Copa Libertadores Final 2013: Atletico Mineiro vs Olimpia preview

Atletico Mineiro vs Olimpia
Mineirao, Belo Horizonte
Final 2nd Leg, Olimpia lead 2-0 on aggregate
24/07/2013; 20:50 (01:50 BST)
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK); Telefuturo (Paraguay)

It has been a real battle for Olimpia this year but incredibly they are now on the verge of their fourth Copa Libertadores triumph against a team packed full of superstars. On the financial side there is a real gulf in spending, Atletico Mineiro can afford to pay Ronaldinho a reported 450,000 dollars a month – earlier in the year Ever Almeida dug into his own pocket and stumped up 10,000 dollars so the club could afford to travel to an away game in this competition. On the playing staff Carlos Humberto Paredes hasn’t asked for his wages, just enough to pay for his kid’s tuition fees. This Paraguayan side are full of resolve and have fought against the odds to get this far.

The King wants his 4th, will he get it? - Photo: abc.com.py

The King wants his 4th, will he get it? – Photo: abc.com.py

Obviously Almeida isn’t going to be quite as positive as he was at home, but he isn’t a fan of parking the bus either. Expect three at the back and the Salguiero-Bareiro double act to be deployed up front. The probable change from the first leg is the apperance of Ricardo Mazacotte at right wing-back with Alejandro Silva moving to a central role replacing Matias Gimenez. That in theory will make Olimpia a bit more defense-minded and once again there will be big pressure on Eduardo Aranda and Wilson Pittoni to keep things tight in the middle.

Wilson Pittoni celebrates what could be a decisive goal in 1st leg - Photo: abc.com.py

Wilson Pittoni celebrates what could be a decisive goal in 1st leg – Photo: abc.com.py

Atletico Mineiro have lost both full backs to suspension – Marcos Rocha and Richarlyson – but they welcome back Bernard from the sin bin which is going to be a huge boost for the Galo creatively. Also, as Tim Vickery put it in his BBC column, Ronaldinho can’t play as badly as he did in the first leg. They’ve been a danger at home all year winning every game but one (a 1-1 draw with Tijuana) though the good news for Olimpia is that the Brazilians have only managed one cleansheet and they certainly looked shaky in defence last week.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Julio Manzur, Herminio Miranda, Salustiano Candia; Ricardo Mazacotte, Nelson Benítez; Wilson Pittoni, Eduardo Aranda, Alejandro Silva; Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro

Atletico Mineiro XI (possible):  Victor; Michel, Rever, Leonardo Silva, Junior Cesar, Josué, Pierre, Ronaldinho, Guilherme, Diego Tardelli, Jô

Prediction: 1-1

Selected Odds: Atletico Mineiro win 1.44, Draw 4.2, Olimpia win 9.2, 1-1 draw 10.0, BTTS 2.12

Best Bet: I like BTTS in this game with Atletico sure to get a goal at home and likely to expose themselves as they search for  a second, Olimpia will look to hit them on the counter.

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia in Asunción (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 220 W 114 D 59 L 47 GF 357 GA 220

Head-to-Head vs Atletico Mineiro (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 7 W 2 D 3 L 2 GF 5 GA 5

NB: The 2-2 draw in Asuncion in 1972 saw 5 Mineiro players sent off so points awarded to Olimpia

Olimpia Finals away (Copa Libertadores)

Pld 6 W 1 D 2 L 3 GF 2 GA 7

Olimpia vs Brazilian (opposition) – For full article (in Spanish) click here

Olimpia vs Brazilian opposition - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia vs Brazilian opposition – Photo: D10.com.py

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Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

Copa Libertadores Final 2013: Olimpia win by two and have one hand on trophy

Olimpia vs Atletico Mineiro
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
(1-0) 2-0 – Alejandro Silva, Wilson Pittoni

Job done. Olimpia won at home and didn’t concede an away goal. In a surprisingly open game with Mineiro seemingly unable to cover Olimpia’s midfield three (which became four when Salguiero dropped deep) there were plenty of chances and it was Alejandro Silva who broke the deadlock with a superbly taken goal. The wing-back ran into the space available in the centre of the pitch and despite having cut onto his weaker left-foot he opted to shoot rather than pass and drilled a low effort off the post and into the net, not bad for a former Pizza Delivery Boy.

Mineiro had their chances but were thwarted constantly by a monstruous Martin Silva (Spanish speakers can listen to his pre-match tunnel speech here), the Uruguayan goalkeeper was prboably man of the match and undoubtedly the reason Olimpia kept their 4th cleansheet in the previous 6 games in the competition. Even the great Ronaldinho was unable to weave his magic, marked out the game by Eduardo Aranda, and he was left fuming on the bench after being hauled off on 65 minutes by Cuca.

