Copa Sudamericana 2012: Danubio vs Olimpia preview

Danubio vs Olimpia
Estadio Luis Franzini
22/07/2012, 18:15 (23:15 BST)

Gregorio Perez’s first game in charge of Olimpia since replacing Gerardo Pelusso is in his native country against Danubio who he managed back in 2003. The 64-year-old will be hoping to improve Olimpia’s average record against Uruguayan sides (see stats section below) as he tries to emulate compatrito Gerardo Pelusso who got them to the last 16 in 2011. The preview to the other game involving Tacuary is here.

Daubio vs Olimpia – Photo: olimpia.com.py

Perez seems to have his starting XI for the game, going for a solid 4-4-2 formation. The new strike pairing of Fredy & Nestor Bareiro (no relation) isn’t considered with the former lacking match practice, instead Roque Santa Cruz’s younger brother Julio gets his big chance alongside Lionel Messi’s cousin Maxi Biancucchi. In midfield Fabio Caballero is back from injury and partners the experienced Paredes with Eduardo Aranda and Richard Ortiz capable of defending on the flanks. Alfredo Rojas is the only new signing that expected to make the starting line-up, he will play right back in place of Renzo Reveredo.

Gregorio Perez is in charge of Olimpia for the 2nd time – Photo: D10.com.py

Danubio are said to be a defensive and organised side which is shown by their recent 8th place finish in the Uruguayan Clausura where they scored 18 and conceded 18 in the 15 games. They only lost one game at home in that competition, winning three and drawing the remaining three. One would expect Olimpia to be slightly stronger but with this being an away match the Paraguayans will be content with a draw. I can’t see El Decano going all out to try and win this knowing that they have the advantage of the 2nd leg at home.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Alfredo Rojas, Julio César Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Sebastián Ariosa; Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Humberto Paredes, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz; Maximiliano Biancucchi, Julio Santa Cruz

Prediction: 1-1

Selected Odds: Danubio win 2.5, Draw 3,35, Olimpia win 3.5, 1-1 scoreline 6.6, Under 2.5 goals 1.65

Best Bet: A tough game to call as even the unders market doesn’t look particularly tempting value, considering that Olimpia conceded heavily in the Libertadores, maybe play around with the Asian Handicap to look for value with Danubio +0.5 possibly offering value.

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia vs Uruguayan opposition (Copa Sudamericana)

Pld 2 W 0 D 1 L 1 GF 1 GA 3 – 2010 Copa against Defensor Sporting

Olimpia vs Uruguayan opposition (Continental Competitions)

Pld 32 W 8 D 9 L 15 GF 41 GA 47

Olimpia last 5 away (Continental Competitions)

Pld 5 W 1 D 1 L 3 GF 7 GA 14

Defensor have lost three of their previous four games at home in the Copa Sudamericana, achieving just one draw

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Full Squad List

GK: Martín Silva, Victor Centurión

DEF: Renzo Revoredo, Alfredo Rojas, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa, Eugenio Montiel

MID: Eduardo Aranda, Carlos Humberto Paredes, Victor Matta, Osvaldo Hobecker, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz, Miguel Amado

ATT: Arnaldo Castorino, Nestor Bareiro, Maxi Biancucchi, Julio Santacruz

By Ralph Hannah

Author’s Note: All odds correct at the time of writing via Betfair

One response to “Copa Sudamericana 2012: Danubio vs Olimpia preview

  1. Pingback: Copa Sudamericana 2012: Tacuary vs Cobreloa preview | The Paraguay Football Blog

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