Paraguay Apertura 2012: Week 15 Preview

The penultimate round of games before the self-imposed mid-season break (to allow the Paraguayan national side three weeks of acclimatisation at altitude before World Cup Qualifier against Bolivia) sees

Guaraní vs Libertad
05/05/2012, 18.00
Estadio Rogerio Livieres a.k.a Dos Bocas
Prediction: 1-1

Guaraní preparing for the game – Photo: Prensa Club Guaraní

 

Guaraní welcome back Elvis Marecos but are missing some key players in Nelson Romero and Dario Ocampo (both injured) with the latter’s likely replacement Luis de la Cruz also suspended. Libertad, on a nine-game unbeaten run, are also likely to rest players after the gruelling trip to Mexico for the Copa Libertadores. Traditionally the games here have been low scoring and if either team does win it would be by a single goal, I’m sitting on the fence though.

Olimpia vs Rubio Ñu
05/05/2012, 18.15
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
Prediction: 2-1

Rubio Ñu train ahead of the game – Photo: Prensa Rubio Ñu

The league leaders are in a real state – last week’s 3-0 defeat was made worse when it emerged that Vladimir Marín, Adrián Romero and Sergio Orteman had broken curfew to go to a concert in a nightclub until 5am. Gerardo Pelusso is furious and has banished them to the reserves – Marín didn’t even show up this morning (Friday). It has obviously brought instability to the camp with the players unsure whether to support their teammates or the coach. For Rubio Ñu they have an added bonus, Olimpia’s lack of midfield options means they will have to play Osvaldo Hobecker (on-loan from the albiverde) thus paying $70,000 as part of a contractual clause. The away team will be happy to have Benfica’s Derlis Gonzalez back from the flu but ultimately their lack of form and defensive quality means they won’t be able to capitalise on their opponents misfortunes. Home win.

Selected Odds: Not at time of writing

Best Bet: The goings on at Olimpia shouldn’t affect them but makes the win a bit risky, look at Over 2.5 goals as these games have been high scoring recently

Sportivo Carapeguá vs Cerro PF
06/05/2012, 15.00
Estadio Juan Canuto Pettengill
Prediction: 0-0

Carapeguá have struggled recently to find goals they have just two in their last five and they have also gone seven games without a win. It seems that Mario Jacquet’s ‘honeymoon’ period is over and the team are lacking direction. Cerro de Franco are organised and have been managing to get goals recently which has brought relatively positive results (five points in four games) but they do suffer on their travels. Hard to separate these two relegation strugglers.

Sol de América vs Nacional

06/05/2012, 15.00
Estadio Luis Giagni
Prediction: 2-1

A tough one to call this, Sol looked good against Rubio Ñu and they have Enzo Prono in scoring form and José Ortigoza fully fit. On the other hand they haven’t enjoyed a win at home since February and were beaten easily by Nacional last time round. The visitors aren’t on great form themselves, a run of losses was ended with a win at Tacuary but last week they were outplayed at home by Guaraní only to rescue a draw. The return of Marcos Riveros and Ricardo Mazacotte is certainly a boost but with pretty poor form on the road something tells me Sol will squeeze a victory especially if they score first.

Selected Odds: Not at time of writing

Best Bet: A tight game, look at the Asian Handicap for value

Cerro Porteño vs Independiente
06/05/2012, 17.10
Estadio Gral. Pablo Rojas a.k.a La Olla
Prediction: 3-0

Jonathan Fabbro returns to starting line up – Photo: Prensa Club Cerro Porteño

Independiente are on a high having beaten Olimpia comfortably but the star man that day was Francisco Garcia who can’t play against Cerro Porteño, his parent club. There is also a question of style, Olimpia have always been a bit susceptible defensively when teams take the game to them whereas Cerro revel in it and are very dangerous on the break. The home team are missing Uruguayan full backs Matias Corujo (injured) and Walter López (suspended for five games, three of which are for spitting at Aranda in the clásico) forcing interim manager Hugo Caballero to opt for three central defenders. He has also confirmed the return of Jonathan Fabbro in what will be a very attacking line up. I think it is the right way to go as Independiente are weak at the back and will be overwhelmed by the azulgrana.

Selected Odds: Not at time of writing

Best Bet: Cerro to win by more than one goal

Luque vs Tacuary
06/05/2012, 18.00
Estadio Feliciano Caceres
Prediction: 1-0

Luque celebrated their 91st birthday this week but the owners have been criticised heavily by club idol Romerito and there are lots of divides off the pitch as the club battles relegation. On the pitch they have won just one game in their last five and at home the record is similar, winning just two in the last five. Carlos Kiese has looked to youth with a few starlets plucked from the table-topping U20s side, it will be interesting to see if he gambles with young Fulvio Chavez in midfield this weekend. Tacuary are in worse form than Luque and new manager Luis Cubilla has been unable to do anything so far losing all three full games he has been in charge of. Sorry Luis but don’t see your luck changing on Sunday.

By Ralph Hannah

All odds via Betfair and correct at the time of writing

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