Ronaldinho tries to burn a hole in the back of Cuca's head having been subbed off - Photo: Reuters

Ronaldinho tries to burn a hole in the back of Cuca’s head having been subbed off – Photo: Reuters

Just as it seemed Almeida had settled for a 1-0 win (taking off Salgueiro for Carlos Paredes) they doubled the lead in stoppage time. Another substitute, Enzo Prono, won a freekick on the edge of the box and Wilson Pittoni took charge. His delicate chip over the wall was lacking power but so accurate that it left the goalkeeper and his defender in no-man’s land, the latter blocking the former and both watching the ball sail into the roof of the net. Almeida stood on the touchline arms aloft with that satisfaction of knowing they had made themselves firm favourite to win their fourth Copa Libertdaores trophy.

By Ralph Hannah

Copa Libertadores 2013 Final: Olimpia vs Atletico Mineiro preview

Olimpia vs Atletico Mineiro
Defensores del Chaco, Asuncion
Final 1st Leg
17/07/2013; 20:50 (01:50 BST)
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK); Telefuturo (Paraguay)

In a repeat of the 1992 Copa CONMEBOL Final, Olimpia meet Atletico Mineiro in the first of the two biggest games on the continent. The Paraguayans have been in the final six times before but for Mineiro this is their debut at this level of the competition. Home advantage has been of vital importance this year, Olimpia have won 6 out of 7 home games (the only points dropped in a draw against arguably the weakest side they faced, Deportivo Lara of Venezuela). As with every game in the knockout stages they will be in front of a sell out crowd of over 30,000 and the team will be welcomed by a huge mosaic. To read about how Olimpia reached the final click here. 

Photo - Club Olimpia Oficial

Photo – Club Olimpia Oficial

In terms of team news there is no fresh injury worries and Juan Manuel Salgueiro has completed his suspension that kept him out of the second leg against Santa Fe. The team is expected to line up in a 3-5-2 which is more a 3-5-1-1 as Salgueiro will look to drop behind Fredy Bareiro and dictate play. At the back goalkeeper Martin Silva and central defenders Herminio Miranda and Salustiano Candia keep up their record of having started every game so far this tournament. Also important will be the roles of the wing backs Ricardo Mazacotte and Nelson Benitez, both are probably slightly more defensive than offensive and should allow for Aranda and Pittoni to support attacks from central midfield. The only selection dilemma is if Matias Gimenez or Alejandro Silva plays as the most attacking of the central midfield trio – Silva’s raw pace could be the deciding factor.

Demand for tickets has been huge! - Photo: Pasion Libertadores

Demand for tickets has been huge! – Photo: Pasion Libertadores

Atletico Mineiro trained in Luque on the eve of the game in front of a dedicated crowd and have just one key absentee, the talented youngster Bernard picked up a silly yellow card in the semi-final and has to sit out this game. There is still plenty of talent though, Ronaldinho, Jô and Diego Tardelli will all be on the field of play looking to score a vital away goal. Another former European Star, Gilberto Silva, returns to the bench following his semi final appearance with captain Rever back from suspension.

Ronaldinho in Luque, who'd have thought it! - Photo: Club Sportivo Luqueño

Ronaldinho in Luque, who’d have thought it! – Photo: Club Sportivo Luqueño

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Julio Manzur, Herminio Miranda, Salustiano Candia; Ricardo Mazacotte, Nelson Benítez; Wilson Pittoni, Eduardo Aranda, Alejandro Silva; Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro

Atletico Mineiro XI (possible):  Victor; Marcos Rocha, Rever, Leonardo Silva, Richardlyson, Josué, Pierre, Ronaldinho, Guilherme, Diego Tardelli, Jô

Prediction: 2-1

Selected Odds: Olimpia win 2.84, Draw 3.9, Mineiro win 2.86, 2-1 win 12.0, Over 2.5 goals 2.5

Best Bet: Think the Olimpia win is way overpriced considering their record at home this year, goals aren’t that common in Libertadores first leg finals which is why I haven’t plumped for overs despite Olimpia’s strong scoring record in Asuncion

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia in Asunción (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 219 W 113 D 59 L 47 GF 355 GA 220

Head-to-Head vs Atletico Mineiro (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 6 W 1 D 3 L 2 GF 3 GA 5

NB: The 2-2 draw in Asuncion in 1972 saw 5 Mineiro players sent off so points awarded to Olimpia

Olimpia Finals at home (Copa Libertadores)

Pld 6 W 3 D 2 L 1 GF 6 GA 2

Olimpia vs Brazilian (opposition) – For full article (in Spanish) click here

Olimpia vs Brazilian opposition - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia vs Brazilian opposition – Photo: D10.com.py

========================================

Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

Copa Libertadores 2013: Olimpia´s previous finals

Won three, lost three. Lost, won, lost, won, lost, won – that is the pattern of Olimpia’s previous six finals. They have played teams from Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile and Brazil in that order. This marks Olimpia and Atletico Mineiro’s first Copa Libertadores meeting outside of the group stages yet they have contested a continental final before. In 1992 the inaugaral Copa CONMEBOL was won by Mineiro who won 2-1 on aggregate having scored both goals in the first leg before losing the return in Asunción by a single strike.

