Olimpia vs Emelec
Estadio Manuel Ferreira a.k.a Para Uno
28/08/2012, 20:45 (01:45 BST)
Olimpia take on Emelec for the fifth time in under a year in the Copa Sudamericana 2nd round 1st leg in Asunción. The Paraguayans progressed when these two sides met at the same stage of last year’s competition although five of the starting XI from the 1st leg in 2011 have now moved on. Although El Decano looked comfortable against Danubio in the last round the Uruguayans were poor and undoubtedly Emelec will provide a stronger challenge. There will of coures, be a sense of revenge in the air as Emelec knocked Olimpia out of the Copa Libertadores group stages earlier in the year.
The probable Olimpia line-up is still unknown (see below) with Gregorio Pérez still trying to find the right blend of attacking and defensive players, he began his time with three cleansheets but they have conceded in their four games since including four goals in the last two games. With no foreign-player restrictions in the Copa Sudamericana the Uruguayan Sebastián Ariosa is expected to come in at left-back which offers more of an offensive threat down that side. Also Maxi Biancucchi is installed into the starting line-up probably at the expense of Arnaldo Castorino. The dangerman recently has been Juan Manuel Salguiero who usually plays just behind the strikers in a 4-3-1-2 formation. However, there is talk of him being dropped to allow Olimpia to play in a more traditional 4-4-2 with defensive players Miguel Amado and Alejandro Silva in the middle; Jorge Nuñez and Richard Ortiz would be on the flanks. That would help protect the full backs against Emelec’s electric wingers.
Emelec needed a last minute penalty to get through to this round and in general they have been scraping victories all season, currently second in the Ecuadorean league with a goal difference of just two. They have a strong forward line with ex-Boca Juniors Marcos Mondiani the creative force while compatrit Luciano Figueroa provides power. Enner Valencia is pure pace down the right hand side and in central defence they have Cristian Nasuti who was excellent for Libertad in the first half of the year.
It is likely to be a tight game, but the home advantage should be enough for Olimpia to come out on top.
Olimpia XI (probable 4-3-1-2): Martín Silva; Alejandro Silva, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa; Eduardo Aranda, Miguel Amado, Richart Ortiz; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Maxi Biancucchi, Fredy Bareiro
Olimpia XI (probable 4-4-2): Martín Silva, Richard Salinas, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa; Jorge Nuñez, Miguel Amado, Alejandro Silva, Richard Ortíz; Maxi Biancucchi, Nestor Bareiro
Selected Odds: Olimpia win 1.76, Draw 3.65, Emelec win 5.8, 1-0 scoreline 6.8, Over 2.5 goals 2.28
Best Bet: Despite the prediction above they BTTS (Both teams to score) bet at 2.12 might be safer than Over 2.5 goals, it is worth bearing in mind that 3 of the 4 previous meetings have gone over 2.5 in case you do fancy that
Stats and Trivia
Olimpia vs Emelec Head-to-Head
Pld 4 W 2 D 0 L 2 GF 6 GA 6
Olimpia last 5 home (Continental Competitions)
Pld 5 W 3 D 1 L 1 GF 9 GA 7
Olimpia knocked Emelec out of the 2011 Copa Sudamericana at this stage
Emelec beat Olimpia in the final group game of the 2012 Copa Libertadores to take their place in 2nd round
Full Squad List
GK: Martín Silva, Victor Centurión
DEF: Alfredo Rojas, Julio Cesar Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza, Sebastián Ariosa, Eugenio Montiel, Alejandro Silva, Richard Salinas
MID: Eduardo Aranda, Jorge Nuñez, Osvaldo Hobecker, Fabio Caballero, Richard Ortiz, Miguel Amado, Jorge Báez
ATT: Arnaldo Castorino, Nestor Bareiro, Julio Santacruz, Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro, Maxi Biancucchi
By Ralph Hannah
Author’s Note: All odds correct at the time of writing via Betfair