Paraguay Clausura 2012: Title race fixtures

Just 6 games to go and the title race is wide open following Guaraní’s home defeat to Nacional on Sunday, although Cerro and Olimpia aren’t included in this post it is worth bearing in mind they are only two points further back from 3rd-placed Libertad so still have a faint glimmer of hope. Here is the run-in for the top three and a few thoughts on how it will go and who will lift the hotly-contested Clausura title. Appreciate comments below as to your thoughts on the 2012 Clausura winner!

The top 3 with six games to play

The kick off times/dates are never confirmed until a week before so for now these are just a simple home or away, (n) stands for neutral with some games likely to be played at the Defensores del Chaco.

GUARANI

vs Tacuary (A)

vs Cerro de Franco (H)

vs Olimpia (H)

Guaraní are top of the pile for now – Photo: Prensa Club Guaraní

vs Sol de América (A)

vs Carapeguá (H)

vs Rubio Ñu (A or N)

The Olimpia game stands out as the most difficult, instead of playing at the Defensores to maximise profits they will keep the game in Dos Bocas to have the sporting advantage. The other five games are all winnable – the final day of the season against Rubio Ñu could be interesting, last season they played at La Arboleda and Rubio Ñu blew them away within 30 minutes. Again the game might be played at a neutral venue if the albiverde decide to sell the rights to the game to somebody in Ciudad del Este or play at the Defensores. Overall I think Guaraní will take at least 12 points from these six games.

NACIONAL

vs Olimpia (H)

vs Sol de América (A)

vs Carapeguá (H)

Will Nacional’s fans celebrate a title win? – Photo: Prensa Club Nacional

vs Rubio Ñu (A)

vs Cerro Porteño (N)

vs Independiente (A)

A slightly tougher run-in considering they play Olimpia and Cerro Porteño, although the Academia have a great record against their Barrio Obrero neighbours so they could well nick a win especially if Cerro are out of the title race by then. The key game is really this weekend with Olimpia, if they lose that then even 15 points from the final five games might not be enough to catch Guaraní. Like their rivals they’ve decided to turn down the big money on offer by not selling tickets to Olimpia fans and hosting the game at the Arsenio Erico rather than go across Colón to Defensores del Chaco – Nacional mean business.  I think they can take around 13 points.

LIBERTAD

vs Carapeguá (H)

vs Rubio Ñu (A)

Another epic victory over Cerro will be needed – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

vs Cerro Porteño (N)

vs Independiente (A)

vs Cerro de Franco (A)

vs Luque (H)

The Libertad vs Cerro Porteño game will be an almighty clash, it always is, and the trip to Cerro de Franco could be key with Libertad usually travelling well. They have never played particularly well against Carapeguá and will be missing Nuñez for this game but assuming they have enough firepower in this weekend’s match they could well take 18 points, they have the quality.

===============

CONCLUSION

So Libertad for the title? It isn’t as outlandish as you would think, even though they sit four points behind right now. My gut tells me Guaraní will be able to hold out, but come the last day of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if these three teams are all in with a shout as Guaraní sit on 45 points, Nacional and Libertad on 44 points.

What are your thoughts?

By Ralph Hannah

5 responses to “Paraguay Clausura 2012: Title race fixtures

  1. No offense, I know you’re a big Cerro Porteño supporter but Cerro will be 2 points away from Libertad IF the beat Sol de América first (pending match)

    Score stays:

    Guarani 33
    Nacional 32
    Libertad 29
    Olimpia 27
    Cerro Porteño 24 (1 pending game against Sol de América)
    Sportivo Luqueño 23
    Cerro Porteño PF 21
    Carapeguá 19
    Sol de América 18 (1 pending game against Cerro Porteño)
    Tacuary 12
    Rubio Ñu 11
    Independiente CG 7

    • It’s always hard to predict a winning team 6 weeks ahead but let’s play with statistics a little. It’s a mistake to define a team as “strong” or “weak” but based on their score this season let’s take a look at each candidate’s race fixture:

      Let’s punctuate each rival’s difficulty to defeat based on their current score. For example, Guaraní is 33 points difficult if we are to play against them. So,

      Guaraní
      —————
      Tacuary (12p)
      Cerro Porteño PF (21p)
      Olimpia (27p)
      Sol de América (18p)
      Carapegua (19p)
      Rubio Ñu (11p)

      Difficulty level: 12+21+27+18+19+11=108p

      Nacional
      —————-
      Olimpia (27p)
      Sol de América (18p)
      Carapeguá (19p)
      Rubio Ñu (11p)
      Cerro Porteño (24p)
      Independiente (7p)

      Difficulty level: 27+18+19+11+24+7=106p

      Libertad
      —————-
      Carapeguá (19p)
      Rubio Ñu (11p)
      Cerro Porteño (24p)
      Independiente (7p)
      Cerro de Franco (21p)
      Luque (23p)

      Difficulty level: 19+11+24+7+21+23=105p

      Olimpia
      ——————
      Nacional (32p)
      Tacuary (12p)
      Guarani (33p)
      Cerro Porteño PF (21p)
      Sol de América (18p)
      Carapegua (19p)

      Difficulty level: 32+12+33+21+18+19=135 (ouch!)

      Cerro Porteño
      ——————–
      Sol de América (18p)
      Carapegua (19p)
      vs Rubio Ñu (11p)
      Cerro Porteño PF (21p)
      Independiente (7p)
      Libertad (29p)
      Tacuary (12p)

      Difficulty level: 18+19+11+21+7+29+12=117

      So, bottom line, Libertad for the win?

  2. Nice – I like that formula. I do think Libertad have a good chance but the differences we are playing with are very small (105 pts vs 108 pts) and Guarani still have the four point advantage over Libertad.

    Anybody else with any ideas?

  3. I think guarani chokes under all this pressure and gets 5 points (max) for the remaining of the season. Cerro and Olimpia make a run but la academia somehow pulls it through at the end.

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