But enough of this year’s battle, what about Olimpia’s other six finals? Here we take a look at how they’ve fared over the years.

1960: Olimpia vs Peñarol (Agg 1-2)

Having been given a bye in the first round which was also the quarter finals, Olimpia drew their first ever Copa Libertadores game 0-0 in Bogotá before thrashing Millonarios 5-1 in the return game in Puerto Sajonia (the predecessor to the Defensores del Chaco). Peñarol had blustered through the tournament thanks to six goals in five games from the great Alberto Spencer. It was the Ecuadorean who scored the only goal in Montevideo to take a slender lead to Asunción. With just under half an hour on the clock the Paraguayans had levelled the tie through 22-year-old forward Hipólito Recalde. But Paraguayan hearts were broken just seven minutes from time when another youngster, Luis “El Negro” Cubilla popped up with an equaliser to take the trophy for Peñarol.

The scorers in the 2nd leg, Cubilla (l) and Recalde (r) - Photo: Wikipedia

The scorers in the 2nd leg, Cubilla (l) and Recalde (r) – Photo: Wikipedia

Of course Cubilla would pay Olimpia back ten-fold as manager – winning 10 league titles, 2 Copa Libertadores and the biggest prize of all the Interncontinental Cup. And what of Recalde, the first Paraguayan to score in a continental final?  After retiring a few years later aged just 27 he worked in the Hotel Guaraní in Asunción for twenty years. Paraguayan football was pratically amateur in those days with bonuses the only way to make a living. “They were going to give us $150 if we won the second leg, and then there was the tiebreaker, that we were going to play in Buenos Aires.”  said Recalde in an interview with CONMEBOL years later  “But this gentleman [Referring to Luis Cubilla] ruined it for us!”

1979: Olimpia vs Boca Juniors (Agg 2-0)

The pinnacle for any Olimpia supporter, that first taste of continental success that would be followed by the ultimate global prize the interncontinental cup. The nucleus of this side also made up the Paraguayan team that won the Copa América in 1979, it was a glorious time for Olimpia and their supporters.  An estimated 50,000 of them had descended upon the Defensores del Chaco for the first leg and the raucous atmosphere seemed to have thrown Boca out of their stride, the Argentinians hopes of emulating Estudiantes and Independiente in winning a third straight title were dashed early on by Osvaldo Aquino. The 5ft 5in winger turned central midfielder made a huge impact after just two minutes, poking home to send the crowd into delirium. On 27 minutes the Franjeado had doubled their lead when the Uruguayan Miguel Angel Piazza scored from a freekick that bobbled along the floor and kicked up off a divot to deceive the great Hugo Gatti.

In the second leg they travelled to Buenos Aires with many assuming that Olimpia had already sold out to their more illustrious rivals knowing that they could lose this game and then play a tiebreaker. That assumption and line of questioning from journalists gave rise to the now immortal phrase from then-president Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb. When asked by a reporter if he had been bribed to throw the game, ODD responded “I didn’t come here for money, lad. I came here for glory.” before uttering  “You can’t put a price on glory”

And so it was, Olimpia toughed it out in front of a stunned Bombonera crowd who had gathered expecting to see a win but instead got a nil-nil draw and the ignominy of watching the Paraguayans do the lap of honour in front of them.  A maiden success for Olimpia.

1989: Olimpia vs Atletico Nacional (Agg 2-2; Pens 4-5)

Ten years on and while you can’t put a price on glory, you can put a price on human life. Having won the first leg comfortably in Asuncion (2-0 with the second goal a wonderful effort from Vidal Sanabria which you can see in the video further down the page) they faced a hostile atmosphere in Colombia where they took on an Atletico Nacional side bankrolled by druglord Pablo Escobar. There were certainly doubts about the Medellín team’s semi-final win against Danubio –  the officials that day have since confirmed they had been threatened and bribed – the Uruguayans lost the game 6-0.

The memory of those frightful times still loom large today, in the recent game against Santa Fe two Olimpia players received death threats and the manager Ever Almeida remarked “Nothing can be worse than 1989” when he played as goalkeeper. For more on Pablo Escobar’s influence in football then this is a good article (in Spanish).

Although Olimpia had successfully petitioned to have the game moved to Bogotá rather than Medellín they were unable to avoid a 2-0 defeat which sent the game penalties. In a notable shootout both goalkeepers, Almeida and René Higuita, were in the set of five initial takers and in sudden death the players missed seven straight kicks before Leonel Alvarez finally converted to win the trophy for the Verde.

1990: Olimpia vs Barcelona (Agg 3-1)

A year after the agony of losing the final on penalties the Paraguayans got their revenge in the semi-finals against Atletico Nacional. The defending champions had been banned from playing in Colombia after telephone death threats to the referee in the quarter final had come to light. Incredibly the game went to penalties again after Olimpia won on neutral ground in Santiago only to lose the home leg!

