Apertura 2013 Week 12: Libertad vs Guaraní and Olimpia vs Luque previews

Libertad vs Guaraní
Nicolas Leóz, Asunción
05/05/2013; 16:00 (21:00 BST)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

Always a spicy encounter between Asunción’s most successful clubs outside of the big two – in fact this could be considered a clásico such is the rivalry. The opening game was a 1-1 draw, Libertad hitting back after a lighting quick start by Guaraní. It increased the Gumarelo’s unbeaten streak in this fixture to nine games.

Guarani scored early last time but couldn't hold on for win - Photo: Prensa Club Guaraní

Guarani scored early last time but couldn’t hold on for win – Photo: Prensa Club Guaraní

There was a definite slump by Libertad that cost them a place in the knockout phase of the Copa Libertadores, a failure by their standards, and has made the league title difficult. Having said that they are unbeaten in 8 league games, conceding just four goals (three of those were to Sol de América). The last two games have been wins to nil and there is a feeling that the defending champions are back to their title-winning best. Israel is likely to name the same group of players that beat Luque in midweek.

Libertad beat Luque in midweek - Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

Libertad beat Luque in midweek – Photo: Prensa Club Libertad

Guaraní have a terrible case of inconsistency that has blighted them for over six months, the last time they won two games back-to-back was in November last year. They haven’t won away in the previous three matches and you have to go back almost a year to Libertad’s previous home defeat in the league (Sol de América on 12/05/2012). Diego Alonso is set to make changes with Sergio Orteman and Dante López returning to the side, there is blow as Dario Ocampo is injured but his replacement Ivan Gonzalez Ferreira also has the ability to unbalance the rival defence.

Prediction: 2-1

Best Bet: Home win for me today with the Guma starting to purr again

Libertad XI (probable): Rodrigo Muñoz; Aldo Olmedo, Gustavo Gomez, Ismael Benegas, Miguel Samudio; Nelson Romero, Pablo Guiñazú, Sergio Aquino, Jorge Gonzalez; José Ariel Nuñez, Pablo Velazquez

Guarani XI (probable): Pablo Aurrecochea, Eduardo Filippini, Julio César Cáceres, Miguel Paniagua, Edgar Aranda, Juan Aguilar, Marcelo Palau, Sergio Orteman, Ivan González Ferreira, Rodrigo Teixeira, Dante López

There is a live market of this game available on Betfair

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Olimpia vs Luque
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
05/05/2013; 18:20 (23:20 BST)
TV: Unicanal (Paraguay)

Olimpia have a chance to get the second round of games off to the best possible start with a fixture against bottom-placed Luque who were hit with a 30-day stadium ban following Wednesday’s riots. The violence started after a 3-0 defeat against Libertad, yet another game in which the auriazul have failed to score, they have just 3 goals all year.

Photo: Club Olimpia

Photo: Club Olimpia

Ever Almeida has the Copa Libertadores to consider and has to manage his players carefully, it is important to give some players rest but he also doesn’t want people short of match practice. Almeida seems to believe in the latter so he makes just one forced change, an injury to Julio Manzur means the Colombian youngster Yair Ibarguen is in line for a call up. The Salgueiro-Bareiro duo continues up front which is a shame for Arnaldo Castorino who scored twice in the previous league match to Sol de América

Terrible scenes in Luque on Wednesday - Photo: D10.com.py

Terrible scenes in Luque on Wednesday – Photo: D10.com.py

Luque are in turmoil and things won’t be easy today but they can draw strength from the fact Olimpia have lost their previous three games and their recent record against El Decano is decent, two wins and just one defeat in the last four meetings. With so much talk about the violence I’ve been unable to find infomation on the Luque line up but expect changes from the XI that were beaten so easily by Libertad, goalkeeper Ever Caballero is suspended having been sent off in that encounter.

Prediction: 3-1

Best Bet: Olimpia win is likely to be short but Over 2.5 goals could be better way to go with so many of Olimpia’s recent games going over.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Salustiano Candia, Herminio Miranda, Yair Ibarguen; Aquilino Giménez, Jorge Báez, Richard Ortiz, Eduardo Aranda, Sebastián Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro

There is a live market of this game available on Betfair

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Non-Televised games…

Cerro de Franco vs Rubio Ñu
Estadio Presidente Franco
05/05/2013; 15:00 (20:00 BST)
Prediction: 1-1

Deportivo Capiatá vs General Díaz
Estadio Capiatá
05/05/2013; 15:30 (20:30 BST)
Prediction: 0-1

For a list of my ‘Best Bets’ for all Week 12’s games, visit Free Bets Sport for my preview

By Ralph Hannah

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