Tacuary take on Olimpia on Saturday while the rest of the round’s games take place on a Super Sunday, we’re expected warm temperatures this weekend which (in my opinion but no scientific fact) usually means tighter games with less goals. I’ve recently done my homework on average goal times which I’m sharing with you all this week.
Tacuary vs Olimpia (TV)
Olimpia are hoping to bounce back after their disappointing defeat to Emelec in midweek, Gergorio Perez has made several changes to that starting line up and looks to be going for an ultra offensive 4-2-1-3 formation with Biancucchi joining Castorino and Fredy Bareiro in attack. Tacuary have been dragged into the relegation zone following Carapeguá’s back-to-back wins and are 288 minutes without a goal and five games without a win. This could well be another defeat for the home side.
Olimpia XI (confirmed): Martín Silva; Alejandro Silva, Julio César Cáceres, Salustiano Candia, Enrique Meza; Eduardo Aranda, Richard Ortiz, Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Maxi Biancucchi, Arnaldo Castorino, Fredy Bareiro
Olimpia most likely to score: 31-45 mins or 76-90 mins
Tacuary most likely to score: 45-60 mins
SELECTED ODDS: Tacuary win 4.1; Draw 3.45, Olimpia win 1.65
BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals could be a good cover for the Olimpia win as this fixture has finished 0-0 in 3 out of last 6
Cerro de Franco vs Guaraní
Estadio Cerro de Franco
Guaraní have to travel to the east of the country following their loss to Millonarios and it could be a difficult game for them if the defeat weighs heavily on their mind. Cerro de Franco have been looking good at home (3 wins in last 5) and always feel they have a chance of scoring with Rogerio Leichtweis in the team. It was Leichtweis who got the winner in the previous meeting between the sides in Presidente Franco and he is part of a full strength XI. At the time of writing Guaraní hadn’t decided who would travel to the game, they have one training session on Saturday afternoon before confirming.
Cerro de Franco most likely to score: 31-45 or 76 to 90 mins
Guaraní most likely to score: 76-90 mins
Cerro de Franco XI (probable): Miguel López; Gustavo Velázquez, Nelson Figueredo,Fabián Balbuena; Cristian Ramírez , Reinaldo López, Óscar Benítez, Miguel Godoy, Arnaldo Recalde; Christian Andersen, Rogerio Leichtweis
SELECTED ODDS: Libertad win 1.51; Draw 3.9; Sol win 6.2
BEST BET: Both team to score
Luqueño vs Carapeguá
Estadio Feliciano Cáceres
Both sides were involved in midweek action with Luque drawing a thriller in Villa Elisa against Sol de América and Carapeguá recording their first ever victory in their new stadium against Libertad. Juan Arce was so impressed by that performance he will keep the same team to take on Luque with Ricardo ‘Tom’ Ortiz playing particularly well in the creative role recently. Luque took the lead in their previous game against Sol but were blown away in a five minute spell in the first half, they did have chances to win towards the end and look good going forward. They should be good enough for a win here.
Luque most likely to score: 61-75 mins
Carapeguá most likely to score: 31-45 mins
Carapeguá XI (probable): Fabiano Heves; Raúl Cáceres, Rubén Maldonado, Marcos Arce, Cristian Martínez; Esteban Ramírez, Diosnel Almirón, Rodrigo Soria; Ricardo Ortiz; Diego Benítez, Marco Prieto
BEST BET: Home win
Nacional vs Sol de América (TV)
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Nacional took the lead only to lose at home last weekend as they are yet to find a win in the Arsenio Erico in the Clausura. However, that stat is misleading as the two sides they’ve face in Barrio Obrero are the league’s top two Guaraní and Luque. They won three in a row at the end of the Apertura and I think they have what it takes to beat Sol in Sunday’s first televised match. It is worth noting that the left hand side is weakened with Marcos Miers (injured) and Marcos Melagrejo (suspended) and combined with Sol’s attacking potential that could spell goals for both sides. The away team are missing David Mendieta who is a creative force although the form players have been right midfielder Sergio Escalante and striker Diego Vázquez who both start having scored against Luque.
Nacional most likely to score: 31-45 or 61-75 mins
Sol most likely to score: 0-15 mins
Nacional XI (probable): Oscar Aguero; Ramón Coronel, Matías Perez, Raúl Piris, David Medoza; Carlos Ruiz Peralta, Marcos Riveros, César Cáceres Cañete, Silvio Torales; Rodrigo Teixeira, Javier Gonzalez
Sol XI (probable): Roberto Acosta; Roberto Bonet, Ricardo Martínez, Bruno Valdez, Diego Ciz; Sergio Escalante, Ángel Enciso, Marcos Duré, Carlos Recalde; Diego Vázquez, Lorenzo Frutos
BEST BET: Both teams to score
Independiente vs Cerro Porteño (TV)
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
Independiente won the corresponding fixture last season with an excellent display from Emanuel Biancucchi and their head-to-head with Cerro isn’t bad (Pld 6 W 2 D 1 L 3). Take into account Cerro’s trip to and from Venezuela and the likely changes (although no confirmation as yet) to the first team and you might be tempted to think Independiente can get something out of this game. Nevertheless I think the azulgrana will be good enough to eek out a result, Inde are on a poor run of form and have been unable to keep a cleansheet in the Clausura and pressure is mounting on their coach Carlos Jara Saguier to get them out of the rut or he could be replaced by his predecessor Alicio Solalinde. Narrow win to Cerro (who aren’t playing away, the game is at a neutral venue).
Independiente most likely to score: 61-75 mins
Cerro most likely to score: 76-90 mins
BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals
Libertad vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio Nicolas Leóz
Libertad are on a bad run of form, culminating in the defeat by Carapeguá on Wednesday which ended a run of four draws. Rubio Ñu picked up their first win in fifteen against Independiente but it was hardly convincing and Chiqui Arce has plenty of problems as he looks for some better results. Ruben Israel seems to have his defence and attack set but he is still finding the right balance in midfield (not easy for a side that was reliant on Topo Cáceres for so many years). The doubt is on the left wing (see below) and there is even a chance that Nestor Camacho plays to offer them more pace. Whatever the starting formation they are considerably stronger than Rubio Ñu on paper and they should win, it is unlikely to be a classic.
Libertad most likely to score: 61-75 mins
Rubio Ñu most likely to score: 76-90 mins
Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Jorge Moreira, Ismael Benegas, Joe Bizera, Miguel Samudio; Luis Cáceres, Sebastián Eguren, Sergio Aquino, Nelson Romero or Gustavo Cristaldo; José Ariel Núñez, Pablo Velázquez
BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals
By Ralph Hannah