Olimpia 1990 Champions

Olimpia 1990 Champions

In the final they played Ecuadorian club Barcelona who had scraped through the groups in third place via a playoff and had also won a shootout in the semis against the mighty River Plate. Just as in 1979 and 1989, the 1st leg was played at home and Olimpia won 2-0 this time the goals coming from Raúl Amarilla´s head and the trusty left-foot of Adriano Samaniego who would finish topscorer with seven goals. In the return leg in Guayaquil they fell behind, Almeida made some great saves and one well-worked move saw Amarilla get a vital goal, it finished 1-1. Olimpia was “bicampeon”!

1991: Olimpia vs Colo-Colo (Agg 0-3)

The third final in a row for Olimpia and for the first time they couldn’t win at home, a goalless draw in Asunción put them on the back foot once they visited Santiago. That was despite filling the away team’s dressing room with spiders.  Their opponent´s manager was none other than Mirko Jozic who had unearthed Croatian talents Boban, Suker and Prosinecki who helped Yugoslavia win the U20s World Cup hosted by Chile in 1987. Once again he was successful on Chilean soil as his side proved too much for Olimpia, a first-half brace from Luis Perez and a late counter-attack goal from Leonel Herrera gave Colo Colo a famous win.

2002: Olimpia vs São Caetano (Agg 2-2; Pens 4-2)

Surprise package São Caetano from São Paulo state managed to reach the final having overcome giants such as Peñarol and Club América in the Quarter-Finals and Semi-Finals respecitvely. It seemed they were destined for glory when, in the first leg played in Defensores del Chaco, they became the only team to have beaten Olimpia away in a Copa Libertadores Final. The only goal coming from a mistake by Ricardo Tavarelli who couldn’t hold onto Ailton’s header in the 61st minute.

Olimpia win the shootout - Photo: Pasion Libertadores

Olimpia win the shootout – Photo: Pasion Libertadores

In the second leg, being played at the legendary Pacaembu, the Brazilians doubled their lead through Ailton after half an hour and it seemed that Olimpia were heading home with their tail between their legs. But that side was full of characters that refused to lose, Sergio Orteman, Nestor Isasi and Julio Cesar Cáceres to name but a few. They came flying out of the blocks and after 49 minutes were level, Gaston Cordoba lashing in a half volley. Ten minutes later a hopeful ball into the box was met by Richart Baez and his looping header levelled the tie.

Away goals didn’t apply back then nor was there any extra time as the game went straight to penalties. The Olimpia manager Nery Pumpido had thrown on strikers Mauro Caballero and Rodrigo López at the end of normal time and it paid off. While two Caetano subs, Marlon and Serginho, missed the third and fourth penalties in the shootout both López and Caballero scored to win the trophy and Olimpia had completed their hattrick of titles! As a footnote one of the São Caetano did do ok for himself, the performances of their defensive midfield earned him a move to Villarreal and six years later Marcos Senna was European Champion with Spain.

By Ralph Hannah

Copa Libertadores 2013: Olimpia´s road to the final

On Wednesday 17th July, Olimpia play Atletico Mineiro in their 7th Copa Libertadores Final as they become the only team to have reached the last two in every single decade since the competition began in 1960. It hasn’t been plain sailing though, they had to come through the qualifying round having failed to win either short season in 2012 and around November last year following the departure they were struggling to rack up enough points to even make the pot for the Libertadores draw.

Ever Almeida wants to win Olimpia's 4th Copa Libertadores - Photo: EFE

Ever Almeida wants to win Olimpia’s 4th Copa Libertadores – Photo: EFE

But they got over the line, Ever Almeida was brought in as coach to instill some of that winning mentality and use the experience that had seen him win 10 league titles and 6 continental trophies with El Decano as a player. The first qualifier came around so early, in January, that Almeida Sr. was still packing his bags for Paraguay and so his son Iván took charge of the game against Defensor Sporting in Montevideo, a dull 0-0 draw. In Asunción there were no problems however, the trusty head of Juan Carlos Ferreyra broke the deadlock before Eduardo Aranda sealed the win with a spectacular strike. With 16 shots on goal compared to Sporting’s five, there was never any doubt who deserved a place in Group 7.

Group Stages

Qualifying top from a group including Newell´s Old Boys and Universidad de Chile is no mean feat and this was where Olimpia really found themselves and Almeida showed his tactical nouse. They held out for over an hour in Rosario before being outdone by Tata Martino’s team in the opener but they demonstrated that despite not having the big names of 2012 this was a resolute side. Juan Manuel Salgueiro shined the next week against the Chileans, the Uruguayan would grow in confidence as the tournament wore on. Despite a slip up against Lara at home (throwing away a two-goal lead) they plastered the Venezuelans in Barquisimeto and played a classic counter-attacking game to edge La U in Santiago. By the time Newell´s visited the Defensores del Chaco there was no pressure on Olimpia who had already qualified. Playing with the shackles off they ran riot in the second half against the ten-man opposition and Salgueiro was the star once again with two goals, his second something special.

