested with only goalkeeper Martin Silva involved in the midweek internationals. Nacional on the other hand have a Copa Libertadores game next week and one the week after which means they will rotate some players for Saturday’s game which could upset their recent winning form. All the signs point to a home win, albeit a hard fought one.
SELECTED ODDS: Olimpia win 1.99, Draw 3.45, Nacional win 4.2; 1-0 scoreline 7.4, Under 2.5 goals 1.69
BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals is worse value than I expected so worth plumping for the home win
Sportivo Carapeguá vs Independiente
Estadio Juan Canuto Pettengill
A game on neutral ground with both sides ‘homeless’ and winless at the moment with just one point each after four games. Carapeguá welcome new coach Mario Jacquet having parted ways with Eradio Espinoza but with little time to prepare his side this could be Independiente’s chance to record a maiden victory. They played well against Olimpia but were torn apart by Cerro Porteño, if they can re-focus they could grab all three points.
Cerro Porteño vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio General Pablo Rojas a.k.a La Olla
Cerro Porteño were excellent in their last game winning 4-1 and with team harmony restored and players performing to the best of their abilities they should beat Rubio Ñu who are starting to go off the boil following a strong start. Rubio Ñu are good going forward and when in possession but the speed of Cerro on the counter attack and the quality of the roving Uruguayan full backs (Matias Corujo and Walter Lopez) will cause problems when they lose the ball. Definitely a home win.
SELECTED ODDS: Cerro Porteño win 1.55, Draw 4.4, Rubio Ñu win 7; 3-0 scoreline 15, Over 2.5 goals 1.91
BEST BET: A home win is about right and just a bit better value than Overs which is a bit short
Luque vs Cerro PF
Estadio Feliciano Caceres
The win by Cerro PF last week plunged Luque into the relegation zone making this a classic ‘6-pointer’ – so far Cerro PF have been organised defensively and Luque have only conceded two goals themselves so expect a tight game. If anything Luque, with home advantage should win this one they have been relatively unlucky to draw the last two games having dominated.
TV GAMES: As usual the ‘big four’ are on TV, Guaraní, Libertad, Olimpia and Cerro Porteño’s games can be seen on local TV and online just check the Where to Watch section
By Ralph Hannah