Breaking the Tigre curse

The unfashionable Tigre managed to reach the Copa Sudamericana final in 2012 beating Cerro Porteño of Paraguay in the process. In their first ever Copa Libertadores they qualified at Libertad´s expense with an incredible 5-3 victory, it was the first time since 2009 the Asuncion-based club had failed to reach the quarter finals. When Olimpia were beaten in Victoria it looked like the Tigre curse on Paraguayan clubs would continue, but Herminio Miranda’s vital away goal – a fantastic freekick – did give them some hope for the return leg.

Back in Asunción the Olimpia fans packed into the Defensores del Chaco which saw the first of the “mosaics” which have been a highlight of this campaign. The fans surely played their part as Olimpia recorded their third straight home win in clincial fashion. An excellent volley from Fredy Bareiro on his weaker left-foot put the Paraguayans level on aggregate (and ahead on away goals) while Papparatto’s comic own goal doubled the lead on the night and secured the passage into the last eight. Bareiro’s attempt was the only one on target in a tense second half.

Olimpia fans with their mosaic against Tigre - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia fans with their mosaic against Tigre – Photo: D10.com.py

Fluminense and Fred nullified

A stellar performance from Uruguayan goalkeeper Martin Silva was enough for Olimpia to come away from a tough game in Rio de Janeiro with a scoreless draw. Once again the return was in Sajonia and the players were received by a full house and another mosaic.

The second mosaic, this time against Fluminense - Photo: Taringa.com.py

The second mosaic, this time against Fluminense – Photo: Taringa.com.py

This time they couldn’t stop the Brazilians scoring, Fluminense needing just nine minutes to go in front, but Salgueiro struck twice from deadballs (a freekick and a penalty) to send the team into the final four. Star striker Fred would turn out for the national team scoring twice against Italy, Uruguay and Spain as they won the Confederations Cup, but he hadn’t been able to get one over on Miranda, Manzur or Martin (Silva).

Santa Fe spurned by the Silvas

The Colombians arrived in the Paraguayan capital looking to get stuck in and after a series of heavy fouls in a turgid first half they managed to bring the game to 10 vs 10 as perenniel early-bather Gerardo Bedoya was sent off yet again but managed to provoke playmaker Juan Manuel Salgueiro into some “palabrotas” (swear words) that was enough to see him get a straight red too. In theory Olimpia should have been clueless in the second forty -five minutes without their most creative player but Ever Almeida brought on Alejandro Silva in an inspired change, the subsitute’s pace too much for the Santa Fe defence. Silva won a penalty and then set up Juan Carlos Ferreyra (another halftime change) as Olimpia kept up their record of scoring at least two goals at home in every match. Watch the goals to my favourite commentator here.

There were doubts as to whether the two goals were enough to take to the altitude of Bogotá but one thing the doubters hadn’t factored in was the presence of Martin Silva. The 30-year-old was in inspired form again as he denied several goalscoring opportunities, eventually the Colombians got a goal but as they peppered their opponents in the dying minutes the big Uruguayan was on hand to keep everything out. Olimpia were going to the final.

Martin Silva pulls off another great stop vs Santa Fe - Photo: AFP

Martin Silva pulls off another great stop vs Santa Fe – Photo: AFP

By Ralph Hannah

Copa Libertadores 2013: Santa Fe vs Olimpia preview

Santa Fe vs Olimpia
El Campín, Bogotá
Semi Final 2nd Leg; Olimpia lead 2-0 on aggregate
09/07/2013; 20:50 (01:50 BST)
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK)

Here in Asunción you can feel it in the street, taste it in the air even there is a yearning for another Copa Libertadores final. Paraguayans aren’t necessarily very vocal but the number of Olimpia shirts on sale at the side of the road, the sharp increase in black and white flags on cars, the prevalence of “1979, 1990 and 2002” overheard in conversation all point to this sense of expecation. El Decano fans can feel the final coming they are already picturing Ever Almeida with his hands on a third Libertadores trophy with the club. But before we get too carried away, let’s remember that El Campín situated at 2560 metres above sea level is not the easiest place to visit. Olimpia have only ever won once in Colombia and they’ve never scored in this stadium, drawing their first ever Copa Libertadores game here vs Millonarios (1960) and losing 2-0 in the 1989 semi-final against Atletico Nacional.

Olimpia fans flocked to the airport to see of the team - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia fans flocked to the airport to see of the team – Photo: D10.com.py

We saw in the previous game that Almeida is so adaptable and seemed to get the better of Wilson Gutierrez responding with the Alejandro Silva substitution following the double sending off that ended up being decisive. The Uruguayan wing back was involved in both goals and his pace and positivity unnerved the Colombians. Undoubtedly they will look for a more defensive approach in the second leg but Silva could be used in a more attacking role allowing for the more conservative Mazacotte to retain his place in the starting XI. One of the key figures could be another Silva, Martin the goalkeeper was incredible against Fluminense in the previous away game in this tournament and if he keeps a cleansheet or only concedes one then Olimpia are definitely through.

Photo - Club Olimpia Oficial

Photo – Club Olimpia Oficial

There is no Bedoya due to his supsension but the front three of Cuero, Pérez and Wilder Medina will remain intact from the first leg. Jefferson Cuero certainly has the pace to trouble all of Olimipa’s three central defenders should he catch them one-on-one – the defensive role of the wing backs and Eduardo Aranda will be crucial once again. Assuming they don’t overstretch themselves they should be able to contain Santa Fe who have only managed more than 2 goals on one occassion in this year’s tournament.

Olimpia hope to keep up their claim as the "Rey de Copas" - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia hope to keep up their claim as the “Rey de Copas” – Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Julio Manzur, Herminio Miranda, Salustiano Candia; Ricardo Mazacotte, Nelson Benítez; Wilson Pittoni, Eduardo Aranda, Matías Giménez; Alejandro Silva, Fredy Bareiro

Santa Fe XI (probable):  Camilo Vargas; Juan Roa, Carlos Valdés, Francisco Meza, Marino García; Daniel Torres, John Valencia, Yulian Anchico, Jefferson Cuero, Omar Pérez , Wilder Medina

Prediction: 1-0

Selected Odds: Santa Fe win 1.56, Draw 4.5, Olimpia win 7.2, 1-0 win 6.4, Under 2.5 goals 1.87

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals for me, firstly there is Olimpia’s record in Colombia (matches there average 1.2 goals per game) and then there is Santa Fe’s home record in this year’s tournament (every single game has gone under 2.5 goals)

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia in Bogotá (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 2 W 0 D 1 L 1 GF 0 GA 2

Olimpia vs Colombian Opposition (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 23 W 11 D 7 L 5 GF 31 GA 18

Olimpia in Colombia (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 9 W 1 D 5 L 3 GF 4 GA 7

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Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

Copa Libertadores Semi Finals: Olimpia vs Santa Fe preview

Olimpia vs Santa Fe
Defensores del Chaco, Asuncion
Semi Final 1st Leg
02/07/2013; 20:50 (01:50 BST)
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK)

A new-look Olimpia take on Colombia’s Santa Fe in their 12th Copa Libertadores semi-final on Tuesday night. It is the biggest game for the club in over a decade, not since the Intercontinental Cup against the galaticos of Real Madrid in 2002 has there been so much importance riding on a game for the club. Confidence is high thanks to their excellent home form in the competition but Santa Fe are no pushovers as they currently chase an 8th Colombian title alongside the quest for a first continental trophy. For another preview on Olimpia you can check out my piece for Colo Futbol earlier this week.

Silva was on top form in the first leg - Photo: D10.com.py

Silva is back from international duty – Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia have been hit by the loss of captain Richard Ortiz who moved to Toluca and the tragic news that left-back Sebastian Ariosa is undergoing chemotherapy as he battles cancer. On the positive side there have been three reinforcements from Argentina as Nelson Benítez and Matías Gimenez join to bolster the left-hand side and in defence the Paraguayan international Ricardo Mazacotte returns from a stint at Unión Santa Fe to reunite himself with Almedia who coached him in 2009 at Nacional. All the new signings will play tomorrow as will Martin Silva who has returned from the Confederations Cup in time. The real danger will be up front and is provided by the Juan Manuel Salguiero and Fredy Bareiro partnership that has reaped goals so far in the tournament. Salgueiro’s performance will be key as he tries to keep possession and control the rhythm of the game.

Olimpia fans with their mosaic against Tigre - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia have sold out the stadium again – Photo: D10.com.py

Santa Fe have already visited Asunción once this year, successfully defeating Cerro Porteño with two Omar Perez penalties. Evidently Tuesday’s match will be a much tougher challenge against a more organized side, the key will be if Wilder Medina can see a lot of the ball and try and pull some strings. In midfield the combative Gerardo Bedoya is likely to play, he has been sent off at least 40 times in his career so expect the tackles to be on the heavy side!

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Julio Manzur, Herminio Miranda, Salustiano Candia; Ricardo Mazacotte, Nelson Benítez; Wilson Pittoni, Eduardo Aranda, Matías Giménez; Juan Manuel Salgueiro, Fredy Bareiro

Santa Fe XI (probable):  Vargas; Anchico, Valdez, Meza, García; Bedoya, Torres, Valencia; Pérez; Medina, Cuero

Prediction: 2-1

Selected Odds: Olimpia win 2.18, Draw 3.9, Santa Fe win 3.45, 2-1 win 10.5, Over 2.5 goals 2.46

Best Bet: Been impressed with Olimpia at home in this tournament so I think evens is good value, will be backing them to win. Over 2.5 goals is tempting too although I can’t be sure Santa Fe will score away.

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia in Asunción (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 218 W 112 D 59 L 47 GF 353 GA 220

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Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

Copa Libertadores 2013: Olimpia vs Fluminense preview

Olimpia vs Fluminense
Estadio Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
29/05/2013; 21:00 (02:00 BST)
Quarter Final, 2nd Leg – 0-0 aggregate
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK)

Another record crowd, another night full of expectation in the Defensores del Chaco as Olimpia look for a place in the final four on the quest for their fourth Libertadores title. Fluminense will have cursed the name of Martin Silva several times last week as the big Uruguayan pulled off save after save to earn a valuable cleansheet for the Paraguayan side.

Silva was on top form in the first leg - Photo: D10.com.py

Silva was on top form in the first leg – Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia have been surprisingly inconsistent defensively this year, they began 2013 with four cleansheets in five games – something they repeated between March and April – but they have still managed to concede 3 goals on seven separate occassions in their 26 competitive games this season. Although they looked fairly toothless in the first leg that was more in order to protect their own goal rather than a general scoring problem. In fact, Olimpia are averaging 2.6 goals at home in this season’s competition having never failed to score less than two goals to date. Salgueiro and Bareiro are the top scorers in the Defensores with 3 goals a piece but they will probably be accompanied by Juan Carlos Ferreyra to offer more of a presence up front.

Olimpia fans with their mosaic against Tigre - Photo: D10.com.py

Olimpia fans with their mosaic against Tigre – Photo: D10.com.py

Undoubtedly Fluminense were on top in the previous game and the energy of Rahyner was particularly hard for El Decano to deal with. They are expected to line up with the same team which is interesting considering the changes of personnel in the opposition. They are currently on a poor run of four away games without a win in the Copa Libertadores knockout stages, something they’ll be hoping to end tonight although a score-draw would see them through.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Salustiano Candia, Herminio Miranda, Julio Manzur; Richard Salinas, Jorge Baez, FAbio Caballero, Richard Ortiz; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Fredy Bareiro, Juan Carlos Ferreyra

Fluminense XI (probable): Diego Cavalieri, Bruno, Digão, Leandro Euzébio, Carlinhos; Edinho, Jean, Wagner; Wellington Nem, Rhayner, Fred.

Prediction: 2-1

Selected Odds: Olimpia win 2.78, Draw 4.4, Fluminense win 2.88, 2-1 win 11.0, Over 2.5 goals 2.18

Best Bet: BTTS looks the way to go with both teams needing to score to qualify, also while Olimpia have the capability of scoring I’m unconvinced they have the defense to stop the Brazilians finding the net at least once.

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia vs Brazilian opposition (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 76 W 22 D 22 L 32 GF 91 GA 117

Olimpia in Asunción (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 217 W 111 D 59 L 47 GF 351 GA 219

Last time Olimpia drew the 1st leg away from home 0-0 they won the return 2-0 to progress – that was in the preliminary round versus Defensor Sporting

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Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

For more football previews check out CaStRoF’s betting tips

Copa Libertadores 2013: Fluminense vs Olimpia preview

Fluminense vs Olimpia
Estadio São Januario, Rio de Janeiro
21/05/2013; 21:00 (02:00 BST)
Quarter Final, 1st Leg
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK)

Olimpia are amongst the best 8 teams in South America and alongside Boca Juniors the only former champions still remaining in this year’s tournament. It has been an emotional (and lucrative) journey so far that not many would have precited after the opening game of their campaign, a drab 0-0 draw in the Preliminary round.  Tonight they face a team that also reached the quarter finals last year only to be knocked out by Boca Juniors, Brazil’s Fluminense are one of the most expensive squads in the competition with players such as Fred, Rafael Sobis and Deco in their ranks.

Photo: Club Olimpia Oficial

Photo: Club Olimpia Oficial

Olimpia haven’t met Fluminense before in international competition but the bad news is that they have never won in Rio de Janeiro in six attempts, drawing three and losing three. The most recent game was a thrilling 3-3 draw with Flamengo when El Decano scored a hattrick of goals in just 15 minutes to level the game. Incidentally the previous two times they won the cup (1990 and 2002) they also played games in Rio. The team is likely to be very similar to the line-up that defeated Tigre in the previous round, once again all eyes are on Fredy Bareiro up front who has found the net five times and sits just one goal behind topscorer Jô. In defence Herminio Miranda has been a revelation with his goalscoring and Salustiano Candia has been relatively impressive to date – they will have a difficult task tonight trying to contain Fluminense.

Current squad pay homage to the former winners - Photo: D10.com.py

Current squad pay homage to the former winners – Photo: D10.com.py

Apart from the danger of former Lyon striker Fred, Olimpia have to contend with the confined surroundings of one of South America’s most intimidating arenas – the São Januario holds just 25,000 people but on entering the pitch the Paraguayan club will feel that the whole crowd are on top of them trying to squeeze the life out of them. Keep an eye out on referee Roberto Silvera’s performance as the Uruguayan will have a tough job in font of this crowd.

Fluminense XI (possible): Diego Cavalieri, Bruno, Digão, Leandro Euzébio, Carlinhos; Edinho, Jean, Wagner; Wellington Nem, Rhayner, Fred.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Salustiano Candia, Herminio Miranda, Julio Manzur; Richard Salinas, Jorge Baez, Eduardo Aranda, Richard Ortiz, Sebastián Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Fredy Bareiro

Prediction: 1-1

Selected Odds: Fluminense win 1.5, Draw 4.4, Olimpia win 8.2, 1-1 draw 8.4, Under 2.5 goals 1.82

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals – just one of Flu’s home games went over (a 0-3 reverse to Grêmio) and expect this match to be tight with Olimpia unlikely to over-committ themselves.

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia vs Brazilian opposition (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 75 W 22 D 21 L 32 GF 91 GA 117

Olimpia in Rio de Janeiro (Copa Libertadores)

Pld 4 W 0 D 3 L 1 GF 4 GA 5

Olimpia’s results on 22nd of the month in continental comps – W 4 D 1 L 3

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Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

For more football previews check out CaStRoF’s betting tips

Copa Libertadores 2013: Olimpia vs Tigre preview

Olimpia vs Tigre
Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
16/05/2013; 19:00 (00:00 BST)
Last 16, 2nd Leg; 1-2 agg
TV: Fox Sports (Latin America); ESPN (UK)

Expect an electric atmosphere despite the cold temperatures forecasted in Asunción tonight – Olimpia have been building up to this fixture for over a week with seats selling like hot chipa, in fact it is set to break the record for the highest ever gate receipts for a sporting event in Paraguay. Tigre lead 2-1 from the first leg but they are without star man Ruben Botta, injured in that game, and are not usually as strong on their travels. Ever Almeida’s team have plenty to be optimistic about.

Photo: Club Olimpia Oficial

Photo: Club Olimpia Oficial

Olimpia need to score to qualify, something that shouldn’t be a problem for the side that average over two goals per game in this year’s tournament, in fact their average over the last two years of Copa Libertadores football is 1.9 goals per game. If they do score it will be their 350th continental goal scored in Asunción, an important landmark. The man most likely to get that goal is Fredy Bareiro although we should watch out for Herminio Miranda – he followed up his freekick against Tigre in the first leg with another one last weekend. With El Decano likely to score the onus is really on the backline to comply with their end of the deal, a cleansheet maybe beyond them with injury to Kike Meza meaning Manzur is included in the central defensive trio, he is a bit slower than the rest and could be vulnerable to the counter.

Poor defending of crosses cost Olimpia in the first game

Poor defending of crosses cost Olimpia in the first game

Tigre are without Ruben Botta as mentioned above but it is worth repeating as it is a huge blow to the Argentine side managed by former Copa Libertadores winner Nestor Gorosito. Knowing that a cleansheet will get them through there is a temptation for them to defend and sit back, in fact that is their usual tactic but Olimpia must be aware of their danger on the counter-attack. The speed and incisiveness of Tigre’s play on the break has already put pay to Cerro Porteño and Libertad in last year and this year respectively. The burning question is if they can be as effective without Botta.

One thing worth pointing out is that Tigre were beneficiaries of the referee in the previous game something that often happens with home teams – Olimpia are home tonight, their supporters will do their best to ensure the 50/50 decisions go the Paraguayans way.

Olimpia XI (probable): Martín Silva; Salustiano Candia, Herminio Miranda, Julio Manzur; Aquilino Gimenez, Alejandro Silva, Eduardo Aranda, Richard Ortiz, Sebastián Ariosa; Juan Manuel Salgueiro; Fredy Bareiro

Tigre XI (probable): Javier García; Alejandro Donatti, Mariano Echeverría, Norberto Paparatto, Lucas Orban; Martin Galmarini, Gabriel Peñalba, Ramiro Leone, Diego Ferreira, Matías Perez García; Leandro Leguizamon

Prediction: 3-1

Selected Odds: Olimpia win 1.96, Draw 3.75, Tigre win 4.3, 3-1 home win 17.5, Over 2.5 goals 1.89

Best Bet: Home win for me, Tigre are without Botta, they don’t travel well while Olimpia’s fans will create a special atmosphere tonight to spur on the team

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Stats and Trivia

Olimpia vs Argentine opposition (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 61 W 22 D 17 L 23 GF 77 GA 86

Olimpia in Asunción (All Continental Competitions)

Pld 216 W 110 D 59 L 47 GF 349 GA 219

Olimpia’s only other Copa Libertadores games on 16th May were also in Asunción, a 3-0 victory over Palestino of Chile in 1979 and 1-0 vs Boca in 2002, two years in which they won the tournament. Good omen or what?

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Authors Note: All odds are selected from Betfair Sports and accurate at the time of writing, there is a live market on this game

For more football previews check out CaStRoF’s betting tips